The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity
Open accessAbstract
Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modeling, and global distributions of working populations to estimate the impact of 2 climate scenarios on future labor productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labor productivity, under the simple assumption of no specific adaptation. By the 2080s, the greatest absolute losses of population-based labor work capacity (in the range 11% to 27%) are seen under the A2 scenario in Southeast Asia, Andean and Central America, and the Caribbean. Increased occupational heat exposure due to climate change may significantly impact on labor productivity and costs unless preventive measures are implemented. Workers may need to work longer hours, or more workers may be required, to achieve the same output and there will be economic costs of lost production and/or occupational health interventions against heat exposures.
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The negative impacts of heat stress will likely increase due to climate change, particularly in countries in arid and tropical zones.
“The negative impacts of heat stress will likely increase due to climate change (Spector and Sheffield, 2014; Acharya et al., 2018), particularly in countries in arid and tropical zones (Kjellstrom et al., 2009; Andrews et al., 2018).”
From Assessment of Heat Stress Exposure among Construction Workers in the Hot Desert Climate of Saudi Arabia (2019) · cites this paper as Kjellstrom et al., 2009
The Results (page unavailable) project heat-related labour-productivity losses in several tropical regions, supporting the claim for those areas. The Introduction says heat strain can occur in arid climates, but the paper does not identify arid regions as particularly affected by future climate change; its tabulated projection for North Africa/Middle East is comparatively small. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredClimate change between 1975 and 2050 would reduce the available work hours in all regions.
“Results showed that climate change between 1975 (as the median year of the period for which climate data were used) and 2050 would reduce the available work hours in all regions.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
The Methods (page unavailable) use 1961–1990 as the baseline and 2040–2069 as the 2050s period, so the dates are reasonable midpoints. Table 3 (Figures and Tables; page unavailable) projects more work time lost in every region under an A2 sensitivity analysis that holds labour patterns constant. The claim omits that condition: Table 2, which allows labour patterns to change, projects gains or no additional loss in some regions. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe estimated reductions in available work hours at the population level varied between 0.2% for Australasia and 18.6% for Central America.
“The estimated reductions at the population level varied between 0.2% for Australasia and 18.6% for Central America.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
Table 3 (Figures and Tables; page unavailable) reports 0.2% for Australasia and 18.6% for Central Latin America under the A2 scenario in the 2050s. But these are not the full range of regional reductions in that column: Southern Latin America is 0.1%, and some regions show no loss or a gain. The sentence also omits the scenario and period. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredUsing the WBGT index and the international standard for safe work, Kjellstrom et al. made quantitative, worldwide estimates of the impacts of increasing workplace heat on global and regional populations as a result of climate change.
“Using the WBGT index and the international standard (34) for safe work, Kjellstrom et al. (42) made quantitative, worldwide estimates of the impacts of increasing workplace heat on global and regional populations as a result of climate change.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
Other highly affected regions were Southeast Asia (18.2%), West Africa (15.8%), Central Africa (15.4%), Oceania (15.2%), the Caribbean (11.7%), and South Asia (11.5%).
“Other highly affected regions were Southeast Asia (18.2%),West Africa (15.8%),Central Africa (15.4%),Oceania (15.2%), the Caribbean (11.7%), and South Asia (11.5%).”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
DARA projected a total global GDP loss of US$2.1 trillion (PPP $) for 2030.
“These results projected a total global GDP loss of US$2.1 trillion (PPP $) for 2030.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
The Discussion estimates potential GDP losses for a region under a 2080 scenario, while the Results and tables report regional labour-productivity projections. Searches for DARA, US$2.1 trillion, PPP and a 2030 global GDP-loss estimate found no passage addressing the attributed projection; the cited paper does not verify that figure. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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Venugopal, V., Shanmugam, R., Krishnamoorthy, M., Latha, P. K., Vishwanathan, V., Ganesan, N., Perumal, K., & Chinnadurai, J. (2016) · Global Health Action · doi:10.3402/gha.v9.31945 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Levi, M., Kjellstrom, T. E., & Baldasseroni, A. (2018) · La Medicina del Lavoro · doi:10.23749/mdl.v109i3.6851 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Self-citationHeat stress, labour productivity and adaptation in Europe—a regional and occupational analysis
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Weather-Related Construction Delays in a Changing Climate: A Systematic State-of-the-Art Review
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The Economic Impact of Climate Change
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Self-citationEnvironmental Health Threats to Latino Migrant Farmworkers
Castillo, F., Mora, A. M., Kayser, G. L., Vanos, J., Hyland, C., Yang, A. R., & Eskenazi, B. (2021) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-012420-105014 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Regional maps of occupational heat exposure: past, present, and potential future
Hyatt, O. M., Lemke, B., & Kjellstrom, T. E. (2010) · Global Health Action · doi:10.3402/gha.v3i0.5715 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Self-citationKey Economic Sectors and Services
Change, I. P. O. C. (2015) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415379.015 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Bröde, P., Fiala, D., Lemke, B., & Kjellstrom, T. E. (2017) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-017-1346-9 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Self-citationThe impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China
Huang, K., Zhao, H., Huang, J., Wang, J., & FINDLAY, C. C. (2020) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102376 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Impact of climate change and heat stress on workers’ health and productivity: A scoping review
Amoadu, M., Ansah, E. W., Sarfo, J. O., & Hormenu, T. (2023) · The Journal of Climate Change and Health · doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2023.100249 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Impacts of tropical deforestation on local temperature and human well-being perceptions
Wolff, N. H., Masuda, Y. J., Meijaard, E., Wells, J. A., & Game, E. T. (2018) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.07.004 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Mapping urban temperature using crowd-sensing data and machine learning
Zumwald, M., Knüsel, B., Bresch, D. N., & Knutti, R. (2020) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100739 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Climate Change Challenges to Existing Cultural Heritage Policy
Dastgerdi, A. S., Sargolini, M., & Pierantoni, I. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11195227 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Work adaptations insufficient to address growing heat risk for U.S. agricultural workers
Tigchelaar, M., Battisti, D. S., & Spector, J. T. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab86f4 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Gamble, J., Balbus, J., Berger, M., Bouye, K., Campbell, V., Chief, K., Conlon, K., Crimmins, A., Flanagan, B., Gonzalez-Maddux, C., et al. (2016) · doi:10.7930/j0q81b0t · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Xiang, J., Hansen, A. L., Pisaniello, D., & Bi, P. (2016) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3241-4 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
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Risk Factors for Heat-Related Illness in Washington Crop Workers
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Economic Losses of Heat-Induced Reductions in Outdoor Worker Productivity: a Case Study of Europe
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Assessment of the economic impact of heat-related labor productivity loss: a systematic review
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Self-citationEscalating environmental summer heat exposure—a future threat for the European workforce
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Self-citationProjections of heat stress and associated work performance over India in response to global warming
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Climate change and knowledge spillovers for cleaner production: New insights
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Perceived heat stress increases with population density in urban Philippines
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Air quality co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health in South Korea.
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Estimation of Climate Change Damage Functions for 140 Regions in the GTAP 9 Database
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Self-citationBeyond Threshold Approaches to Extreme Heat: Repositioning Adaptation as Everyday Practice
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Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions
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Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century
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Heat Stress Changes over East Asia under 1.5° and 2.0°C Global Warming Targets
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- Authors
- Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, R. S., Lloyd, S. J., Holt, T., & Tol, R. S. J.
- Affiliations
- Australian National University (AU)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Economic and Social Research Institute (IE)
- Venue
- Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2009-11-30
- Volume
- 64
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 217-227
- ISSN
- 1933-8244 (ISSN-L)
- 2154-4700
- OpenAlex
- W2155947694
- Semantic Scholar
- c74a824fa1498d43cda461ea45aaa9a7af048791
- Cited by
- 448
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 28 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 8.29
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Locations
- Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Social Sciences › Health › Occupational Health and Global Justice
- Keywords
- climate change, labor productivity, heat exposure, occupational heat stress, work capacity, climate change scenarios, A2 scenario, heat adaptation, occupational health interventions
- MeSH terms
- Efficiency, Humans, Models, Biological, Global Health, Workload, Climate Change
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