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CO 2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector
Open accessAbstract
In order to cover their CO2 emissions, power companies receive most of the required EU ETS allowances for free. In line with economic theory, these companies pass on the costs of these allowances in the price of electricity. This article analyses the implications of the EU ETS for the power sector, notably the impact of free allocation of CO2 emission allowances on the price of electricity and the profitability of power generation. As well as some theoretical reflections, the article presents empirical and model estimates of CO2 cost pass-through for Germany and The Netherlands, indicating that pass-through rates vary between 60 and 100% of CO2 costs, depending on the carbon intensity of the marginal production unit and various other market- or technology-specific factors. As a result, power companies realize substantial windfall profits, as indicated by the empirical and model estimates presented in the article.
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“Since electricity prices are determined by marginal costs of the marginal production technology, often coal or gas, the opportunity costs created by free allowances were also included in electricity prices and led to an increase in firms ' profits, a phenomenon that has been labeled ' windfall profits ' (Wietze et al., 2010; Sijm et al., 2006).”
From The joint impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon emissions and economic performance (2023) · cites this paper as Sijm et al., 2006
In the citing paper
“Full carbon cost pass-through is observed in liberalized electricity markets (41, 42) but negligible in highly regulated markets such as South Korea (43).”
From Carbon Leakage, Consumption, and Trade (2022) · cites this paper as [41]
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Research works printed but not linked: 12
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 401–500 of 527
Schmidt, P., & Werner, T. (2011) · doi:10.5167/uzh-57092 · Cited by 2
“Sijm et al. (2006) test empirically if price change in the permit prices are passed through on the end prices and find strong evidence for so called windfall profits for German and Dutch electricity producers and conclude that firms with market power can profit from regulation if the permits are…”
BackgroundAllocation Rules in the EU ETS: Impact on Electricity Prices and Economic Efficiency
Wang, P.-P., & Yang, R.-G. (2009) · 2009 International Conference on Management and Service Science · doi:10.1109/icmss.2009.5302557 · Cited by 2
“Our estimations for Germany’s power sector indicate that these windfall profits may be substantial, a conclusion that is substantiated by a Sijm et al. (2006:49) for the case of Netherlands’ power sector.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialThe Effects of the EU ETS on Pollution Abatement InvestmentsPreprint
Goerger, A. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3798397 · Cited by 3
Capacity remuneration mechanisms for electricity markets in transition
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Risk Aversion in Modeling of Cap-and-Trade Mechanism and Optimal Design of Emission Markets
Falbo, P., & Hinz, J. (2016) · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-23425-0_10 · Cited by 2
“An empirical analysis, see [12] confirms that the strategy of costpass-through is currently followed by the European energy producers.”
BackgroundEmissions Trading and Stock Returns: Evidence from the European Steel and Combustion Industries
Bruggeman, J., & Halit Gonenc, B. (2012) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-30601-3_7 · Cited by 2
Kim, H., & Stech, R. (2012) · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-4417-2_3 · Cited by 2
“Overall annual windfall profits in 2005–2006 were between €24 and 35 billion (Sijm et al. 2006).”
BackgroundImpact of Carbon Costs on Wholesale Electricity Market
Kim, W., Park, J., & Lee, J.-W. (2010) · The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers · doi:10.5370/kiee.2010.59.4.700 · Cited by 1
“발전회사가 탄소 비용을 정산가격에 얼마나 전가 (Pass-Through)시킬 수 있는지에 대한 척도(measure)로는 일반적으로 다음과 같이 가격민감도 기반의 식이 많이 사용 되고 있다[2].”
Nazifi, F. (2015) · Environmental Economics and Policy Studies · doi:10.1007/s10018-015-0111-8 · Cited by 1
“13 According to Sijm et al. (2012), this market structure refers primarily to the interaction among the number of firms (as an indicator of the level of market competitiveness or market concentration), the shape of the demand curve, and the shape of the supply curve.”
BackgroundInfluentialXing, C. (2026) · Discover Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s43621-026-02969-5 · Cited by 1
Carbon cost pass-through rate in power system: evidence from Italy under the EU ETS
Duttilo, P., & Lisi, F. (2026) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.03076 · Cited by 1
“To estimate the impact of carbon prices on Italian spot electricity prices, an OLS regression model is employed, following Chen et al. (2008); Sijm et al. (2006, 2008); Nazifi (2016); Nazifi et al. (2021); Ding (2022).”
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Research on power market mechanism under the background of carbon trading
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“Then ongoing industrial practices and scientific researches [1-12] are studied, to establish power market mechanism that facilitate carbon market effectiveness, including market offer price cap, carbon cost allocation, and demand-side management.”
BackgroundJordan, A., & Moore, B. (2020) · Durable by Design? · doi:10.1017/9781108779869.002 · Cited by 1
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Wehrle, S., & Schmidt, J. (2018) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1810.02109 · Cited by 1
“Sijm et al. (2006) analyse potential windfall profits that accrue to power companies in the wake of the introduction of the EU ETS.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialMaryniak, P., Trück, S., & Weron, R. (2016) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2889892 · Cited by 1
“…as pass-through rates of carbon on electricity prices have mainly been studied for the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), see, e.g., Sijm et al. (2006), Hirschhausen and Zachmann (2008), Bunn and Fezzi (2009), Daskalakis and Markellos (2009), Fell (2010), Nazifi and Milunovich…”
InfluentialEmission Market Design Based on Supply Function Equilibrium Model
Fu, S.-J. (2015) · doi:10.11648/j.ijeee.20160101.11 · Cited by 1
“Reference [8] applied NAP based on EU ETS framework to forecast emission price, and found that allowances supply abundance was the main reason why price decreased in the first pilot period of EU ETS.”
InfluentialAn empirical study on the interaction between EUA futures, coal, natural gas and electricity
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“Note that, in our analysis, we do not consider the windfall profits problem that has been extensively discussed and proved in literature (see Chen et al., 2008, Kara et al., 2008, Linares et al., 2008, Lise et al., 2010, Sijm et al., 2006).”
BackgroundMethodInternational Emissions Trading: A Survey of Phases of the European Union Emissions Trading SchemePreprint
Ibikunle, G., & Gregoriou, A. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1952769 · Cited by 2
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“Sijm et al. (2006). Even though the main short run effect – a fuel switch from coal to natural gas – has already been observed (Delarue et al.”
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“…profits associated with the allocation of free permits have been estimated at e 19 million per year between 2005 and 2007 for electricity producers (Sijm, Neuhoff and Chen 2006; Keppler and Cruciani 2010) and e 3.5 billion for the cement industry between 2005 and 2012 (Branger and Quirion 2015).”
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“An empirical analysis in [ 27 ] estimates difierent levels ranging from 60% to 100% that not only depend on whether ofi-peak- or onpeak-demand is considered but also varies by region.”
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“…effects in the power sector, Sijm et al. document that European power companies pass on the cost of the EU ETS through electricity prices, with empirical and https://doi.org/10.3390/en19184333 model-based CPT rates ranging from 60% to 100% of CO 2 costs in Germany and the Netherlands [25].”
InfluentialToan, P. N., Hieu, L. T. T., & Nguyen, N. V. T. (2026) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks14080187
“…prices, fuel prices, carbon costs, grid fees and regulation can all affect delivered power costs, while carbon-cost pass-through is neither automatic nor uniform (Sijm et al. 2006; Fell 2010; Keppler and Mansanet-Bataller 2010; Fabra and Reguant 2014; Hintermann 2016; Cludius et al. 2020).”
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“The one-year lag and negative sign are consistent with merit-order fuel switching, by which higher carbon prices raise the marginal cost of coal relative to gas and renewables [17,18].”
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“Low-carbon generators may benefit from the same increase in electricity prices without incurring corresponding direct allowance costs (Lise et al., 2010; Sijm et al., 2006).”
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“Previous research shows that increases in fuel and emissions costs are often passed on to consumers, driven by the inelastic demand for electricity and the low cost of adjusting prices (Sijm et al., 2006; Fabra & Reguant, 2014; Miller et al., 2017; Ganapati et al., 2020; Kim, 2022).”
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Sijm, J., Neuhoff, K., & Chen, Y.
- Affiliations
- Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (NL)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Venue
- Climate Policy
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2006-01
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 49-72
- ISSN
- 1469-3062 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-7457
- OpenAlex
- W2040126491
- Cited by
- 576
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 21 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 26 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 30
- FWCI
- 85.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- resolver.tno.nl
- Locations
- Climate Policy (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- TNO Repository (submittedVersion)
- Repository hosted by TU Delft Library (TU Delft) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Johns Hopkins University
- Changchun University of Science and Technology
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Renewable energy and sustainable power systems
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Power System Optimization
- Keywords
- EU Emissions Trading System, free allocation of emission allowances, windfall profits, electricity prices, carbon intensity, electric utilities, Germany, Netherlands
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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