The DOI matches its Crossref record; 53 of the 53 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Expectations and Investment
Abstract
Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs’ expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin’s Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past earnings and other data, pointing to extrapolative structure of expectations and suggesting that expectations may not be rational. This evidence, like earlier findings in finance, points to the usefulness of data on actual expectations for understanding economic behavior.
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Cites
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Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models
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Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H., & Waldmann, R. J. (1990) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261703 · Cited by 6,234
Self-citationThe Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
(2009) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta6248 · Cited by 5,834
Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements
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Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment
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By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior
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Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
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Implications of rational inattention
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Cited by
Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment
Armona, L., Fuster, A., & Zafar, B. (2019) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdy038 · Cited by 319
A New Test of Risk Factor Relevance
CHINCO, A., HARTZMARK, S. M., & SUSSMAN, A. B. (2022) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.13135 · Cited by 75
Metadata
- Authors
- Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A.
- Venue
- NBER Macroeconomics Annual
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2016-01
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 379-431
- ISSN
- 0889-3365 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-2642
- OpenAlex
- W1746056975
- Cited by
- 332
- References
- 53
- FWCI
- 76.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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