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Cited by 85Social Policy and Reform StudiesElectoral Systems and Political ParticipationLabor market dynamics and wage inequality

The political economy of individual-level support for the basic income in Europe

Open access
Vlandas, Tim·2021·Journal of European Social Policy
DOI 10.1177/0958928720923596
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Abstract

There is a long-standing debate in academic and policymaking circles about the normative merits and economic effects of a universal basic income (UBI). However, existing literature does not sufficiently address the question of which factors are associated with individual support for a UBI. While a large literature in political economy has focused on individual preferences for existing welfare state benefits, it has not analysed the case of a UBI. Using the eighth wave of the European Social Survey (ESS), this article seeks to remedy this gap by analysing individual support for a UBI in 21 European countries. The findings from logistic regression analyses with country fixed effects are partly consistent with the expectations of previous social policy and political economy literatures. Younger, low-income, left-leaning individuals and the unemployed are more likely to support a UBI. Individuals with positive views of benefit recipients and/or high trust in political institutions are also more supportive, while anti-immigration attitudes are associated with lower support. By contrast, the patterns across occupations are mixed and male respondents appear slightly more supportive. Trade union membership is not statistically significant, perhaps because of contradictory effects: unions typically support new welfare state policies but they also have a key role in many existing welfare state schemes and may worry about individuals’ attachment to the labour market. At the cross-national level, support tends to be higher where benefit activation is more pronounced and unemployment benefits less generous. These results suggest one possible reason why countries with high support for a UBI have not introduced it: the mixed support among the left means a pro-UBI coalition has to draw on right-wing voters who may support it only with lower taxes and/or extensive replacement of welfare state benefits, which in turn may further alienate parts of the left.

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  • Individuals whose material position is worse off tend to be supportive of both UBI and welfare policies generally.

    “Individuals whose material position is worse off tend to be supportive of both UBI and welfare policies generally (Vlandas, 2021).”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Vlandas, 2021

  • Material considerations are an important determinant for both UBI support and support for other welfare programs.

    “On the one hand, it is likely that material considerations are an important determinant for both UBI support and support for other welfare programs.”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Vlandas, 2021

  • After decades of cutbacks and a turn toward activation, UBI might be seen as especially attractive among labor market outsiders.

    “After decades of cutbacks and a turn toward activation, UBI might be seen as especially attractive among labor market outsiders (Vlandas, 2021).”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Vlandas, 2021

  • The trade union effect is either not significant or much weaker than for redistribution preferences, which further indicates that opinions on UBI are divided among those on the left of the political spectrum.

    “The trade union effect is either not significant (Parolin & Siöland., 2020;Vlandas, 2021) or much weaker than for redistribution preferences (Dermont & Weisstanner, 2020), which further indicates that opinions on UBI are divided among those on the left of the political spectrum.”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Vlandas, 2021

  • A shift to UBI could lead to severe cutbacks in the benefit generosity that some groups would receive.

    “In this case, a shift to UBI could actually lead to severe cutbacks in the benefit generosity that some groups would receive (Vlandas, 2021).”

    From COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income (2022) · cites this paper as Vlandas, 2021

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Authors
Vlandas, T.
Affiliations
University of Oxford (GB)
Corresponding author
Vlandas, Tim
ORCID
Vlandas, Tim
Venue
Journal of European Social Policy
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2020-08-27
Volume
31
Issue
1
Pages
62-77
ISSN
  • 0958-9287 (ISSN-L)
  • 1461-7269
DOI
10.1177/0958928720923596
OpenAlex
W3015310819
Cited by
85
References
82
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 3
FWCI
36.25
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
Journal of European Social Policy (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Social Policy and Reform Studies
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
Keywords
universal basic income, political economy of welfare, individual preferences, anti-immigrant sentiment, trust in political institutions, union membership, left-right political attitudes, age and income effects, gender differences, occupation, European Social Survey

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