The DOI matches its Crossref record; 107 of the 107 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change
Open accessAbstract
Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncertainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested.
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Cites
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Müller Schmied, H., Cáceres, D., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Herbert, C., Niemann, C., Peiris, T. A., Popat, E., Portmann, F. T., Reinecke, R., et al. (2021) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-14-1037-2021 · Cited by 517
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources
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Self-citationFarooq, M. S., Uzair, M., Raza, A., Habib, M., Xu, Y., Yousuf, M., Yang, S. H., & Ramzan Khan, M. (2022) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2022.927535 · Cited by 267
Zaherpour, J., Gosling, S. N., Mount, N., Schmied, H. M., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Haddeland, I., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac547 · Cited by 174
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Metadata
- Authors
- Krysanova, V., Donnelly, C., Gelfan, A., Gerten, D., Arheimer, B., Hattermann, F., & Kundzewicz, Z. W.
- Venue
- Hydrological Sciences Journal
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2018-03-22
- Volume
- 63
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 696-720
- ISSN
- 0262-6667 (ISSN-L)
- 2150-3435
- OpenAlex
- W2791001077
- Cited by
- 256
- References
- 107
- FWCI
- 9.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Krysanova, V., Donnelly, C., Gelfan, A., Gerten, D., Arheimer, B., Hattermann, F., & Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2018). How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change. Hydrological Sciences Journal. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1446214
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