The DOI matches its Crossref record; 23 of the 23 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Slightly More Realistic Personal Probability
Abstract
A person required to risk money on a remote digit of π would, in order to comply fully with the theory [of personal probability] have to compute that digit, though this would really be wasteful if the cost of computation were more than the prize involved. For the postulates of the theory imply that you should behave in accordance with the logical implications of all that you know. Is it possible to improve the theory in this respect, making allowance within it for the cost of thinking, or would that entail paradox?
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
(2001) · Empirical Direction in Design and Analysis · doi:10.4324/9781410600004-24 · Cited by 6,808
From a Logical Point of View: Nine Logico-Philosophical Essays, Second Revised Edition
Van Orman Quine, W. (1980) · Harvard University Press eBooks · doi:10.2307/j.ctv1c5cx5c · Cited by 2,439
Logical Foundations of Probability
Savage, L. J., & Carnap, R. (1952) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1907654 · Cited by 2,033
Hintikka, J. (1962) · Cited by 1,536
WHAT THE TORTOISE SAID TO ACHILLES
CARROLL, L. (1895) · Mind · doi:10.1093/mind/iv.14.278 · Cited by 1,417
Ramsey, F. P. (2016) · Readings in Formal Epistemology · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-20451-2_3 · Cited by 1,301
Jeffrey, R. C. (1965) · Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) · Cited by 1,272
Carnap, R. (1947) · Cited by 1,218
Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources
de Finetti, B. (1992) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-0919-5_10 · Cited by 781
What Is Mathematics?: An Elementary Approach To Ideas And Methods
Courant, R., & Robbins, H. (1996) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195105193.001.0001 · Cited by 777
Cited by
Fraassen, B. C. V. (1989) · doi:10.1093/0198248601.001.0001 · Cited by 1,821
Policy Learning, Policy Diffusion, and the Making of a New Order
Meseguer, C. (2005) · The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science · doi:10.1177/0002716204272372 · Cited by 386
Consequentialist foundations for expected utility
Hammond, P. J. (1988) · Theory and Decision · doi:10.1007/bf00129168 · Cited by 368
Russell, S., & Wefald, E. (1991) · Artificial Intelligence · doi:10.1016/0004-3702(91)90015-c · Cited by 358
Program verification: the very idea
Fetzer, J. H. (1988) · Communications of the ACM · doi:10.1145/48529.48530 · Cited by 293
Metadata
- Authors
- Hacking, I.
- Venue
- Philosophy of Science
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 1967-12
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 311-325
- ISSN
- 0031-8248 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-767X
- OpenAlex
- W1992295614
- Cited by
- 354
- References
- 23
- FWCI
- 2.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Slightly More Realistic Personal Probability. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1086/288169
- The paper
- Hacking, I. (1967). Slightly More Realistic Personal Probability. Philosophy of Science. https://doi.org/10.1086/288169
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
