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Cited by 480Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones ResearchClimate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events

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Patricola-DiRosario, Christina M., Wehner, Michael F.·2018·Nature
DOI 10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2
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Abstract

There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations. In addition, projections of future tropical cyclone activity are uncertain, because they often rely on coarse-resolution climate models that parameterize convection and hence have difficulty in directly representing tropical cyclones. Here we used convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate whether and how recent destructive tropical cyclones would change if these events had occurred in pre-industrial and in future climates. We found that, relative to pre-industrial conditions, climate change so far has enhanced the average and extreme rainfall of hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria, but did not change tropical cyclone wind-speed intensity. In addition, future anthropogenic warming would robustly increase the wind speed and rainfall of 11 of 13 intense tropical cyclones (of 15 events sampled globally). Additional regional climate model simulations suggest that convective parameterization introduces minimal uncertainty into the sign of projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall, which allows us to have confidence in projections from global models with parameterized convection and resolution fine enough to include tropical cyclones.

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  • The overall frequency of tropical cyclones may not change, or may even decrease with continued climate change.

    “The overall frequency of tropical cyclones may not change, or may even decrease with continued climate change, but high intensity cyclones are expected to increase in number and intensity as well as the amount and intensity of rainfall (87,88).”

    From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [88]

  • High intensity tropical cyclones are expected to increase in number and intensity, as well as the amount and intensity of rainfall, with continued climate change.

    “The overall frequency of tropical cyclones may not change, or may even decrease with continued climate change, but high intensity cyclones are expected to increase in number and intensity as well as the amount and intensity of rainfall (87,88).”

    From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [88]

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Cited by

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Authors
Patricola-DiRosario, C. M., & Wehner, M. F.
Affiliations
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
ORCID
Wehner, Michael F.
Venue
Nature
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2018-11-14
Volume
563
Issue
7731
Pages
339-346
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
DOI
10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2
OpenAlex
W2899712726
Cited by
480
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 36 · 2025: 63 · 2024: 65 · 2023: 71 · 2022: 65 · 2021: 85 · 2020: 66 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 2
FWCI
21.88
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2026-01-20)
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy (-AC02-05CH11231, 05CH11231, DE AC02 05CH11231, DE-AC02-)
  • National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (DE–AC02–05CH11231, 05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231)
  • Office of Science (DEAC02–05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02)
  • Biological and Environmental Research (05CH11231, DE-AC02 − 05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords
tropical cyclones, climate change impacts, anthropogenic warming, hurricane rainfall, tropical cyclone wind speed, convection-permitting regional climate models, convection parameterization, extreme rainfall, Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Maria, climate change projections
MeSH terms
Computer Simulation, Human Activities, Probability, Rain, Tropical Climate, Wind, Uncertainty, Cyclonic Storms, Global Warming

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