Imprisonment and Reoffending
Abstract
Imprisonment is the most severe punishment in democratic societies except for capital punishment, which is used only in the United States. Crime prevention is its primary rationale. Imprisonment may affect reoffending in various ways. It may be reduced by some combination of rehabilitation and what criminologists call specific deterrence. Sound arguments can be made, however, for a criminogenic effect (e.g., due to antisocial prison experiences or to stigma endured upon release). Remarkably little is known about the effects of imprisonment on reoffending. The existing research is limited in size, in quality, in its insights into why a prison term might be criminogenic or preventative, and in its capacity to explain why imprisonment might have differential effects depending on offenders’ personal and social characteristics. Compared with noncustodial sanctions, incarceration appears to have a null or mildly criminogenic effect on future criminal behavior. This conclusion is not sufficiently firm to guide policy generally, though it casts doubt on claims that imprisonment has strong specific deterrent effects. The evidence does provide a basis for outlining components of an agenda for substantive and policy relevant research.
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Evidence on the causal effects of incarceration is scarce.
“Due to these challenges, evidence on the causal effects of incarceration is scarce.”
From Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment (2020) · cites this paper as Nagin et al. (2009)
Study findings have repeatedly shown that when low-risk offenders are brought into the justice system, the outcome is almost exclusively iatrogenic.
“Study findings have repeatedly shown that when low‐risk offenders are brought into the justice system, the outcome is almost exclusively iatrogenic (e.g., Gatti, Tremblay, & Vitaro, 2009; Lowenkamp, Latessa, & Holsinger, 2006; Nagin, Cullen, & Jonson, 2009; Sperber, Latessa, & Makarios, 2013).”
From Does contact with the justice system deter or promote future delinquency? Results from a longitudinal study of British adolescent twins (2020) · cites this paper as Nagin, Cullen, & Jonson, 2009
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Prisons Do Not Reduce Recidivism: The High Cost of Ignoring Science
Cullen, F. T., Jonson, C. L., & Nagin, D. S. (2011) · The Prison Journal · doi:10.1177/0032885511415224 · Cited by 407 · see citing works
Self-citationIncarceration, Recidivism, and Employment
Bhuller, M., Dahl, G. B., Løken, K. V., & Mogstad, M. (2020) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/705330 · Cited by 335 · see citing works
“Nagin et al. (2009), in their review article, summarize the state of the literature well: “Remarkably little is known about the effects of imprisonment on reoffending. The existing research is limited in size, in quality, [and] in its insights into why a prison term might be criminogenic or preventative.” Our paper ov…”
BackgroundSanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence
Apel, R. (2013) · Journal of Quantitative Criminology · doi:10.1007/s10940-012-9170-1 · Cited by 308 · see citing works
Elaborating the Individual Difference Component in Deterrence Theory
Piquero, A. R., Paternoster, R., Pogarsky, G., & Loughran, T. (2011) · Annual Review of Law and Social Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-102510-105404 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
DOES IMPRISONMENT ALTER THE LIFE COURSE? EVIDENCE ON CRIME AND EMPLOYMENT FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT
LOEFFLER, C. E. (2013) · Criminology · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12000 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Motz, R. T., Barnes, J. C., Caspi, A., Arseneault, L., Cullen, F. T., Houts, R., Wertz, J., & Moffitt, T. E. (2020) · Criminology · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12236 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Self-citationBarnes, J. C., Liu, H., Motz, R. T., Tanksley, P. T., Kail, R., Beckley, A. L., Belsky, D. W., Domingue, B. W., Moffitt, T. E., Pratt, T. C., et al. (2019) · Aggression and Violent Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.avb.2019.07.002 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Juvenile Transfer and the Specific Deterrence Hypothesis: Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis
Zane, S. N., Welsh, B. C., & Mears, D. P. (2016) · Criminology & Public Policy · doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12222 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Bursky, M., Kosuri, M., Walsh Carson, K., Babad, S., Iskhakova, A., & Nikulina, V. (2023) · Psychological Reports · doi:10.1177/00332941211048734 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
- Authors
- Nagin, D. S., Cullen, F. T., & Jonson, C. L.
- Venue
- Crime and Justice
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2009-01
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 115-200
- ISSN
- 0192-3234 (ISSN-L)
- 2153-0416
- OpenAlex
- W1966208182
- Cited by
- 640
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 81 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 42 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 32
- FWCI
- 79.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Crime and Justice (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- incarceration, recidivism, specific deterrence, criminogenic effects, rehabilitation, stigma, criminal policy, offender characteristics
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