The DOI matches its Crossref record; 11 of the 11 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Reversing Arrows in Mediation Models Does Not Distinguish Plausible Models
Abstract
Reversing arrows in the classic tri-variate X-M-Y mediation models as a test to check whether one mediation model is superior to another is inadmissible. Presenting evidence that one tri-variate mediation model yields a significant indirect effect, whereas one with some reversed arrows does not, is not proof or even evidence that one model should be preferred. In fact, the significance of the indirect or any other effect can never be used to infer whether one model should be preferred over another, if the models are in the same so-called equivalence class. The practice of running several mediation models with reversed arrows to decide which model to prefer should be abandoned. The only way to choose among equivalent models is through assumptions that are either fulfilled by design features or invoked based on theory. Similar arguments about reversing arrows in mediation models have been made before, but this current work is the first to derive this result analytically for the complete (Markovian) equivalence class of the tri-variate mediation model.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“However, several recent publications, such as Thoemmes (2015) and Lemmer and Gollwitzer (2017), showed that it is not possible to determine merely on a statistical basis which of the different models we could define within the same set of three variables (a so-called equivalence class) is the most plausible.”
From Mindfulness, Interpretation Bias, and Levels of Anxiety and Depression: Two Mediation Studies (2019) · cites this paper as Thoemmes (2015)
Citations
Cites
Introduction to Statistical Mediation Analysis
MacKinnon, D. P. (2012) · doi:10.4324/9780203809556 · Cited by 5,618
CAUSALITY: MODELS, REASONING AND INFERENCE
Hitchcock, C., & Pearl, J. (2001) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.2307/3182612 · Cited by 4,827
Equivalence of the Mediation, Confounding and Suppression Effect
MacKinnon, D. P., Krull, J. L., & Lockwood, C. M. (2000) · Prevention Science · doi:10.1023/a:1026595011371 · Cited by 4,188
Fredrickson, B. L., Tugade, M. M., Waugh, C. E., & Larkin, G. R. (2003) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.84.2.365 · Cited by 2,797
Coefficients of Inbreeding and Relationship
Wright, S. (1922) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/279872 · Cited by 2,226
Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference
Shanmugam, R. (2001) · Neurocomputing · doi:10.1016/s0925-2312(01)00330-7 · Cited by 1,377
The problem of equivalent models in applications of covariance structure analysis.
MacCallum, R. C., Wegener, D. T., Uchino, B. N., & Fabrigar, L. R. (1993) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.114.1.185 · Cited by 912
What mediation analysis can (not) do
Fiedler, K., Schott, M., & Meiser, T. (2011) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2011.05.007 · Cited by 609
Causal Inference and Causal Explanation with Background KnowledgePreprint
Meek, C. (2013) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1302.4972 · Cited by 378
Stelzl, I. (1986) · Multivariate Behavioral Research · doi:10.1207/s15327906mbr2103_3 · Cited by 195
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Chen B., Psychometrika
- Thoemmes, F., Liao, W. & Yamasaki, M. (2014). The Markov equivalence class of the mediation model . Paper presented at the annual Modern Modeling Methods Conference, Storrs, CT.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 201–208 of 208
Co‐Creation, Platformization, and Public Service Effectiveness in a Developing Governance Context
Ly, B. (2026) · Public Administration and Development · doi:10.1002/pad.70091
Qian, M., Fang, Y., & Yan, C. (2026) · Interactive Learning Environments · doi:10.1080/10494820.2026.2696365
Mindfulness at Work: How Strong Is the Scientific Evidence?
Sajons, G. B., & Antonakis, J. (2026) · Journal of Organizational Behavior · doi:10.1002/job.70110
Pérez, E. O., Tropp, L. R., Huo, Y. J., Goldman, S. K., & Nteta, T. M. (2026) · Group Processes & Intergroup Relations · doi:10.1177/13684302261462033
Buades‐Rotger, M., Hendricks, R. C., Roncarati, B., Calderón-García, M., Bergmann, K., & Pérez-Cano, F. J. (2026) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291726105315
Guirado-Moreno, J. L., Sanchez-Azanza, V. A., Valera-Pozo, M., Aguilar-Mediavilla, E. M., & Adrover‐Roig, D. (2026) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2026.107784
Zhu, X., Wang, T., Zhou, C., & Gao, M. (2026) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2026.1960956
Huzooree, G., Doargajudhur, M. S., de Ruiter, C., & Dutot, V. (2026) · The Leadership Quarterly · doi:10.1016/j.leaqua.2026.102011
Metadata
- Authors
- Thoemmes, F.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Thoemmes, Felix
- ORCID
- Thoemmes, Felix
- Venue
- Basic and Applied Social Psychology
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2015-07-04
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 226-234
- ISSN
- 0197-3533 (ISSN-L)
- 1532-4834
- OpenAlex
- W2155450807
- Cited by
- 208
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 23 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 16.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Basic and Applied Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- mediation model, model comparison, equivalence classes, indirect effects, Markov equivalence, causal inference, model selection
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review