The DOI matches its Crossref record; 43 of the 43 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Climate-induced shocks in grain production are a major contributor to global market volatility, which creates uncertainty for cereal farmers and agribusiness and reduces food access for poor consumers when production falls and prices spike. Our study, by combining empirical models of maize production with future warming scenarios, shows that in a warmer climate, maize yields will decrease and become more variable. Because just a few countries dominate global maize production and trade, simultaneous production shocks in these countries can have tremendous impacts on global markets. We show that such synchronous shocks are rare now but will become much more likely if the climate continues to warm. Our results underscore the need for continued investments in breeding for heat tolerance.
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Cites
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Self-citationNonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
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Self-citationTemperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
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Climate change has likely already affected global food production
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Self-citationUnderstanding and managing connected extreme events
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Bowles, T. M., Mooshammer, M., Socolar, Y., Calderón, F., Cavigelli, M. A., Culman, S. W., Deen, W., Drury, C. F., Garcia y Garcia, A., Gaudin, A. C. M., et al. (2020) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.02.007 · Cited by 526
Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability
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A cis-regulatory atlas in maize at single-cell resolution
Marand, A. P., Chen, Z., Gallavotti, A., & Schmitz, R. J. (2021) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2021.04.014 · Cited by 373
Metadata
- Authors
- Tigchelaar, M., Battisti, D. S., Naylor, R. L., & Ray, D. K.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-06-11
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 26
- Pages
- 6644-6649
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2808279205
- Cited by
- 527
- References
- 43
- FWCI
- 38.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Tigchelaar, M., Battisti, D. S., Naylor, R. L., & Ray, D. K. (2018). Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718031115
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