Student or educator? Sign up with your school email and get 6 months of Pro free.
CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 481

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 34 of the 34 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

Open access
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, van der Wiel, Karin, Sebastian, Antonia, Singh, Roop, Arrighi, Julie, Otto, Friederike, Haustein, Karsten, Li, Sihan, Vecchi, Gabriel, Cullen, Heidi·2017·Environmental Research Letters
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy −1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy −1 ) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%–19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5–5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston's flood protection system.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2

Cites

34 of 34 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

Show all 34 references

Research works printed but not linked: 5

  1. 10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8 · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8
  2. Clapeyron E, 1834, Journal de l’Ecole Royale Polytechnique, XIV, 153
  3. Eden J M, 2016, Environ. Res. Lett., 11
  4. Hoerling M P, 2013, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, S15
  5. 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.09.004 · doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.09.004

Cited by

See all 481

Metadata

Authors
van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G., & Cullen, H.
Venue
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Published
2017-12-01
Volume
12
Issue
12
Pages
124009
ISSN
1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2
OpenAlex
W2772720378
Cited by
481
References
34
FWCI
32.50
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2018-01-09)
Open access
gold
Licence
Funders
MacArthur Foundation

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

How to cite

Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.

This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2
The paper
van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G., & Cullen, H. (2017). Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.