Expiring Eviction Moratoriums and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality
Open accessAbstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated economic crisis have placed millions of US households at risk of eviction. Evictions may accelerate COVID-19 transmission by decreasing individuals’ ability to socially distance. We leveraged variation in the expiration of eviction moratoriums in US states to test for associations between evictions and COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The study included 44 US states that instituted eviction moratoriums, followed from March 13 to September 3, 2020. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach with an event-study specification. Negative binomial regression models of cases and deaths included fixed effects for state and week and controlled for time-varying indicators of testing, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and mask mandates. COVID-19 incidence and mortality increased steadily in states after eviction moratoriums expired, and expiration was associated with a doubling of COVID-19 incidence (incidence rate ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 3.9) and a 5-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality (mortality rate ratio = 5.4; CI: 3.1, 9.3) 16 weeks after moratoriums lapsed. These results imply an estimated 433,700 excess cases (CI: 365,200, 502,200) and 10,700 excess deaths (CI: 8,900, 12,500) nationally by September 3, 2020. The expiration of eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality, supporting the public-health rationale for eviction prevention to limit COVID-19 cases and deaths.
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A US study in 2021 showed that when the eviction moratoriums established during COVID-19 were subsequently lifted, the incidence of infections and mortality steadily increased.
“A US study in 2021 showed that when the eviction moratoriums established during COVID-19 were subsequently lifted, the incidence of infections and mortality steadily increased.”
From Review of the Impact of Housing Quality on Inequalities in Health and Well-Being (2023) · cites this paper as [95]
The increase in infections and mortality after eviction moratoriums were lifted was probably due to increasing crowding and individuals' decreased ability to socially distance.
“This outcome was probably due to increasing crowding and individuals' decreased ability to socially distance (95).”
From Review of the Impact of Housing Quality on Inequalities in Health and Well-Being (2023) · cites this paper as [95]
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Review of the Impact of Housing Quality on Inequalities in Health and Well-Being
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- Authors
- Leifheit, K. M., Linton, S. L., Raifman, J., Schwartz, G. L., Benfer, E. A., Zimmerman, F. J., & Pollack, C. E.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Corresponding author
- Leifheit, Kathryn M
- ORCID
- Venue
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2021-07-26
- Volume
- 190
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 2503-2510
- ISSN
- 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-6256
- PMC
- PMC8634574
- OpenAlex
- W3186364513
- Cited by
- 140
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 2 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 10.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
- Gilead Sciences (COVID-19)
- Enterprise Community Partners
- Princeton University
- Wake Forest University
- Johns Hopkins University (COVID-19)
- Amicus Therapeutics
- National Institutes of Health (UL1TR001430)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (T32HS000046, 2T32-HS000046)
- University of California, Los Angeles
- University of California, San Francisco
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
- Clinical and Translational Science Institute, Boston University (1UL1TR001430)
- National Institute of Mental Health (R25MH083620)
- National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › COVID-19 impact on air quality
- Keywords
- eviction moratorium, eviction, COVID-19 incidence, COVID-19 mortality, eviction prevention, housing insecurity, social distancing, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, economic crisis, state policy
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Housing, Humans, Mortality, Poverty, Public Health, Public Policy, United States, Incidence, Pandemics
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