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Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?
Open accessAbstract
Recent work by David Lilien has argued that the positive correlation between the dispersion of employment growth rates across sectors (σ) and the unemployment rate implies that sectoral shifts in labor demand are responsible for a substantial fraction of cyclical variation in unemployment. This paper demonstrates that, under empirically satisfied conditions, traditional single-factor business-cycle models will produce a positive correlation between σ and the unemployment rate. Information on the job vacancy rate permits one to distinguish between a pure sectoral shift and a pure aggregate demand interpretation of this positive correlation. The finding that σ and the volume of help wanted advertising (a job vacancy proxy) are negatively related supports an aggregate demand interpretation.
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Citations
Cites
Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?
Neftçi, S. N. (1984) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261226 · Cited by 929
Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States
Barro, R. J. (1976) · American Economic Review · Cited by 841
Cited by
The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies
Shimer, R. (2005) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/0002828053828572 · Cited by 2,731
Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function
Petrongolo, B., & Pissarides, C. A. (2001) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.39.2.390 · Cited by 2,384
Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness
Hall, R. E. (2005) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/0002828053828482 · Cited by 1,439
Really Uncertain Business Cycles
Bloom, N., Floetotto, M., Jaimovich, N., Saporta-Eksten, I., & Terry, S. J. (2018) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta10927 · Cited by 1,120
The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited
Hagedorn, M., & Manovskii, I. (2008) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.98.4.1692 · Cited by 1,046
Metadata
- Authors
- Abraham, K. G., & Katz, L. F.
- Venue
- Journal of Political Economy
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 1986-06
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 3, Part 1
- Pages
- 507-522
- ISSN
- 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-534X
- OpenAlex
- W2009477546
- Cited by
- 536
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 36.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Abraham, K. G., & Katz, L. F. (1986). Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances? Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/261387
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
