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Cited by 90Political Conflict and GovernanceMigration and Exile StudiesHealth and Conflict Studies

The Threat of Violence and Forced Migration: Geographical Scope Trumps Intensity of Fighting

Melander, Erik, Öberg, Magnus·2007·Civil Wars
DOI 10.1080/13698240701207310
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Abstract

Civil war and other forms of generalized violence have been identified as the main determinants of forced migration. Yet, there are still large variations across armed conflicts that have not been accounted for. In this article we examine new measures of armed conflict that indicate the magnitude and scope of fighting. We find that the geographical scope of fighting and the extent to which urban centres are affected determine a significant portion of the variation in the expected number of forced migrants across conflicts. Contrary to our expectations, our results show that the intensity of the armed conflict is not significantly related to the number of forced migrants. These findings suggest that the threat perceived by potential forced migrants is more related to where the fighting is taking place, than to the overall intensity of the fighting.

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  • Armed conflict commonly causes widespread forced migration, especially conflicts that generate high casualty figures.

    “A common denominator of most conflicts, especially those that generate high casualty figures, is widespread forced migration (154-157).”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [155]

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Authors
Melander, E., & Öberg, M.
ORCID
Venue
Civil Wars
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2007-06
Volume
9
Issue
2
Pages
156-173
ISSN
  • 1369-8249 (ISSN-L)
  • 1743-968X
DOI
10.1080/13698240701207310
OpenAlex
W2051876014
Cited by
89
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 2
FWCI
2.25
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Civil Wars (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Exile Studies
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Health and Conflict Studies
Keywords
forced migration, armed conflict, civil war, conflict intensity, urban conflict, displacement, conflict measurement, forced migrants

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