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What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?
Abstract
A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters. We document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information. The dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities. The conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities.
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Citations
Cited by
Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A. (2016) · NBER Macroeconomics Annual · doi:10.1086/685965 · Cited by 332
Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment
Armona, L., Fuster, A., & Zafar, B. (2019) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdy038 · Cited by 319
Narratives About the Macroeconomy
Andre, P., Haaland, I., Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4506321 · Cited by 100
Narratives about the Macroeconomy
Andre, P., Haaland, I., Roth, C., Wiederholt, M., & Wohlfart, J. (2026) · Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdag014 · Cited by 12
Metadata
- Authors
- Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y.
- Venue
- Journal of Political Economy
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2012-02
- Volume
- 120
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 116-159
- ISSN
- 0022-3808 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-534X
- OpenAlex
- W3122065104
- Cited by
- 844
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 44.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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