Impacts of automated vehicles on travel behaviour and land use: an international review of modelling studies
Open accessAbstract
Automated vehicles (AVs) could completely change mobility in the coming years and decades. As AVs are still under development and gathering empirical data for further analysis is not yet possible, existing studies mainly applied models and simulations to assess their impact. This paper provides a comprehensive review of modelling studies investigating the impacts of AVs on travel behaviour and land use. It shows that AVs are mostly found to increase vehicle miles travelled and reduce public transport and slow modes share. This particularly applies to private AVs, which are also leading to a more dispersed urban growth pattern. Shared automated vehicle fleets, conversely, could have positive impacts, including reducing the overall number of vehicles and parking spaces. Moreover, if it is assumed that automation would make the public transport system more efficient, AVs could lead to a favouring of urbanisation processes. However, results are very sensitive to model assumptions which are still very uncertain (e.g. the perception of time in AVs) and more research to gain further insight should have priority in future research as well as the development of the models and their further adaptation to AVs.
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Policy reports from governments and other institutions are not considered in both Milakis et al. (2017) and Soteropoulos et al. (2018).
“Also, policy reports from governments and other institutions are not considered in both reviews.”
From Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review (2020) · cites this paper as Soteropoulos et al. (2018)
The References list Gelauff et al. (2017) as a publication of the Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis. Sections 2.2 and 3.2 discuss that work among the modelling studies reviewed, so this review did consider a report from a government institution. Our copy does not establish what Milakis et al. considered. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIntroduction of SAV services will result in urbanisation.
“Gelauff et al. (2017) and Soteropoulos et al. (2018) indicate that introduction of SAV services will result in urbanisation.”
From Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review (2020) · cites this paper as Soteropoulos et al., 2018
Section 3.2 reports urbanisation in a model assuming SAVs with ridesharing and no change in the value of time, but says SAV land-use effects are mixed. The conclusion likewise says SAVs under those conditions could increase urban populations; it does not support the unconditional prediction that introducing SAV services will result in urbanisation. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMilakis et al. (2017) and Soteropoulos et al. (2018) discuss impacts of automated and autonomous vehicles without focusing in detail on some aspects, such as impacts on entertainment and advertising industries.
“Milakis et al. (2017) and Soteropoulos et al. (2018) discuss the impacts of automated and autonomous vehicles in general, without focusing in detail to some aspects, such as impacts on entertainment and advertising industries.”
From Shared autonomous vehicle services: A comprehensive review (2020) · cites this paper as Soteropoulos et al. (2018)
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- Authors
- Soteropoulos, A., Berger, M., & Ciari, F.
- Affiliations
- TU Wien (AT)
- Joanneum Research (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Soteropoulos, Aggelos
- Venue
- Transport Reviews
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2018-09-28
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 29-49
- ISSN
- 0144-1647 (ISSN-L)
- 1464-5327
- OpenAlex
- W2893974486
- Cited by
- 414
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 58 · 2022: 72 · 2021: 70 · 2020: 68 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 1 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 21.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Transport Reviews (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- PolyPublie (École Polytechnique de Montréal) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Daimler und Benz Stiftung
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Urban Transport and Accessibility
- Keywords
- autonomous vehicles, travel behavior, land use, vehicle miles traveled, slow modes, shared automated vehicles, urban expansion, parking demand, urbanization, model assumptions, travel time perception
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