The DOI matches its Crossref record; 45 of the 45 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition
Open accessAbstract
While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade in forest-risk commodities on the rise, it is becoming increasingly important to consider between-country trade linkages in assessing the drivers of—and possible connections between—forest loss and gain across countries. Previous studies have shown that countries that have undergone a forest transition (and are now increasing their forest cover) tend to displace land use outside their borders. However, lack of comprehensive data on deforestation drivers imply that it has not been possible to ascertain whether this has accelerated forest loss in sourcing countries. To remedy this, we present a land-balance model that quantifies deforestation embodied in production of agricultural and forestry commodities at country level across the tropics and subtropics, subsequently tracing embodied deforestation to countries of apparent consumption using a physical, country-to-country trade model. We find that in the period 2005–2013, 62% (5.5 Mha yr −1 ) of forest loss could be attributed to expanding commercial cropland, pastures and tree plantations. The commodity groups most commonly associated with deforestation were cattle meat, forestry products, oil palm, cereals and soybeans, though variation between countries and regions was large. A large (26%) and slightly increasing share of deforestation was attributed to international demand, the bulk of which (87%) was exported to countries that either exhibit decreasing deforestation rates or increasing forest cover (late- or post-forest transition countries), particularly in Europe and Asia (China, India, and Russia). About a third of the net forest gains in post-forest transition countries was in this way offset by imports of commodities causing deforestation elsewhere, suggesting that achieving a global forest transition will be substantially more challenging than achieving national or regional ones.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Beef, soybeans, palm oil, and timber are considered the “big four” of forest-risk commodities (Walker et al., 2013;Pendrill et al., 2019).”
From Making deforestation risk visible. Discourses on bovine leather supply chain in Brazil (2020) · cites this paper as Pendrill et al., 2019
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change
Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S. A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S. V., Goetz, S. J., Loveland, T. R., et al. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1244693 · Cited by 11,704
Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools
Seto, K. C., Güneralp, B., & Hutyra, L. R. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1211658109 · Cited by 5,086
Classifying drivers of global forest loss
Curtis, P. G., Slay, C. M., Harris, N. L., Tyukavina, A., & Hansen, M. C. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aau3445 · Cited by 2,340
Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s
Gibbs, H. K., Ruesch, A. S., Achard, F., Clayton, M. K., Holmgren, P., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0910275107 · Cited by 1,876
Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change
Rudel, T. K., Coomes, O. T., Moran, E., Achard, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E. (2005) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.11.001 · Cited by 1,387
An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries
Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., Angelsen, A., & Romijn, E. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009 · Cited by 1,366
Impacts of roads and linear clearings on tropical forests
Laurance, W. F., Goosem, M., & Laurance, S. G. W. (2009) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.009 · Cited by 1,243
Primary forest cover loss in Indonesia over 2000–2012
Margono, B. A., Potapov, P. V., Turubanova, S. A., Stolle, F., & Hansen, M. C. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2277 · Cited by 1,109
Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss
Baccini, A., Walker, W., Carvalho, L., Farina, M., Sulla-Menashe, D., & Houghton, R. A. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aam5962 · Cited by 904
Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
Sonter, L. J., Herrera, D., Barrett, D. J., Galford, G. L., Moran, C. J., & Soares-Filho, B. S. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00557-w · Cited by 723
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Evans, 2016, Deforestation in Australia: drivers, trends and policy responses. Pacific, Conservation Biol., 22, 130
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 301–380 of 380
Stand age drives changes in the biodiversity and microclimate of oil palm plantationsPreprint
de Lorm, T. A., Barclay, M., Bernard, H., Bush, E. R., Carbone, C., Hardwick, S. R., Milne, S., Parrett, J. M., Pfeifer, M., Rowcliffe, J. M., et al. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.10.31.682997 · Cited by 1
Quelles pistes pour freiner la « déforestation importée » ?
Karsenty, A., & Picard, N. (2021) · doi:10.64628/aak.5x3cvqapn
Leroy, M., Bontemps, J., Brahic, É., Dupouey, J., Forget, P., Garcia, S., Gond, V., von Lengefeld, A. N. K., Landmann, G., Morin, X., et al. (2021) · Revue Forestière Française · doi:10.20870/revforfr.2021.4992
Low- and Middle-Income Countries, Carbon Emissions, and Trade
Brenton, P. A., & Chemutai, V. (2021) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1770-0_ch2
Snashall, G. B. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4194447
Bagnolo, C. E. M., Hartmann, M. T., & Hartmann, P. A. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208125
García, J. L. M., Avalos, M. R., & Miguel, E. E. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208122
Santos, C. N. O., & Magalhães, L. S. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208129
PESCA ILEGAL Y LA SOBREPESCA ARTESANAL EN LA REDUCCIÓN DE VOLUMEN DE PESCA EN EL LITORAL DE ILO
Cruz, W. M., Chura, N. M. V., Quispe, L. G. H., Quispe, P. M. H., Quispe, B. D. H., & Frisancho, R. E. C. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208127
AVALIAÇÃO DA ATIVIDADE DO ÁCIDO KÓJICO/ ARBUTINA NO DESENVOLVIMENTO DO Aedes aegypti
Rique, H. L., dos Santos, C. F., de Oliveira, L. H. G., & Nunes, F. D. C. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208121
dos Reis, O. N., dos Santos, R. A. F., da Silva, N. C., Costa, J. M., & Fonseca, D. J. D. S. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208128
Barbosa, F. R. S., da Silva, J. P., Coelho, A. J. P., Mota, N. M., & Lacerda, F. D. C. B. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208124
García, J. L. M., Herrera, R. G., & Miguel, E. E. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.3832208123
Kaufer, R. (2023) · Contributions to political science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-18965-4_1
Juárez, H., Pradel, W., & Quispe, M. (2022) · doi:10.4160/9789290606420
UNA ACTUALIZACIÓN EN LA DISTRIBUCIÓN DEL MEXCLAPIQUE DE ZEMPOALA GIRARDINICHTHYS MULTIRADIATUS
Rodríguez-Varela, A. D. C., Cházaro–Olvera, S., Vázquez-López, H., Chávez-López, R., Morán-Silva, Á., & Cruz-Gómez, A. (2022) · doi:10.22533/at.ed.38322081210
Gain and Loss of Forest Cover in Ghana’s Forest Reserves in Three Selected National Parks
Peprah, K., Aabeyir, R., & Boasu, B. Y. (2023) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.109823
Hanusch, M. (2023) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1909-4_es
Validation Study for the Development of Vendor Business Schools in the Philippines
Biezen, L. V. D., & Ricarte, P. (2023) · doi:10.4160/cip.2023.08.001
Không hy sinh rừng để phát triển kinh tế - xã hội: Việt Nam lựa chọn lối hài hòa, cân bằng sinh tháiPreprint
AISDL, V.-A.-A., Hoàng, N. M., & Sơn, N. H. (2023) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/5ypd4
Không hy sinh rừng để phát triển kinh tế - xã hội: Việt Nam lựa chọn lối hài hòa, cân bằng sinh tháiPreprint
Hoàng, V. Q., Hoàng, N. M., & Sơn, N. H. (2023) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/ycwz9
The telecoupled sustainability impacts of global agricultural value chains
Parra-Paitan, C. (2024) · doi:10.5463/thesis.538 · Cited by 1
The Role of Remote Sensing in Forest Cover Changes in Butambala District, Central Uganda
Namayengo, S., & Nuwagira, U. (2024) · East African Journal of Forestry and Agroforestry · doi:10.37284/eajfa.7.1.1827
Beyond the buzz: A review of the prospects of replacing meat consumption with insect-based foodsPreprint
Biteau, C., Bry‐Chevalier, T., Crummett, D., Ryba, R., & Jules, M. S. (2024) · doi:10.32942/x2rg89
Hedemann-Robinson, M. (2024) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781800880849.00018
Marín, F., Báez, S., Bauters, M., Palomeque, X., Perring, M. P., Overtoom, N., Lopez, E. T., León‐Yánez, S., & Verbeeck, H. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4860278
Assessing the Forest Transition Hypothesis: Are Deforestation Dynamics Different Across Continents?Preprint
López, M. G. (2024) · Qeios · doi:10.32388/z53fc7
Decoupling the Food Supply from Impacts on Forest Endangered SpeciesPreprint
Shinoda, Y., Kadoya, T., Takeuchi, Y., & Nansai, K. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5005073
Agricultural Subsidies Augmented Tropical Deforestation in the State of Campeche, MexicoPreprint
Ellis, E. A., Castillo, D. C., Gómez, I. U. H., Madrid, S., & Cuervo, S. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5012403
Vuong, Q., Nguyen, M., La, V., & Nguyen, H.-S. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5142021
The (Other) China Shock and the Brazilian Soy Boom: Cui Bono?Preprint
Siewers, S. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5118985
Mapping food businesses with regenerative potential in the Amazon and Central American Dry Corridor
Levy, M. Y., Amante, B. L., Borrero, D., Bonilla-Muñoz, V. H., Guzmán, R., Rojas, C., Cotto, H., Detlefsen, G., & Vagliente, P. (2025) · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · doi:10.3389/fsufs.2025.1546626
Optimized messaging shifts choices towards plant-based foodPreprint
Thomas‐Walters, L., Anthis, J. R., & Tasoff, J. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5184250
Wang, Y., Hollingsworth, P. M., Zhai, D., West, C., Green, J., Harrison, S., Chen, H., Hurni, K., Yufang, S., Warren‐Thomas, E., et al. (2025) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08849-8
Salomão, C., Nascimento, N., & de Lima, L. S. (2025) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109766
Land-use in Brazil: changes and implications for conservation and ecosystem servicesPreprint
Ferraz, S. F. D. B., Corrêa, K. A. B., Cassiano, C. C., Precinoto, R. S., Melo, R. S., Paula, F., & Oliveira, P. C. D. R. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5658193
Decoding the water–energy–food nexus for carbon neutrality
Hoguane, C. A. M. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-22320-4.00025-6
Global Plastic Waste Reallocation and Pollution: Evidence from China’s Import BanPreprint
Li, B., Qin, Y., & Gao, Q. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5912062
Bausano, G., Masiero, M., Migliavacca, M., Pettenella, D., & Rougieux, P. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26617366
Figure 35 In The Glyptothorax Of Sundaland: A Revisionary Study (Teleostei: Sisoridae)
Ng, H. H., & Kottelat, M. (2016) · INFM-OAR (INFN Catania) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.165440
ADEQUAÇÃO DO CÁLCULO DO FATOR DE PRÁTICAS CONSERVACIONISTAS NA ESTIMATIVA DA PERDA DE SOLO
de Paula, A. L., dos Santos, A. P., Poletti, F. B., & Lourenço, R. W. (2025) · Raega - O Espaço Geográfico em Análise · doi:10.5380/raega.v63i1.100332
Trading away forests: embodied deforestation in agriculture and livestock through a gravity model
Frontuto, V., Revelli, G. L., & Dalmazzone, S. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae3191
Estoque, R. C., Wu, J., & Verburg, P. H. (2026) · Geography and sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100415 · Cited by 1
Liu, Y., Deng, X., & Gao, Y. (2026) · Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C · doi:10.1016/j.pce.2026.104341
Yan, Y. (2026) · Forest Policy and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103736
Global patterns, supply-chain flows, and driving factors of forest loss footprints from 2001 to 2022Preprint
Gong, M., Liu, Z., Li, Y., Wang, X., Qu, S., Yinglan, A., Wu, J., Wang, G., & Wang, Q. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-8944281/v1
Towards Net-Zero emissions in Asia: The roles of agriculture and renewable energy
Pickson, R. B., Li, X., Boateng, E., & Tuffour, J. K. (2026) · Gondwana Research · doi:10.1016/j.gr.2026.02.020
Empirical analysis of the links between China’s forest product imports and tropical forest loss
Sun, X., Hammett, A. L. T., & Bush, R. J. (2026) · The International Forestry Review · doi:10.1505/146554826840903096
Rose, D. U. D., Consales, A., Salvatori, G., Giannì, M. L., Fumagalli, M., Orfeo, L., Mosca, F., Agosti, M., & Dotta, A. (2026) · Pediatric Research · doi:10.1038/s41390-026-05011-6
Bausano, G., Masiero, M., Rougieux, P., Kilsedar, E. C., Pettenella, D., Patani, S., Mubareka, S., & Migliavacca, M. (2026) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.109056
Relational aspects and care-based support in Zero-Deforestation Commitments
Chandra, A., Grabs, J., Meemken, E., & Garrett, R. D. (2026) · PLOS Sustainability and Transformation · doi:10.1371/journal.pstr.0000235
Eckert, S., Seghezzo, L., Venencia, C., Insaurralde, C. O., Zwyssig, L., Sonderegger, G., & Giger, M. (2026) · Global Environmental Change Advances · doi:10.1016/j.gecadv.2026.100033
La industria alimentaria, energética y tecnológica como neofascismo ecocida primordial
González, R. M. (2026) · Revista Internacional de Educación y Análisis Social Crítico Mañé Ferrer & Swartz · doi:10.51896/easc.v4i1.1234
Breaking Erysichthon's curse: Unlocking economic growth while sparing forests in Brazil
Hanusch, M., & Filho, J. B. D. S. F. (2026) · Forest Policy and Economics · doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103834
Silva, B. B., Brum, D., Loregian, A. C., Urruth, L. M., & Tozetti, A. M. (2026) · Agroforestry Systems · doi:10.1007/s10457-026-01557-w
Lauro, S., Dalmazzone, S., Vacchiano, G., & Bagliani, M. (2026) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.109142
Stigler, M., Grabs, J., Heilmayr, R., Carlson, K. M., Chandra, A., Benedict, J. J., & Garrett, R. D. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2511503123 · Cited by 2
Wood, R. A., Stadler, K., Moran, D. D., Jørgensen, P. S., Nguyen, C., Hertwich, E. G., & Weinzettel, J. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10299849/v1
Fernando, G., Dilmith, T., Dassanayaka, T., Rajapaksha, T., & Pathiranage, H. S. K. (2026) · Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences · doi:10.1007/s44447-026-00182-4
Beyond Averages: A Continental Analysis of Forest Transition HeterogeneityPreprint
López, M. G. (2026) · Qeios · doi:10.32388/z53fc7.2
Ferrero, D., Varese, G. C., Spina, F., Galliano, S., Glicerina, V., Bertea, C. M., Zeppa, G., Gasco, L., & Barolo, C. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7181695
Tatia, A., Agarwal, S., Chachad, S. P., Agarwal, D., & Limbad, R. (2026) · IGI Global eBooks · doi:10.4018/979-8-2600-0532-3.ch009
He, J., Wang, Z., & Liu, J. (2026) · Environmental and Sustainability Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.indic.2026.101456
Sustainable RelationshipsPreprint
Prete, D. D., Guye, V., & Tolva, E. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7237155
The pantropical biodiversity footprint of oil palm
Zhu, Y., Choo, J., Xia, C., & Carrasco, L. R. (2026) · Conservation Science and Practice · doi:10.1111/csp2.70394
Does deforestation-free palm oil trade deliver value to local people? Evidence from Indonesia
Purnomo, H., Okarda, B., Kusumadewi, S. D., Kartikasara, H. N., DERMAWAN, A., Ilham, O. P., Puspitaloka, D., Brady, M. A., & Juniyanti, L. (2026) · The International Forestry Review · doi:10.1505/146554826841495206
Beyond the forest: Land-use transitions and the futures of cocoa in post-forest Côte d’Ivoire
Belalia, S., & Roberto, H. D. (2026) · Journal of Rural Studies · doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2026.104383
Addo‐Fordjour, P., Awortwi, F. E., Obodai, C. E., Aboagye, F. B., France, C. N. L., Kusi-Appiah, N. S. B., & Oppong, D. (2026) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0357446
Corporate ESG assessments fail to capture actual deforestation exposure
Zhu, Y., Sulaeman, J., & Carrasco, L. R. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2526924123
Traceability without De-Risking? Origin Reweighting after China's Timber-Legality ReformPreprint
Ma, R. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7459905
Chepeliev, M. G., Ebadi, E., Damania, R., Taheripour, F., Zaveri, E. D., & Russ, J. D. (2026) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.109224
power of consumer knowledge in achieving sustainable goals
Tóbis, A. O., & Bartha, Z. (2026) · Applied Business and Economics Journal · doi:10.61089/abej.2026.4.207
Tang, C., Yunyi, M., Yang, Y., & Li, G. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7499839
Kahigi, N. S., Machunda, R., Mkunda, J. J., & Mwema, M. F. (2026) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0349715
Desmiwati, D., & Surati, S. (2026) · Sodality Jurnal Sosiologi Pedesaan · doi:10.22500/14202672836
Metadata
- Authors
- Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., & Kastner, T.
- Affiliations
- Chalmers University of Technology (SE)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Persson, U Martin
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2019-05-01
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 055003
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2921450810
- Cited by
- 381
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 78 · 2022: 68 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 4
- FWCI
- 19.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Chalmers Research (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (The Trase.earth program)
- Naturvårdsverket (Environmental Research Appropriation 1:5)
- Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (2016-00351)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Keywords
- deforestation, forest transition, forest-risk commodities, international trade, land use change, forest cover change, tropical and subtropical forests, cattle meat, oil palm, forest plantations
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
