Reducing Gang Violence Using Focused Deterrence: Evaluating the Cincinnati Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV)

Abstract

Research indicates that focused deterrence interventions are associated with violence reductions, although levels of success vary across sites. It is unknown if these strategies can produce sustained reductions over time, and if the variation in success is due to differences in program activities and dosages. This study provides a detailed description and evaluation of the Cincinnati Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV), a focused deterrence violence reduction strategy implemented in Cincinnati, Ohio. CIRV’s organizational structure and enhanced social services were designed to address sustainability issues that threaten to undermine long-term success. Results from our pooled time series regression models indicate that two violent outcomes—group/gang-member involved homicides and violent firearm incidents—declined significantly following implementation. These declines were observed in both 24- and 42-month post-intervention periods, but not in comparison outcomes. Additional analyses, however, reveal that provision of social services was not responsible for the significant and sustained decline.