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The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity
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Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modeling, and global distributions of working populations to estimate the impact of 2 climate scenarios on future labor productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labor productivity, under the simple assumption of no specific adaptation. By the 2080s, the greatest absolute losses of population-based labor work capacity (in the range 11% to 27%) are seen under the A2 scenario in Southeast Asia, Andean and Central America, and the Caribbean. Increased occupational heat exposure due to climate change may significantly impact on labor productivity and costs unless preventive measures are implemented. Workers may need to work longer hours, or more workers may be required, to achieve the same output and there will be economic costs of lost production and/or occupational health interventions against heat exposures.
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“The negative impacts of heat stress will likely increase due to climate change (Spector and Sheffield, 2014; Acharya et al., 2018), particularly in countries in arid and tropical zones (Kjellstrom et al., 2009; Andrews et al., 2018).”
From Assessment of Heat Stress Exposure among Construction Workers in the Hot Desert Climate of Saudi Arabia (2019) · cites this paper as Kjellstrom et al., 2009
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“Results showed that climate change between 1975 (as the median year of the period for which climate data were used) and 2050 would reduce the available work hours in all regions.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
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“The estimated reductions at the population level varied between 0.2% for Australasia and 18.6% for Central America.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
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“Using the WBGT index and the international standard (34) for safe work, Kjellstrom et al. (42) made quantitative, worldwide estimates of the impacts of increasing workplace heat on global and regional populations as a result of climate change.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
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“Other highly affected regions were Southeast Asia (18.2%),West Africa (15.8%),Central Africa (15.4%),Oceania (15.2%), the Caribbean (11.7%), and South Asia (11.5%).”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
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“These results projected a total global GDP loss of US$2.1 trillion (PPP $) for 2030.”
From Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts (2016) · cites this paper as [42]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, R. S., Lloyd, S. J., Holt, T., & Tol, R. S. J.
- Affiliations
- Australian National University (AU)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Economic and Social Research Institute (IE)
- Venue
- Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2009-11-30
- Volume
- 64
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 217-227
- ISSN
- 1933-8244 (ISSN-L)
- 2154-4700
- OpenAlex
- W2155947694
- Semantic Scholar
- c74a824fa1498d43cda461ea45aaa9a7af048791
- Cited by
- 448
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 28 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 8.29
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Locations
- Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Social Sciences › Health › Occupational Health and Global Justice
- Keywords
- climate change, labor productivity, heat exposure, occupational heat stress, work capacity, climate change scenarios, A2 scenario, heat adaptation, occupational health interventions
- MeSH terms
- Efficiency, Humans, Models, Biological, Global Health, Workload, Climate Change
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