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The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908
Open accessAbstract
Traditional estimates of prewar GNP exaggerate the size of cycles because they are based on the assumption that GNP moves approximately one for one with commodity output valued in producer prices. This paper derives new estimates of GNP for 1869-1908 using an estimate of the actual relationship between GNP and commodity output. This estimated relationship is allowed to be time-varying and is derived from a regression covering the periods 1909-28 and 1947-85. The new estimates of GNP indicate that there has been much less stabilization between the prewar and postwar eras than is conventionally believed.
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Citations
Cited by
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Perron, P., & Yabu, T. (2009) · Journal of Business & Economic Statistics · doi:10.1198/jbes.2009.07268 · Cited by 271
Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends
Perron, P., & Zhu, X. (2005) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.09.004 · Cited by 225
Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Lessons from Past Productivity Booms
Ferguson, R. W., & Wascher, W. L. (2004) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/0895330041371286 · Cited by 30
Metadata
- Authors
- Romer, C. D.
- Venue
- Journal of Political Economy
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 1989-02
- Volume
- 97
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-37
- ISSN
- 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-534X
- OpenAlex
- W2889607641
- Cited by
- 279
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 40.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Romer, C. D. (1989). The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908. Journal of Political Economy. https://doi.org/10.1086/261592
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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