Assessing eco-scarcity as a cause of the outbreak of conflict in Darfur: a remote sensing approach
Open accessAbstract
The conflict in Darfur, Western Sudan, is frequently represented in the media as a dispute over access to resources by competing communities. Environmental degradation is often cited as either a causal or a contributory factor to the outbreak of the conflict and its prolongation. In this paper, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data are used as a measure of ‘eco-scarcity’ to assess the notion that the outbreak of conflict was the result of competition for resources between communities. It is shown that there is no evidence in the vegetation mapping for a worsening of the ecological situation in Western and Northern Darfur states around the outbreak of the conflict. On the contrary, the years prior to the outbreak of the conflict experienced better than average vegetation growth in the context of the past 25 years.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Most studies of outbreak of armed conflict typically find only weak climate effects.
“In contrast, most studies of outbreak of armed conflict typically find only weak climate effects (e.g.,94, 101, 172, 173).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [172]
Cites
Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation
Tucker, C. J. (1979) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/0034-4257(79)90013-0 · Cited by 11,933 · see citing works
A soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI)
HUETE, A. R. (1988) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/0034-4257(88)90106-x · Cited by 8,034 · see citing works
An extended AVHRR 8‐km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data
Tucker, C. J., Pinzón, J. E. D., Brown, M. E., Slayback, D. A., Pak, E. W., Mahoney, R. L., Vermote, E. F., & Saleous, N. (2005) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431160500168686 · Cited by 2,310 · see citing works
Armed Conflict and The Environment: A Critique of the Literature
Gleditsch, N. P. (1998) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343398035003007 · Cited by 521 · see citing works
Brown, M. E., Pinzón, J. E. D., Didan, K., Morisette, J. T., & Tucker, C. J. (2006) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2005.860205 · Cited by 367 · see citing works
Fairhead, J. R., & Leach, M. (1995) · World Development · doi:10.1016/0305-750x(95)00026-9 · Cited by 335 · see citing works
Response of seasonal vegetation development to climatic variations in eastern central Asia
Yu, F., Price, K. P., Ellis, J. E., & Shi, P. (2003) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/s0034-4257(03)00144-5 · Cited by 332 · see citing works
AVHRR derived phenological change in the Sahel and Soudan, Africa, 1982–2005
Heumann, B. W., Seaquist, J., Eklundh, L., & Jönsson, P. (2007) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.11.025 · Cited by 330 · see citing works
Nordås, R., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2007) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.003 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Nordås, R., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-10954-1_3 · Cited by 290 · see citing works
Blood and Soil? Resource Scarcity and Internal Armed Conflict Revisited
Theisen, O. M. (2008) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343308096157 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Desertification in the Sahel: a reinterpretation of a reinterpretation
Prince, S. D., Wessels, K., Tucker, C. J., & Nicholson, S. E. (2007) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01356.x · Cited by 160 · see citing works
Kevane, M., & Gray, L. C. (2008) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034006 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Leach, M., & Fairhead, J. R. (2000) · Development and Change · doi:10.1111/1467-7660.00146 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Agricultural land use pattern dynamics in the Sudan–Sahel—towards an event-driven framework
Reenberg, A. (2001) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/s0264-8377(01)00020-5 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Use of low cost Landsat ETM+ to spot burnt villages in Darfur, Sudan
Prins, E. (2007) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431160701730110 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Civilization's Wake: Ecology, Economics and the Roots of Environmental Destruction and Neglect
Smith, J., & Sauer-Thompson, G. (1998) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1023/a:1024616725080 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
State of forest genetic resources in Sudan
Elmahi, A. G., Elshiekh, A., Ibrahim, A. E. M., & Warrag, I. I. (2001) · Cited by 5 · see citing works
The New Myth About Climate Change
Salehyan, I. (2007) · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 20 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict
Gleditsch, N. (2012) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343311431288 · Cited by 394 · see citing works
Martin-Shields, C. P., & Stojetz, W. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.011 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?
Theisen, O. M., Gleditsch, N., & Buhaug, H. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0649-4 · Cited by 240 · see citing works
Climate wars? assessing the claim that drought breeds conflict
Theisen, O. M., Holtermann, H., & Buhaug, H. (2012) · International Security · doi:10.1162/isec_a_00065 · Cited by 234 · see citing works
Do natural resources matter for interstate and intrastate armed conflict?
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Böhmelt, T., & Bernauer, T. (2013) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343313493455 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change
Buhaug, H., & von Uexkull, N. (2021) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
Beyond scarcity: rethinking water, climate change and conflict in the Sudans
Selby, J., & Hoffmann, C. (2014) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.01.008 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Natural resources and conflict: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature
Vesco, P., Dasgupta, S., Cian, E. D., & Carraro, C. (2020) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106633 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
van Baalen, S., & Mobjörk, M. (2017) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/vix043 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Remote sensing of violent conflict: eyes from above
Witmer, F. D. W. (2015) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431161.2015.1035412 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Ide, T. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0115-0 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003–2005
De Juan, A. (2015) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.09.001 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Satellite-Observed Nighttime Light Variation as Evidence for Global Armed Conflicts
Li, X., Chen, F., & Chen, X. (2013) · IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/jstars.2013.2241021 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Witmer, F. D. W., & Ο’Loughlin, J. (2011) · GIScience & Remote Sensing · doi:10.2747/1548-1603.48.4.478 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Vesco, P., Kovačič, M., Mistry, M., & Croicu, M. (2021) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343320971020 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Remote Sensing for International Peace and Security: Its Role and Implications
Avtar, R., Kouser, A., Aggarwal, A. K., Singh, D., Misra, P., Gupta, A. K., Yunus, A. P., Kumar, P., Johnson, B. A., Dasgupta, R., et al. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13030439 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Scarcity and Abundance Revisited: A Literature Review on Natural Resources and Conflict
Mildner, S.-A., Lauster, G., & Wodni, W. (2010) · doi:10.4119/ijcv-2852 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Drought, migration, and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: what are the links and policy options?
Adaawen, S., Rademacher‐Schulz, C., Schraven, B., & Segadlo, N. (2019) · Current directions in water scarcity research · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-814820-4.00002-x · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Ongoing Conflict Makes Yemen Dark: From the Perspective of Nighttime Light
Jiang, W., He, G., Long, T., & Liu, H. (2017) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs9080798 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
A local to global perspective on resource governance and conflict
Schilling, J., Saulich, C., & Engwicht, N. (2018) · Conflict Security and Development · doi:10.1080/14678802.2018.1532641 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Adaawen, S. (2021) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos12050594 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Fischhendler, I., Herman, L., & David, L. (2021) · New Political Economy · doi:10.1080/13563467.2021.1903850 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Coscieme, L., Sutton, P. C., Anderson, S., Liu, Q., & Elvidge, C. D. (2016) · GIScience & Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/15481603.2016.1260676 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Pathways, Regional Links, and Case Studies
Ide, T., Link, P., Scheffran, J., & Schilling, J. (2016) · Hexagon series on human and environmental security and peace · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-43884-9_12 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Armed conflict and mining induced land-use transition in northern Nimba County, Liberia
Enaruvbe, G. O., Keculah, K. M., Atedhor, G. O., & Osewole, A. O. (2019) · Global Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00597 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Hileman, J. D., Hicks, P., & Jones, R. (2015) · International Journal of Water Resources Development · doi:10.1080/07900627.2015.1076719 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Trummer, U. F., Ali, T. E., Mosca, D., Mukuruva, B., Mwenyango, H., & Novak-Zezula, S. (2023) · Journal of Migration and Health · doi:10.1016/j.jmh.2023.100151 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Natural resources governance and geopolitical risks: A literature review and bibliometric analysis
Yu, J., Wang, S., & Yang, W. (2023) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104299 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
War Impacts Studies Using Remote Sensing
Al-doski, J. (2013) · IOSR Journal of Applied Geology and Geophysic · doi:10.9790/0990-0121115 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Local sources of vulnerability to climate change and armed conflicts in East Africa
Cappelli, F., Costantini, V., D’Angeli, M., Marin, G., & Paglialunga, E. (2024) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120403 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Bromwich, B. (2015) · International Journal of Water Resources Development · doi:10.1080/07900627.2015.1030495 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Peri-urbanisation and land conflicts in Domboshava, Zimbabwe
Mudapakati, C. P., Bandauko, E., Chaeruka, J., & Arku, G. (2024) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107222 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Nwankwo, C. F. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106824 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Obukhov, T., & Brovelli, M. A. (2023) · ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information · doi:10.3390/ijgi12080322 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Schöepfer, E., Spröhnle, K., Kranz, O., Blaes, X., Kolomazník, J., Hilgert, F., Bartaloš, T., & Kemper, T. (2016) · Geocarto International · doi:10.1080/10106049.2016.1195885 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Lin, Y., Gao, C., Yu, J., Li, L., Chen, X., Yang, Y., & Zhong, D. (2024) · IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/jstars.2024.3449394 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Renewable Resource Shocks and Conflict in India's Maoist BeltPreprint
Kapur, D., Gawande, K., & Satyanath, S. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2226497 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The Logic of Open Grazing in Nigeria: Interrogating The Effect on Sustainable Development
Chukwuemeka, E. E. O., Aduma, A., & Eneh, M. I. (2018) · International Journal of Family Business and Management · doi:10.15226/2577-7815/2/1/00114 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
A political ecology analysis of tourism development and water equity in Barbados
Carter, D. J. (2023) · Journal of Political Ecology · doi:10.2458/jpe.3002 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Unpacking water conflicts in Africa: exploring key drivers
Konečná, L. (2024) · Small Wars & Insurgencies · doi:10.1080/09592318.2024.2429050 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Environmental impact of natural resources on terrorism in Africa
Ajide, K. B., & Alimi, O. Y. (2021) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102133 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Northern Kordofan State of Sudan: A Remotely Sensed Data Analysis
Dafalla, M. S., Abdel-Rahman, E. M., Siddig, K., Ibrahim, I. S., & Csaplovics, E. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-02720-3_15 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Gleditsch, N. (2015) · SpringerBriefs on pioneers in science and practice · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-03820-9_9 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Does scarcity induce hostility? An experimental investigation of common-pool resources
Geschwind, S., & Lambsdorff, J. G. (2024) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108388 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Nils Petter Gleditsch: Pioneer in the Analysis of War and Peace
Gleditsch, N. P. (2015) · SpringerBriefs on pioneers in science and practice · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-03820-9 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Marriage of Inconvenience Between Herders and Farmers in Nigeria: Can Elephant and Hippo Tango?
Iloanya, K. O., Chukwuemeka, E. E. O., & Ananti, M. (2018) · Journal of Public Management Research · doi:10.5296/jpmr.v4i1.13330 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Landsat approaches to map agro-pastoral farming in the wetlands of southern Sudan
Prins, E. (2017) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431161.2017.1392634 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Ide, T. (2015) · MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Martin-Shields, C., & Stojetz, W. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2970936 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Marriage of inconvenience between herders and farmers in Nigeria: can elephant and hippo tango?
Iloanya, K. O., & Ananti, M. (2018) · Arts & Humanities Open Access Journal · doi:10.15406/ahoaj.2018.02.00082 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Cao, Y., Wang, Y., Xiao, S., & Xiao, L. (2025) · Agriculture · doi:10.3390/agriculture15060579 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Idris, I. A., Adam, E., Abutaleb, K. A. A., & Abaker, A. O. I. (2025) · Cogent Social Sciences · doi:10.1080/23311886.2025.2555384 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Change We Can Fight Over: The Relationship between Arable Land Supply and Substate Conflict
Black, N. (2010) · Calhoun: The Naval Postgraduate School Institutional Archive (Naval Postgraduate School) · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Environmental impacts of war’s social consequences. Case Study: Aleppo Governorate Syria
Παπαδημητρίου, Κ., Koumoulidis, D., Papalamprou, L., Kasimatis, C.-N., Sparangis, P., Katsenios, N., Vlachakis, D., Triantakonstantis, D., & Efthimiadou, Α. (2021) · EMBnet journal · doi:10.14806/ej.26.1.965 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Lind, J., Nicol, A., Guha‐Sapir, D., Gupte, J., Justino, P., & Longley, C. (2012)
Climate Change, Conflict, Complexity and Health
Butler, C. D., Braidwood, M., & Bowles, D. C. (2024) · CABI eBooks · doi:10.1079/9781800620025.0024
Climate Change and Armed Conflict in the Horn of Africa Region
Tawane, A. A. (2025) · International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology · doi:10.32628/ijsrst2411482
When scarcity intensifies conflict: On the role of asymmetry in common-pool resource games
Geschwind, S., Lambsdorff, J. G., & Werner, K. (2026) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108963
Is it abundance or scarcity? Reassessing freshwater resources and civil war onset (1960–2023)
Suh, S. (2026) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107605
- Authors
- Brown, I. A.
- Affiliations
- Stockholm University (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Brown, Ian A.
- ORCID
- Brown, Ian A.
- Venue
- International Journal of Remote Sensing
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2010-05-17
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 2513-2520
- ISSN
- 0143-1161 (ISSN-L)
- 1366-5901
- OpenAlex
- W2095287262
- Cited by
- 60
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 4 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 13.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- International Journal of Remote Sensing (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Stockholms Universitet
- Goddard Space Flight Center
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Keywords
- Darfur conflict, resource competition, environmental degradation, conflict onset, vegetation growth, NDVI, vegetation mapping
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review