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Automation and the future of the welfare state: basic income as a response to technological change?
Open accessAbstract
Technology entrepreneurs have endorsed a universal basic income (UBI) as a remedy against disruptions of the work force due to automation. The advancement of information technologies could thus drastically reshape welfare state policy, but its impact on citizens’ preferences about UBI is unexplored. We extend previous research on citizens’ preferences showing a link between job automation and demand for redistribution to the case of UBI preferences. Using European Social Survey data in 21 countries, we find no association between risk of job automation and UBI support. Our findings suggest that UBI and redistribution preferences differ in two important ways: First, opinion formation about UBI is still ongoing. Second, demand for UBI is lower than demand for redistribution, and traditional supporters of redistribution are sceptical about an UBI. This points to the multidimensionality of policy preferences. Its universalistic nature could imply that UBI support is more culturally driven than traditional welfare policies.
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“As such, UBI supporters are often young and higher educated, i.e., groups that are drawn to support UBI due to its universalistic nature (Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020).”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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In the citing paper
“In line with existing research (Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020;Vlandas, 2021), the analysis has shown that variables like income, unemployment, and working-class status are systematically associated with support for both UBI and welfare policies.”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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“Characteristics that capture individuals' material self-interest like income or unemployment status are associated with UBI preferences in a very similar way than preferences for redistribution (Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020).”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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“However, earlier research has not found strong links between automation-another disruption against which UBI might in principle provide a remedy-and political support for UBI.”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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“Although two studies from Italy find a link between objective automation risk and support for UBI (Guarascio & Sacchi, 2021;Sacchi et al., 2020), this has not been confirmed in comparative studies of UBI support (Busemeyer & Sahm, 2021;Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020).”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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“The link between UBI and social investment attitudes has also been made in prior research (Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020;Roosma & van Oorschot., 2020;Schwander & Vlandas, 2020).”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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“The trade union effect is either not significant (Parolin & Siöland., 2020;Vlandas, 2021) or much weaker than for redistribution preferences (Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020), which further indicates that opinions on UBI are divided among those on the left of the political spectrum.”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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“It is hardly surprising, therefore, that a considerable share of the population still expresses undecided opinions about UBI (Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020).”
From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020
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Citations
Cites
The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration
Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355303322552801 · Cited by 6,205
Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring
Goos, M., Manning, A., & Salomons, A. (2014) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.104.8.2509 · Cited by 2,111
The political economy of individual-level support for the basic income in Europe
Vlandas, T. (2021) · Journal of European Social Policy · doi:10.1177/0958928720923596 · Cited by 85
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income
Weisstanner, D. (2022) · Policy and Society · doi:10.1093/polsoc/puab015 · Cited by 40
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Dermont, C., & Weisstanner, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Zurich (CH)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Weisstanner, David
- Venue
- Political Research Exchange
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2020-01-01
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1757387
- ISSN
- 2474-736X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3021272969
- Cited by
- 97
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 32.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Political Research Exchange (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Social Policy and Reform Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Philosophy and Ethics
- Keywords
- universal basic income, workplace automation, welfare state, redistribution preferences, public opinion, technological change, information technology, opinion formation
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