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Cited by 42Soil Carbon and Nitrogen DynamicsAgriculture Sustainability and Environmental ImpactRuminant Nutrition and Digestive Physiology

Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions

Open access
Wang, Yue, de Boer, Imke J. M., Persson, U. Martin, Ripoll-Bosch, Raimon, Cederberg, Christel, Gerber, Pierre J., Smith, Pete, van Middelaar, Corina E.·2023·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-43452-3PMC PMC10665458
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Abstract

Carbon sequestration in grasslands has been proposed as an important means to offset greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant systems. To understand the potential and limitations of this strategy, we need to acknowledge that soil carbon sequestration is a time-limited benefit, and there are intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases. Here, our analysis shows that one tonne of carbon sequestrated can offset radiative forcing of a continuous emission of 0.99 kg methane or 0.1 kg nitrous oxide per year over 100 years. About 135 gigatonnes of carbon is required to offset the continuous methane and nitrous oxide emissions from ruminant sector worldwide, nearly twice the current global carbon stock in managed grasslands. For various regions, grassland carbon stocks would need to increase by approximately 25% − 2,000%, indicating that solely relying on carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper uses a simple climate model to equate one-off soil carbon sequestration with continuous methane and nitrous oxide emissions, finding that one tonne of sequestered carbon can offset 0.99 kg CH4 or 0.1 kg N2O per year over 100 years. It concludes that relying on grassland soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions is infeasible, requiring about 135 Gt C—nearly twice the current global carbon stock in managed grasslands.

Key findings

  • One tonne of sequestered carbon offsets the radiative forcing of a continuous emission of 0.99 kg CH4 per year or 0.1 kg N2O per year over 100 years; for global surface temperature change, it offsets 1.05 kg CH4 per year over 100 years.
  • The global ruminant sector released approximately 110 megatons of CH4 and 2.4 megatons of N2O annually; offsetting these emissions requires increasing SOC stock in global grasslands by 135 Gt C, almost equal to all SOC loss due to agriculture in the past 12,000 years.
  • Current global SOC stock in managed grasslands used for ruminants is estimated at 78 Gt C; regional SOC stocks would need to increase by about 25% to nearly 2,000%. South Asia has the highest total requirement (34 Gt SOC), requiring 563 t SOC per ha versus a current stock of 28 t ha−1.
  • In the most optimistic case, one hectare of grassland sequestering an additional 50 t SOC can compensate enteric CH4 emissions of about 1.25 cattle, implying only extensive systems with cattle density mostly below one head per hectare could potentially be offset.

Methods

  • A simple linearized climate model (Persson & Johansson v2.0, based on IPCC AR6 radiative efficiencies and perturbation lifetimes) was used to calculate radiative forcing and global surface temperature change for pulse and continuous emissions; 500-year horizons were used for gas comparisons and 100 years for soil carbon application.
  • Cumulative soil carbon sequestration was translated into a one-off CO2 pulse in year one using conversion ratios, with three alternative scenarios tested in supplementary analysis.
  • Ruminant emissions were derived from GLEAM 3.0 (2015 reference year) for cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats across 11 regions; enteric CH4 emission factors came from IPCC Tier 1 values (41–138 kg head−1 year−1, rounded to 40–140), SOC stocks from GSOCseq v1.1 (0–30 cm, 2020), and grassland sequestration potential from IPCC default C stocks and stock change factors (5–50 t C ha−1).

Limitations

  • The paper states that the 100-year timeframe favors carbon sequestration, yearly emissions were assumed constant although animal numbers are projected to increase, SOC stock and sequestration data are uncertain and sensitive to methodological choices, translating sequestration into a one-off pulse neglects its long-term process, and the simple linearized model may not accurately reflect global aggregated values; a MAGICC7 comparison supported the main conclusion.
  • The paper states it does not attempt to precisely quantify the extent to which sequestration can offset emissions, but rather to demonstrate an approach and raise awareness of limited mitigation potential.
  • Evident from the text: the offsetting framework excludes continuous CO2 emissions because their climate impact accumulates and cannot be equated to one-off sequestration, and it assumes agricultural energy use would eventually be largely decarbonized.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41467-023-43452-3

Cites

56 of 56 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

28 of 73 cited sources checked · 15 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Existing studies generally determine one single value, calculated as the sum of annual GHG emissions minus CO2 removal by soil C-sequestration.

    “To explore the potential for SOC increases to mitigate climate change, existing studies generally determine one single value, calculated as the sum of annual GHG emissions minus CO2 removal by soil C-sequestration11,16.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [11] Stanley, P. L., Rowntree, J. E., Beede, D. K., DeLonge, M. S. & Hamm, M. W. Impacts of soil carbon sequestration on life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in Midwestern USA beef finishing systems. Agric Syst. 162, 249–258 (2018). source

      Section 2.7.3 describes calculating a single net GHG value by combining beef-production emissions with reductions from soil C sequestration, so the paper uses the stated calculation itself. But the Introduction says many other studies did not consider soil C sequestration, and section 4.5 says SOC measurements have not typically been factored into their outcomes. That contradicts the claim that existing studies generally use this calculation. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [16] Knudsen, M. T. et al. The importance of including soil carbon changes, ecotoxicity and biodiversity impacts in environmental life cycle assessments of organic and conventional milk in Western Europe. J. Clean. Prod. 215, 433–443 (2019). source

      In “Soil carbon changes” (page unavailable), the paper includes soil carbon changes in its climate-change result and reports that they reduce the carbon footprint by 5–18%. This supports combining emissions and sequestration in a net result, but the paper does not establish that existing studies generally calculate a single value by directly subtracting annual CO₂ removal from annual GHG emissions; its own method models the longer-term effects of one year’s carbon input. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Interpretationreasoning

    Soil C-sequestration potential in grasslands can only possibly cancel out a continuous flow of enteric CH4 emissions in rather extensive systems, mostly with a cattle density lower than one head per hectare.

    “The low values of cattle numbers in Fig. 3 indicate that soil C-sequestration potential in grasslands can only possibly cancel out a continuous flow of enteric CH4 emissions in rather extensive systems (mostly with a cattle density lower than one head per hectare), whereas the density in practice is generally much higher than that32,33.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [32] Dale, A. J., Laidlaw, A. S., McGettrick, S., Gordon, A. & Ferris, C. P. The effect of grazing intensity on the performance of high-yielding dairy cows. Grass Forage Sci. 73, 798–810 (2018). source
    • cites [33] Piipponen, J. et al. Global trends in grassland carrying capacity and relative stocking density of livestock. Glob. Chang Biol. 28, 3902–3919 (2022). source

      The Results and Interpretation section reports livestock densities relative to grassland carrying capacity and says that many grazing lands are near or above their estimated capacity. It does not establish that cattle density is generally above one head per hectare. The paper also does not assess whether grassland soil carbon sequestration can offset continuing enteric methane emissions; that is the citing authors’ inference, not a finding of this source. (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Long-term soil carbon sequestration can be represented as a one-off pulse of CO2 in year one for the purpose of GHG accounting.
  • Premisecitation

    The estimated C-sequestration potential in global grasslands is 0.6-2.2 Gt annually for a few decades.

    “This is unlikely given the estimated C-sequestration potential in global grasslands of 0.6-2.2 Gt annually for a few decades35,41.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [35] Dondini, M. et al. Global assessment of soil carbon in grasslands: From current stock estimates to sequestration potential. FAO Animal Production and Health Paper No. 187. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc3981en (2023). source

      Section 4.3 estimates that grassland soils could reach about 17% of a 3.5 Gt C/year target—approximately 0.6 Gt C/year. Section 2.5 models sequestration after 20 years of improved management. Our copy does not support the upper estimate of 2.2 Gt C/year, so it does not establish the quoted range. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [41] Bai, Y. & Cotrufo, M. F. Grassland soil carbon sequestration: Current understanding, challenges, and solutions. Science 377, 603–608 (2022). source
  • Findingown data

    East Europe shows the smallest gap between current SOC stock and required C-sequestration in grasslands.

    “East Europe shows the smallest gap between current SOC stock and required C-sequestration in grasslands (Figs. 4b, c) but is reported to have a negligible sequestration potential in grassland soils35.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] Dondini, M. et al. Global assessment of soil carbon in grasslands: From current stock estimates to sequestration potential. FAO Animal Production and Health Paper No. 187. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc3981en (2023). source
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Long-term soil carbon sequestration can be represented as a one-off pulse of CO2 in year one for the purpose of GHG accounting.
  • Study design and conductcitation

    Estimations of the extent of grasslands globally and their current SOC stocks vary across studies due to the definition of grasslands and data uncertainties.

    “Estimation of the extent of grasslands globally and their current SOC stocks vary across studies due to the definition of grasslands and data uncertainties35,38,39.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [35] Dondini, M. et al. Global assessment of soil carbon in grasslands: From current stock estimates to sequestration potential. FAO Animal Production and Health Paper No. 187. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc3981en (2023). source
    • cites [38] Liu, L. et al. The grassland carbon cycle: Mechanisms, responses to global changes, and potential contribution to carbon neutrality. Fundam. Res 3, 209–218 (2023). source

      The Introduction estimates that grasslands cover about 40% of land, and ‘The soil dominates grassland organic carbon storage’ gives a range for global grassland carbon storage. ‘Improving the accuracy of grassland carbon sink estimates’ describes uncertainty from spatial heterogeneity, methods, and upscaling. The copy does not say that differing definitions of grasslands cause estimates of their extent or current SOC stocks to vary; its stated uncertainty concerns carbon-sink estimates. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [39] Chang, J. et al. Climate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands. Nat. Commun. 12, 118 (2021). source

      The Methods section (page unavailable) defines the grassland area used in this study and acknowledges scarce data and uncertainty for changes in grassland soil carbon. The Results and discussion section (page unavailable) mentions three soil-carbon-stock datasets. Neither section establishes that estimates of global grassland extent and current SOC stocks vary across studies because of differing definitions and data uncertainties. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • May combine two claims. 25
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 16

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    A SOC increase of 50 t ha−1 seems rather challenging and might be rarely reached.

    “It is worth emphasizing that, compared with the findings from other studies which investigated soil C-sequestration potential34,35, a SOC increase of 50 t ha−1 seems to be rather challenging and might be rarely reached.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [34] Henryson, K. et al. Higher carbon sequestration on Swedish dairy farms compared with other farm types as revealed by national soil inventories. Carbon Manag. 13, 266–278 (2022). source
    • cites [35] Dondini, M. et al. Global assessment of soil carbon in grasslands: From current stock estimates to sequestration potential. FAO Animal Production and Health Paper No. 187. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc3981en (2023). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    N2O has a relatively longer perturbation lifetime of 109 years and is more potent compared to CO2 and CH4.

    “N2O has a relative longer perturbation lifetime (109 years) and is also more potent compared to CO2 and CH423.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [23] Forster, P. et al. The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, https://doi source

      No passage in our indexed copy addresses N2O’s 109-year perturbation lifetime or compares its potency with CO2 and CH4. Searches for “N2O,” “nitrous oxide,” “109,” and “perturbation lifetime” returned no relevant passage; the material retrieved is website navigation and a notice that the chapter’s HTML is unavailable. (LLM, conf=0.70)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    CH4 has a much higher impact on radiative forcing than CO2 and a much shorter perturbation lifetime.

    “Comparing the impact behaviors of the same amount of CH4 and CO2, for example, CH4 has a much higher impact on radiative forcing than CO2 (i.e., approximate 120 times higher in the first year after the emission) and a much shorter perturbation lifetime (11.8 years for CH4 and millennia for CO2)17,23.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [17] Persson, U. M., Johansson, D. J. A., Cederberg, C., Hedenus, F. & Bryngelsson, D. Climate metrics and the carbon footprint of livestock products: Where’s the beef? Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 034005 (2015). source

      The Background–GHG metrics section says that methane is much shorter-lived than CO2 and compares the radiative forcing of equal-mass emissions, supporting the qualitative claim. Our copy does not give the citing sentence’s specific figures of approximately 120 times greater forcing in the first year or lifetimes of 11.8 years and millennia. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [23] Forster, P. et al. The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, https://doi source

      The available copy contains a chapter listing and a notice that the chapter text is available only as a PDF; it provides no substantive passage to assess this claim. Searches for CH4, methane, radiative forcing, and the stated 11.8-year lifetime found no relevant passage in the indexed copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Although there is no additional warming under a constant level of CH4 emissions, historical emissions are still warming the planet and maintaining ongoing damages from climate change.

    “However, although there is no additional warming under a constant level of CH4 emissions, the historical emissions are still warming the planet (compared to what would have happened without those emissions) and maintaining ongoing damages from climate change25.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [25] Rogelj, J. & Schleussner, C.-F. F. Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 114039 (2019). source

      The Methods say continued methane emissions cause little additional future warming and that historical emissions have already caused warming; the Main text also describes stabilizing emissions as stabilizing warming at current levels. But the paper says a roughly 10% methane-emissions reduction over 20 years is needed for close to no change in its modeled warming contribution, rather than saying constant emissions cause no additional warming. Our copy does not explicitly address ongoing climate damages. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    GWP* relates the climate impact of a one-off release of CO2 to a change in the rate of CH4 emissions.

    “Capturing this difference between long- and short-lived GHGs is precisely the logic behind the GWP*, which relates the climate impact of a one-off release of CO2 to a change in the rate of CH4 emissions18,24.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [18] Allen, M. R. et al. A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 1, 1–8 (2018). source
    • cites [24] Allen, M. R. et al. New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 773–776 (2016). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    GWPs mask the end-point impact of emissions and are considered inappropriate for the goals of the Paris Agreement.

    “In other word, GWPs mask the end-point impact of the emissions and therefore, is considered inappropriate for the goals of the Paris Agreement19.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Collins, W. J., Frame, D. J., Fuglestvedt, J. S. & Shine, K. P. Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species-combining steps and pulses. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 024018 (2020). source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    GWP* has been criticized for its reliance on arbitrary baseline emissions, resulting in unfair comparisons between countries in their contribution to warming.

    “However, GWP* has been criticized for its reliance on (arbitrary) baseline emissions (a grandfathering principle), resulting in unfair comparisons between countries in their contribution to warming25,26.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [25] Rogelj, J. & Schleussner, C.-F. F. Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 114039 (2019). source
    • cites [26] Meinshausen, M. & Nicholls, Z. GWP* is a model, not a metric. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 041002 (2022). source

      Section 5 says GWP* weights the same emissions differently depending on a country's historical emissions and criticizes this lack of metric neutrality. That supports the concern about unfair country comparisons, but our copy does not describe the historical reference as an arbitrary baseline or call it a grandfathering principle. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Equal CO2-eq for different GHGs implies equal integrated radiative forcing of one emission pulse over a certain timeframe, but says little about the contribution of the emission pulse to radiative forcing and temperature change at a certain point in time.

    “Equal CO2-eq for different GHGs implies equal integrated radiative forcing of one emission pulse over a certain timeframe, but it says little about the contribution of the emission pulse of a gas to radiative forcing - and temperature change - at a certain point in time17,18.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [17] Persson, U. M., Johansson, D. J. A., Cederberg, C., Hedenus, F. & Bryngelsson, D. Climate metrics and the carbon footprint of livestock products: Where’s the beef? Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 034005 (2015). source

      Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [18] Allen, M. R. et al. A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 1, 1–8 (2018). source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    SOC storage is one of the multiple functions of soils, among which trade-offs exist.

    “Furthermore, it is of equal importance to realize that SOC storage is one of the multiple functions of soils, among which trade-offs exist and need to be carefully addressed50.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [50] Moinet, G. Y. K., Hijbeek, R., van Vuuren, D. P. & Giller, K. E. Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon. Glob. Chang. Biol 29, 2384–2398 (2023). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Increasing SOC stocks does not necessarily result in an increase in yield and might lead to more N2O emissions.

    “For instance, increasing SOC stocks does not necessarily result in an increase in yield and might lead to more N2O emissions48,50.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [48] Garnett, T. et al. Grazed and Confused? Ruminating on cattle, grazing systems, methane, nitrous oxide, the soil carbon sequestration question and what it all means for greenhouse gas emissions. FCRN, University of Oxford. (2017).
    • cites [50] Moinet, G. Y. K., Hijbeek, R., van Vuuren, D. P. & Giller, K. E. Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon. Glob. Chang. Biol 29, 2384–2398 (2023). source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The assumption on finiteness of soil C-sequestration is disputed.

    “The assumption on finiteness of soil C-sequestration is also disputed, which is crucial in determining its long-term potential of C-sequestration52.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [52] Begill, N., Don, A. & Poeplau, C. No detectable upper limit of mineral-associated organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils. Glob. Chang. Biol 29, 4662–4669 (2023). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The global ruminant sector released approximately 110 megatons of CH4 and 2.4 megatons of N2O annually, with CH4 emission from cattle as the dominant source.

    “Based on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM 3.0)36, the global ruminant sector (i.e., cattle, buffaloes, goats and sheep) released approximately 110 megatons of CH4 and 2.4 megatons of N2O annually, with CH4 emission from cattle as the dominant source.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [36] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). Model Description, Version 3.0 (2022).

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In the most optimistic case, compensating a continuous annual flow of 40 kg CH4 per cattle would require nearly 40 t SOC to be stored in grassland, equal to about 0.8 hectares of grassland with a C-sequestration potential of 50 t ha−1.

    “In the most optimistic case (i.e., maximum C-sequestration potential with least CH4 emission), compensating a continuous annual flow of 40 kg CH4 per cattle would require an additional amount of nearly 40 t SOC to be stored in the grassland, which equals about 0.8 hectares of grassland representing a C-sequestration potential of 50 t ha−1.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] IPCC. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Calvo Buendia, E., Tanabe, K., Kranjc, A., Baasansuren, J., Fukuda, M., Ngarize, S., Osako, A., Pyrozhenko, Y., Shermanau, P. and Federici, S. (eds). Published: IPCC, Switzerland (2019).

      Not checked in the free run.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: Long-term soil carbon sequestration can be represented as a one-off pulse of CO2 in year one for the purpose of GHG accounting.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    South Asia has the highest total C-sequestration requirement, 34 Gt of SOC, corresponding to 563 t SOC per ha of managed grassland, which is many times higher than the current SOC stock of 28 t ha−1.

    “For instance, South Asia has the highest total C-sequestration requirement (i.e., 34 Gt of SOC). This results in a requirement of 563 t SOC to be sequestered per ha of managed grassland, which is many times higher than the current SOC stock in grassland in the region (i.e., 28 t ha−1) (Fig. 4c).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [36] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). Model Description, Version 3.0 (2022).

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [40] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Global Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration Potential Map – GSOCseq v.1.1. Technical report. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb9002en (2022). source
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Long-term soil carbon sequestration can be represented as a one-off pulse of CO2 in year one for the purpose of GHG accounting.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The amount of CO2 that needs to be stored to compensate the climate impact of a continuous flow of one tonne of CH4 per year over 100 years is about 3.7 kt for radiative forcing and 3.5 kt for global surface temperature change.

    “Given a 100-year timeframe, for example, the amount of CO2 that needs to be stored to compensate the climate impact of a continuous flow of CH4 (one t per year) equals about 3.7 kt for RF and 3.5 kt for global surface temperature change (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Persson, U. M. & Johansson, D. J. A. Simple climate model (Version 2.0). https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5957222 (2022). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The radiative forcing of a continuous flow of CO2 emissions increases practically indefinitely, while the radiative forcing of continuous flows of CH4 and N2O stabilizes with time.

    “The RF of a continuous flow of CO2 emissions increases (practically) indefinitely, while the RF of a continuous flow of CH4 and N2O stabilize with time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Persson, U. M. & Johansson, D. J. A. Simple climate model (Version 2.0). https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5957222 (2022). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The time to reach a new equilibrium for continuous emissions is a few decades for CH4 and more than 500 years for N2O.

    “The longer the perturbation lifetime of the gas, the longer the time it takes to reach the new equilibrium (i.e., a few decades for CH4 and more than 500 years for N2O).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Persson, U. M. & Johansson, D. J. A. Simple climate model (Version 2.0). https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5957222 (2022). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Soil C-sequestration potential of grasslands in the selected regions varies from 5 to 50 t C ha−1, with the lowest value in sandy soils in tropical dry regions and the highest in high activity clay soils in cool temperate moist regions.

    “Soil C-sequestration potential of grasslands in the selected regions vary from 5 to 50 t C ha−1, with the lowest value occurs in sandy soils in tropical dry regions and the highest value occurs in high activity clay soils in cool temperate moist regions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    The lowest enteric CH4 emission factor (41 kg head−1 year−1) occurs in the Indian Subcontinent, and the highest (138 kg head−1 year−1) occurs in highly productive commercialized dairy system in North America.

    “The lowest value (41 kg head −1 year−1) occurs in the Indian Subcontinent, who has the smallest cattle compared with other regions, whereas the highest value (138 kg head −1 year−1) occurs in highly productive commercialized dairy system in North America.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30] Lauder, A. R. et al. Offsetting methane emissions — An alternative to emission equivalence metrics. Int. J. Greenh. Gas. Contro 12, 419–429 (2013). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Using a climate model allows sidestepping the arbitrary choice on baseline emissions while accounting for historical warming.

    “Using a climate model allows to sidestep the arbitrary choice on baseline emissions while accounting for historical warming.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    The conversion results are within the range of values found in earlier work equating continuous emissions of CH4 with a pulse emission of CO2.

    “These results are within the range of values found in earlier work equating continues emissions of CH4 with a pulse emission of CO230.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30] Lauder, A. R. et al. Offsetting methane emissions — An alternative to emission equivalence metrics. Int. J. Greenh. Gas. Contro 12, 419–429 (2013). source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Soil C-sequestration is usually assumed to be temporary and there is a common perception that there is an upper limit to the amount of carbon that can be sequestered.

    “Soil C-sequestration, however, is usually assumed to be temporary and it is a common perception that there is an upper limit to the amount of C that can be sequestrated14.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [14] Jørgensen, S. V. & Hauschild, M. Z. Need for relevant timescales when crediting temporary carbon storage. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 18, 747–754 (2013). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    When accounting for the differences between continued emission sources and sequestration of SOC, the claim that ruminant systems can have a negative annual GHG balance via soil C-sequestration is overly optimistic and could be misleading at least at global or regional level.

    “Building on the approach, we demonstrate that when accounting for the differences between continued emission sources and sequestration of SOC, the claim that ruminant systems can have a negative annual GHG balance via soil C-sequestration is overly optimistic and could be misleading (at least at global or regional level).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Long-term soil carbon sequestration can be represented as a one-off pulse of CO2 in year one for the purpose of GHG accounting.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Because the climate benefits of CO2 removal fade away while the climate impacts of CH4 slightly increase, more carbon needs to be sequestered to offset continuous emissions over a longer timeframe.

    “It is worth noting that while the climate benefits of CO2 removal fade away, the climate impacts of CH4 slightly increase (Fig. 1). This implies that more C needs to be sequestrated to offset continuous emissions over a longer timeframe (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Persson, U. M. & Johansson, D. J. A. Simple climate model (Version 2.0). https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5957222 (2022). source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    The result was estimated using a simple linearized climate model with the main purpose of giving a sense of orders of magnitude.

    “Note that the result was estimated using the simple linearized climate model with a main purpose of giving a sense for orders of magnitude (see Discussion for the uncertainty of the model).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Persson, U. M. & Johansson, D. J. A. Simple climate model (Version 2.0). https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5957222 (2022). source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The differences in gaps between current stocks and required C-sequestration among regions are explained by multiple factors, such as differences in livestock density, extent of grasslands, farm management or natural conditions.

    “The differences in gaps between current stocks and required C-sequestration among regions are explained by multiple factors, such as differences in livestock density (animal number per hectare), extent of grasslands, farm management (e.g., level and type of feed input, grassland management) or natural conditions (e.g., soil type and climate).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Such a method has rarely been used to incorporate soil C-sequestration in the GHG accounting of ruminant systems.

    “Such a method, to our best knowledge, has rarely been used to incorporate soil C-sequestration in the GHG accounting of ruminant systems.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The approach is particularly valid for CH4 compared with N2O because CH4 is less time-varying.

    “Moreover, the approach is particularly valid for CH4 (less time-varying) compared with N2O.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    For dairy cattle, animal size and milk production are important determinants of emission; for other cattle, animal size, population structure and production systems implemented are important determinants of emission factors.

    “For dairy cattle, animal size and milk production are important determinants of emission, while for other cattle, animal size, population structure and production systems implemented are important determinants of emission factors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [30] Lauder, A. R. et al. Offsetting methane emissions — An alternative to emission equivalence metrics. Int. J. Greenh. Gas. Contro 12, 419–429 (2013). source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The analysis was built on a simple linearized model, which was initially developed for small perturbations and may not necessarily reflect global aggregated values accurately.

    “Lastly, the analysis of this study was built on a simple linearized model, which was initially developed for small perturbations and may not necessarily reflect global aggregated values accurately as in our results.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    The study's conclusions are not challenged by the exact timing and values of the soil C stock changes.

    “Although our conclusions are not challenged by the exact timing and values of the soil C stock changes (Supplementary Fig. 1), better acquisition and accessibility to the data regarding variation at SOC stocks and potentials for C-sequestration in different soils and climates would be helpful for describing the role of soils in climate change mitigation in different circumstances53.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Soil C-sequestration is a dynamic process, and hence, SOC stocks are constantly changing.

    “Soil C-sequestration is a dynamic process, and hence, SOC stocks are constantly changing, which raises concerns on the relevant timescales when crediting temporary C-sequestration14.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [14] Jørgensen, S. V. & Hauschild, M. Z. Need for relevant timescales when crediting temporary carbon storage. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 18, 747–754 (2013). source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Demonstrating results for 500 years provides sufficient information to distinguish differences between GHGs and reveal the long-term trend of the impact.

    “Regarding the climate impact of different GHGs, we demonstrate the results for 500 years, which provides sufficient information to distinguish the differences between GHGs as well as revealing the long-term trend of the impact.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The continuum of intensity management options in grasslands will affect the capacity to increase SOC stocks and can lead to a wider range of benefits to society.

    “The continuum of intensity management options in grasslands will not only affect the capacity to increase SOC stocks in the soil, but also can lead to a wider range of benefits to society49.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [49] Lindborg, R. et al. Ecosystem services provided by semi-natural and intensified grasslands: Synergies, trade-offs and linkages to plant traits and functional richness. Appl Veg. Sci. 26, e12729 (2023). source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The results were tested using a reduced-complexity climate model (MAGICC7) that captures some bio-geophysical non-linearities in the climate system.

    “To get insight into the uncertainties of our global estimates, we tested the results using a reduced-complexity climate model (MAGICC7) that captures some of the bio-geophysical non-linearities in the climate system54 (Supplementary Note 3).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [54] Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B. & Wigley, T. M. L. Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1417–1456 (2011). source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In most cases, soils find the new equilibrium within 100 years and do not sequester C anymore unless changing the land use.

    “In most cases, the soils find the new equilibrium within 100 years and do not sequester C anymore unless changing the land use15,31”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [15] Smith, P. Do grasslands act as a perpetual sink for carbon? Glob. Chang. Biol. 20, 2708–2711 (2014). source
    • cites [31] IPCC. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Calvo Buendia, E., Tanabe, K., Kranjc, A., Baasansuren, J., Fukuda, M., Ngarize, S., Osako, A., Pyrozhenko, Y., Shermanau, P. and Federici, S. (eds). Published: IPCC, Switzerland (2019).

      Not checked in the free run.

36 of 36

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Long-term soil carbon sequestration can be represented as a one-off pulse of CO2 in year one for the purpose of GHG accounting.

    “In our approach, the long-term soil C-sequestration was translated into a one-off pulse of CO2 in year one to overcome data limitations and to facilitate the application of the approach.”
    “The results are largely consistent with our estimates, indicating that our assumption to translate C-sequestration into a one-off pulse of CO2 is justifiable.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The yearly GHG emissions from ruminants were assumed to be constant as a simplified scenario.

    “Secondly, the yearly GHG emissions from ruminants were assumed to be constant as a simplified scenario, whereas global animal numbers are projected to increase rather than stabilize.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Global animal numbers are projected to increase rather than stabilize.

    “Secondly, the yearly GHG emissions from ruminants were assumed to be constant as a simplified scenario, whereas global animal numbers are projected to increase rather than stabilize.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The radiative forcing of continuous emission of CH4 stabilizes within 100 years.

    “2) The radiative forcing of continuous emission of CH4 (the primary concerned gas in this study) stabilizes within 100 years;”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    A 100-year horizon is the most commonly-used timeframe in existing studies regarding GHG metrics.

    “4) A 100-year horizon is the most commonly-used timeframe in existing studies regarding GHG metrics, which allows our results to be compatible with other research.”
5 of 5

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Twelve regions listed as eleven

    Minor

    The Methods state that emissions were derived for 11 regions, but the accompanying list names 12.

  • Conflicting maximum enteric methane emission factor

    Minor

    The Results give a cattle enteric methane emission range ending at 160 kg per head per year, but the Methods say the range used for display was rounded to a maximum of 140 kg per head per year.

2 of 2

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Related

Authors
Wang, Y., de Boer, I. J. M., Persson, U. M., Ripoll-Bosch, R., Cederberg, C., Gerber, P. J., Smith, P., & van Middelaar, C. E.
Affiliations
  • Wageningen University & Research (NL)
  • Chalmers University of Technology (SE)
  • World Bank Group (US)
  • University of Aberdeen (GB)
Corresponding author
Wang, Yue
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2023-11-22
Volume
14
Issue
1
Pages
7625-7625
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-023-43452-3
PMC
PMC10665458
OpenAlex
W4388902490
Semantic Scholar
4ba388c1004d69736bf704a9cc97ad6c9605e685
Cited by
39
References
54
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 14
FWCI
5.52
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Chalmers Research (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • China Scholarship Council (201906350227)
  • Sino-Dutch Dairy Development Center of China Agricultural University
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Ruminant Nutrition and Digestive Physiology
Keywords
soil carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, methane, nitrous oxide, radiative forcing, managed grasslands, carbon offsetting, ruminant livestock

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-23.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-23.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

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