Alternative Approaches to Modeling the Travel-Demand Impacts of Smart Growth
Open accessAbstract
Four-step travel demand forecasting models were never meant to estimate the travel impacts of neighborhood-level smart growth initiatives like transit villages, but rather to guide regional highway and transit investments. While progress has been made in enhancing large-scale models, some analysts have turned to post-processing and direct models to reduce modeling time and cost, and to better capture the travel impacts of neighborhood-scale land use strategies. This paper presents examples of direct or off-line modeling of rail and transit-oriented land use proposals for greater Charlotte, the San Francisco Bay Area exurbs, and south St. Louis County. These alternative approaches provided a useful platform for scenario testing, and their results revealed that concentrating development near rail stations produced an appreciable ridership bonus. These alternative models are appropriate as sketch-planning supplements to, not substitutes for, traditional four-step models.
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Conventional four-step travel demand models are relatively insensitive to the D variables, failing to account for the full effects of the built environment on travel outputs at each step.
“A flaw of the four-step model is its relative insensitivity to the so-called D variables.”
From Key Enhancements to the WFRC/MAG Four-Step Travel Demand Model (2019) · cites this paper as Cervero, 2006
Vehicle ownership and household size are the most common inputs to household trip generation in the conventional process, and their effects carry through all remaining steps.
“Vehicle ownership and household size are the most common inputs to household trip generation in the conventional process, and the effects carry through all the remaining steps (Cervero, 2006; Kitamura, 2009; Mwakalonge and Badoe, 2014).”
From Key Enhancements to the WFRC/MAG Four-Step Travel Demand Model (2019) · cites this paper as Cervero, 2006
In the conventional four-step process, fine-grained land use mixes, local street connectivity, and pedestrian amenities do not influence intrazonal trip estimates.
“He asserts that in the conventional four-step process, “fine-grained land use mixes, local street connectivity, and pedestrian amenities, do not influence intrazonal trip estimates.””
From Key Enhancements to the WFRC/MAG Four-Step Travel Demand Model (2019) · cites this paper as Cervero, 2006
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Research works printed but not linked: 7
- Bernick, M., & Cervero, R. (1997). Transit villages for the 21st century. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Cervero, R. (1994). Transit-based housing in California: Evidence on ridership impacts. Transportation Policy, 1(3), 174–183.
- Institute of Tra ed.). Washingto Institute of Transportation Engineers. (2003). Trip generation (7th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.
- Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc., Cervero, R., Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc., & Zupan, J. (1996). Commuter and light rail transit corridors: The land use connection (Transit Cooperative Research Program Report 16: Transit and Urban Form, Vol. 1, Part I1). Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board.
- Pas, E. (1995). The urban transportation planning process. In S. Hanson (Ed.), The geography of urban transportation (pp. 53–77). New York: Guilford Press.
- Waddell, P. (2000). A behavioral simulation model for metropolitan policy analysis and planning: Residential location and housing market components of UrbanSim. Environment and Planning B, 27 (2), 247-263.
- Waddell, P. (2002). UrbanSim: Modeling urban development for land use, transportation, and environmental planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 297–314.
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Key Enhancements to the WFRC/MAG Four-Step Travel Demand Model
University of Utah, Ewing, R., Sabouri, S., University of Utah, Park, K., University of Utah, Lyons, T., University of Utah, Tian, G., & University of Utah (2019) · doi:10.15760/trec.246 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
- Authors
- Cervero, R.
- Corresponding author
- Cervero, Robert
- Venue
- Journal of the American Planning Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2006-09-30
- Volume
- 72
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 285-295
- ISSN
- 0194-4363 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-0130
- OpenAlex
- W2011572448
- Cited by
- 262
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 21 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 20.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of the American Planning Association (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Urban Transport and Accessibility
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Keywords
- smart growth, travel demand modeling, transit-oriented development, four-step travel demand model, direct modeling, post-processing, land use and transportation interaction, scenario-based testing, sketch planning
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