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Probable networks and plausible predictions — a review of practical Bayesian methods for supervised neural networks
Abstract
Bayesian probability theory provides a unifying framework for data modelling. In this framework the overall aims are to find models that are well-matched to the data, and to use these models to make optimal predictions. Neural network learning is interpreted as an inference of the most probable parameters for the model, given the training data. The search in model space (i.e., the space of architectures, noise models, preprocessings, regularizers and weight decay constants) can then also be treated as an inference problem, in which we infer the relative probability of alternative models, given the data. This review describes practical techniques based on Gaussian approximations for implementation of these powerful methods for controlling, comparing and using adaptive networks.
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“This reflects the fact that this form of model selection implements automatic relevance determination (MacKay 1995), by virtue of optimising the model evidence with respect to model hyperparameters; in this instance, the shrinkage priors prescribed by an adjacency matrix.”
From Network discovery with DCM (2011) · cites this paper as MacKay 1995
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Metadata
- Authors
- Mackay, D. J. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Mackay, David J C
- ORCID
- Mackay, David J C
- Venue
- Network Computation in Neural Systems
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 1995-01
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 469-505
- ISSN
- 0954-898X (ISSN-L)
- 1361-6536
- OpenAlex
- W2139701068
- Cited by
- 915
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 33 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 39 · 2020: 58 · 2019: 40 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 36 · 2014: 24 · 2013: 29 · 2012: 39
- FWCI
- 13.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Network Computation in Neural Systems (publishedVersion)
- Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Neural Networks and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Keywords
- Bayesian neural networks, supervised learning, Gaussian approximation, model selection, model space search, parameter inference, adaptive networks, noise models, regularization, weight decay
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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