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Cited by 119Marine Ecology and Invasive SpeciesPhysiological and biochemical adaptationsFish Ecology and Management Studies

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Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

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Marras, Stefano, Cucco, Andrea, Antognarelli, Fabio, Azzurro, Ernesto, Milazzo, Marco, Bariche, Michel, Butenschön, Momme, Kay, Susan, Di Bitetto, Massimiliano, Quattrocchi, Giovanni, Sinerchia, Matteo, Domenici, Paolo·2015·Conservation Physiology
DOI 10.1093/conphys/cou059PMC PMC4778460
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Abstract

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

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  • The dramatic changes in eastern Mediterranean ecosystems are better explained by the combined effects of climate change and biological invasions than by climate change alone.

    “Climate change has played a crucial role in the alteration of eastern Mediterranean ecosystems and the collapse of several species (Rilov 2016; Albano et al. 2021), but these dramatic changes are better explained as a result of the combined effects of climate change and biological invasions (Marras et al. 2015; Azzurro et al. 2019; Yeruham et al.”

    From Bioinvasion impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human health in the Mediterranean Sea (2022) · cites this paper as Marras et al. 2015

    The Discussion (page unavailable in our copy) says that predicting the success of invasive fish requires considering competition as well as warming, and predicts that an invasive fish may replace a native fish in parts of the eastern Mediterranean. It does not establish that combined climate change and biological invasions better explain dramatic ecosystem-wide changes than climate change alone. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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Authors
Marras, S., Cucco, A., Antognarelli, F., Azzurro, E., Milazzo, M., Bariche, M., Butenschön, M., Kay, S., Di Bitetto, M., Quattrocchi, G., Sinerchia, M., & Domenici, P.
Affiliations
  • Institute for Coastal Marine Environment (IT)
  • Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (IT)
  • University of Palermo (IT)
  • American University of Beirut (LB)
  • Plymouth Marine Laboratory (GB)
Corresponding author
Marras, Stefano
ORCID
Venue
Conservation Physiology
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2015
Volume
3
Issue
1
Pages
cou059
ISSN
2051-1434 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1093/conphys/cou059
PMC
PMC4778460
OpenAlex
W2068892513
Cited by
119
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 10 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 1
FWCI
7.93
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by
Locations
  • Conservation Physiology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Marine Biological Association (acceptedVersion)
  • Nova Science Publishers (Nova Science Publishers, Inc.) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • European Commission (266445)
  • Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca (2007–2013)
  • Natural Environment Research Council (pml010010)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine Ecology and Invasive Species
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Keywords
invasive fish, Siganus rivulatus, Sarpa salpa, range expansion, Mediterranean Sea, Sicilian Channel, ocean modeling, heat tolerance, herbivorous fish, global warming

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