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Time and cost contingency management using Monte Carlo simulation
Abstract
In the practice of project management, cost contingency is a widely used application to counteract adverse uncertainty and risk which result in cost increase. Cost contingency is an important component in the end to end life cycle of a project. Time should also hold an equal importance as cost. In this paper, the Monte Carlo simulation approach is recommended as part of a proposed methodology for both time and cost contingency management. Individual components are assigned a time and cost contingency budget in both days and dollars, which have some grade of uncertainty regarding their completion time and future costs.
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“However in project management, the P80 percentile is sometimes chosen as the most appropriate percentile to measure risk appetite (Kwon and Kang, 2019;Traynor and Mahmoodian, 2019;Lorance and Wendling, 2001).”
From Beyond probability-impact matrices in project risk management: A quantitative methodology for risk prioritisation (2024) · cites this paper as Traynor and Mahmoodian, 2019
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Acebes, F., González-Varona, J. M., López-Paredes, A., & Pajares, J. (2024) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-024-03180-5 · Cited by 74
Metadata
- Authors
- Traynor, B. A., & Mahmoodian, M.
- Affiliations
- RMIT University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Mahmoodian, Mojtaba
- ORCID
- Mahmoodian, Mojtaba
- Venue
- Australian Journal of Civil Engineering
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2019-01-02
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 11-18
- ISSN
- 1448-8353 (ISSN-L)
- 2204-2245
- OpenAlex
- W2943719636
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 5
- FWCI
- 3.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Australian Journal of Civil Engineering (publishedVersion)
- RMIT Research Repository (RMIT University Library) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Construction Project Management and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Capital Investment and Risk Analysis
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling
- Keywords
- cost contingency, project risk management, uncertainty, project scheduling, project cost estimation, Monte Carlo simulation
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