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Cited by 112Forecasting Techniques and ApplicationsDiverse Aspects of Tourism ResearchGrey System Theory Applications

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The Methodological Progress of Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Review of Related Literature

Goh, Carey, Law, Rob·2011·Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing
DOI 10.1080/10548408.2011.562856
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Abstract

Research on modeling the estimation and forecasting of tourism demand has evolved with increasing sophistication and improved quality. In this study, 155 research papers published between 1995 and 2009 were identified and were classified into three main groups according to the methods and techniques adopted—an econometric-based approach, time series techniques, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. It appears that the more advanced methods such as cointegration, error correction model, time varying parameter model, and their combinations with systems of equations produce better results in terms of forecasting accuracy. We also discuss the implications and suggest future directions of tourism research techniques and methods.

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  • An industry's response to macroeconomic factors is nonlinear, showing greater sensitivity to negative economic shocks than to positive shocks.

    “An industry's response to these factors is nonlinear, in that they show greater sensitivity to negative economic shocks than to positive shocks (Goh and Law, 2011; Chi and Baek, 2013; Wadud, 2014; Chi, 2024).”

    From Passenger and Freight Demand under Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from South Korea and The United States (2026) · cites this paper as Goh and Law, 2011

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Metadata

Authors
Goh, C., & Law, R.
Affiliations
Hong Kong Polytechnic University (HK)
Corresponding author
Goh, Carey
ORCID
Law, Rob
Venue
Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2011-04-12
Volume
28
Issue
3
Pages
296-317
ISSN
  • 1054-8408 (ISSN-L)
  • 1540-7306
DOI
10.1080/10548408.2011.562856
OpenAlex
W1995420366
Cited by
112
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 1
FWCI
5.65
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing (publishedVersion)
  • PolyU Institutional Research Archive (Hong Kong Polytechnic University) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management › Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Grey System Theory Applications
Keywords
tourism demand forecasting, econometric forecasting models, time series forecasting, artificial intelligence forecasting, cointegration, error correction model, time-varying parameter models, systems of equations, forecast accuracy, methodological evolution

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