The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Teleconnected food supply shocks
Open accessAbstract
The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.
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Cites
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BackgroundFood consumption trends and drivers
Kearney, J. (2010) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0149 · Cited by 1,987
Beneficial biofuels—the food, energy, and environment trilemma
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Cited by
Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands
Bren d’Amour, C., Reitsma, F., Baiocchi, G., Barthel, S., Güneralp, B., Erb, K.-H., Haberl, H., Creutzig, F., & Seto, K. C. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1606036114 · Cited by 1,378
Self-citationSocial and economic impacts of climate
Carleton, T. A., & Hsiang, S. M. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad9837 · Cited by 1,348
National food production stabilized by crop diversity
Renard, D., & Tilman, D. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1316-y · Cited by 623
Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks
Tigchelaar, M., Battisti, D. S., Naylor, R. L., & Ray, D. K. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1718031115 · Cited by 527
Assessing human and environmental pressures of global land-use change 2000–2010
Creutzig, F., Bren d'Amour, C., Weddige, U., Fuss, S., Beringer, T., Gläser, A., Kalkuhl, M., Steckel, J. C., Radebach, A., & Edenhofer, O. (2019) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2018.15 · Cited by 96
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Metadata
- Authors
- Bren d’Amour, C., Wenz, L., Kalkuhl, M., Christoph Steckel, J., & Creutzig, F.
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2016-02-29
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 035007
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2298664111
- Cited by
- 206
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 20.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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