How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons

Maas, Matthijs M.

doi:10.1080/13523260.2019.1576464

Cited by 86Nuclear Issues and DefenseMilitary Strategy and TechnologyInternational Relations and Foreign Policy

How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons

Maas, Matthijs M.·2019·Contemporary Security Policy

DOI 10.1080/13523260.2019.1576464

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Abstract

Many observers anticipate “arms races” between states seeking to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) in diverse military applications, some of which raise concerns on ethical and legal grounds, or from the perspective of strategic stability or accident risk. How viable are arms control regimes for military AI? This article draws a parallel with the experience in controlling nuclear weapons, to examine the opportunities and pitfalls of efforts to prevent, channel, or contain the militarization of AI. It applies three analytical lenses to argue that (1) norm institutionalization can counter or slow proliferation; (2) organized “epistemic communities” of experts can effectively catalyze arms control; (3) many military AI applications will remain susceptible to “normal accidents,” such that assurances of “meaningful human control” are largely inadequate. I conclude that while there are key differences, understanding these lessons remains essential to those seeking to pursue or study the next chapter in global arms control.

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Highly complex systems, like SAI, are prone to Normal Accidents.
“Highly complex systems, like SAI would be, are prone to 'Normal Accidents' (Perrow, 1999; Maas, 2019).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Maas, 2019

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Authors: Maas, M. M.
Affiliations: University of Copenhagen (DK)
Corresponding author: Maas, Matthijs M.
ORCID: Maas, Matthijs M.
Venue: Contemporary Security Policy
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Published: 2019-02-06
Volume: 40
Issue: 3
Pages: 285-311
ISSN: 1352-3260 (ISSN-L)
1743-8764
DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2019.1576464
OpenAlex: W2911993872
Cited by: 86
References: 46
Citations by year: 2026: 10 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 1
FWCI: 35.95
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Contemporary Security Policy (publishedVersion)
Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Nuclear Issues and Defense
Physical Sciences › Engineering › Control and Systems Engineering › Military Strategy and Technology
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
Keywords: artificial intelligence in warfare, arms control, nuclear weapons, arms race, strategic stability, normal accidents, meaningful human control, epistemic communities

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How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons

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