Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level
Open accessAbstract
The 2015 Paris Agreement sets out that rapid reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are needed to keep global warming to safe levels. A new approach (known as GWP*) has been suggested to compare contributions of long- and short-lived GHGs, providing a close link between cumulative CO 2-equivalent emissions and total warming. However, comparison factors for non-CO 2 GHGs under the GWP* metric depend on past emissions, and hence raise questions of equity and fairness when applied at any but the global level. The use of GWP* would put most developing countries at a disadvantage compared to developed countries, because when using GWP* countries with high historical emissions of short-lived GHGs are exempted from accounting for avoidable future warming that is caused by sustaining these emissions. We show that when various established equity or fairness criteria are applied to GWP* (defined here as eGWP*), perceived national non-CO 2 emissions vary by more than an order of magnitude, particularly in countries with high methane emissions like New Zealand. We show that national emission estimates that use GWP* are very sensitive to arbitrary choices made by countries and therewith facilitate the creation of loopholes when CO 2-equivalent emissions based on the GWP* concept are traded between countries that use different approaches. In light of such equity-dependent accounting differences, GHG metrics like GWP* should only be used at the global level. A common, transparent and equity-neutral accounting metric is vital for the Paris Agreement’s effectiveness and its environmental integrity.
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Although there is no additional warming under a constant level of CH4 emissions, historical emissions are still warming the planet and maintaining ongoing damages from climate change.
“However, although there is no additional warming under a constant level of CH4 emissions, the historical emissions are still warming the planet (compared to what would have happened without those emissions) and maintaining ongoing damages from climate change25.”
From Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions (2023) · cites this paper as [25]
The Methods say continued methane emissions cause little additional future warming and that historical emissions have already caused warming; the Main text also describes stabilizing emissions as stabilizing warming at current levels. But the paper says a roughly 10% methane-emissions reduction over 20 years is needed for close to no change in its modeled warming contribution, rather than saying constant emissions cause no additional warming. Our copy does not explicitly address ongoing climate damages. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredGWP* has been criticized for its reliance on arbitrary baseline emissions, resulting in unfair comparisons between countries in their contribution to warming.
“However, GWP* has been criticized for its reliance on (arbitrary) baseline emissions (a grandfathering principle), resulting in unfair comparisons between countries in their contribution to warming25,26.”
From Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions (2023) · cites this paper as [25]
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References 31 · Cited by 96
Research works printed but not linked: 22
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- Authors
- Rogelj, J., & Schleussner, C.-F.
- Affiliations
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Rogelj, Joeri
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2019-11-01
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 114039
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2977967981
- Cited by
- 96
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 2
- FWCI
- 14.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- edoc Publication server (Humboldt University of Berlin) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- European Commission (HORIZON2020, 820829)
- Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Keywords
- non-CO2 greenhouse gases, equity and fairness, Paris Agreement, methane emissions, CO2 equivalent emissions, developing countries, New Zealand
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