Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective
Open accessAbstract
Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
With an estimated 65,000 cases a year, Lyme borreliosis is responsible for the largest disease burden of any vector-borne disease in the European Union.
“With an estimated 65,000 cases a year, Lyme borreliosis is responsible for the largest disease burden of any vector-borne disease in the European Union [133].”
From A One Health Perspective on the Human-Companion Animal Relationship with Emphasis on Zoonotic Aspects. (2020) · cites this paper as [133]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe
Medlock, J. M., Hansford, K. M., Bormane, A., Derdakova, M., Estrada-Peña, A., George, J.-C., Golovljova, I., Jaenson, T. G. T., Jensen, J.-K., Jensen, P. M., et al. (2013) · Parasites & Vectors · doi:10.1186/1756-3305-6-1 · Cited by 1,215 · see citing works
Spread of The Tiger: Global Risk of Invasion by The Mosquito <i>Aedes albopictus</i>
Benedict, M. Q., Levine, R. S., Hawley, W. A., & Lounibos, L. P. (2007) · Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases · doi:10.1089/vbz.2006.0562 · Cited by 1,027 · see citing works
Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe
Semenza, J. C., & Menne, B. (2009) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(09)70104-5 · Cited by 679 · see citing works
Self-citationDetecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change
Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C., & Woodward, A. (2017) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp1509 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 68
- Altizer S, Ostfeld RS, Johnson PTJ lsquorClimate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive frameworkrsquor. Science 2013; 341: 514– 9. 23908230
- Boeckmann M, Joyner TA lsquorOld health risks in new places? An ecological niche model for I. ricinus tick distribution in Europe under a changing climatersquor. Health Place 2014; 30: 70– 7. 25216209
- Caminade C, Kovats S, Rocklov J lsquorImpact of climate change on global malaria distributionrsquor. P Natl Acad Sci USA 2014; 111: 3286– 91. PMC3948226 24596427
- Caminade C, Medlock JM, Ducheyne E Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios. J Roy Soc Interface 2012; 9: 2708– 17. 22535696 PMC3427500
- Charrel RN, de Lamballerie X, Raoult D lsquorSeasonality of mosquitoes and chikungunya in Italyrsquor. Lancet Infect Dis 2008; 8: 5– 6. 18156081
- Daniel M, Danielova V, Kriz B Shift of the tick Ixodes ricinus and tick-borne encephalitis to higher altitudes in central Europe. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 2003; 22: 327– 8. 12736793
- Delisle E, Rousseau C, Broche B Chikungunya outbreak in Montpellier, France, September to October 2014. Euro Surveill 2015; 20:pii:21108. 25955774
- Estrada-Peña A, Ayllón N, de la Fuente J Impact of climate trends on tick-borne pathogen transmission. Front Physiol 2012; 3, DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2012.00064. PMC3313475 22470348 · DOI
- Estrada-Peña A, Jameson L, Medlock J Unraveling the ecological complexities of tick-associated Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus transmission: a gap analysis for the western palearctic. Vector-Borne Zoonot Dis 2012; 12: 743– 52. 22448676
- Estrada-Pena A, Ortega C, Sanchez N Correlation of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato prevalence in questing Ixodes ricinus ticks with specific abiotic traits in the Western Palearctic. Appl Environ Microbiol 2011; 77: 3838– 45. 21498767 PMC3127598
- Evlampidou I, Danis K, Lenglet A Malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices among migrants from malaria-endemic countries in evrotas, Laconia, Greece, 2013. Euro Surveill 2015; 20, DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.33.21208. 26314403 · DOI
- Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C lsquorTemperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germanyrsquor. Geospatial Health 2010; 5: 59– 69. 21080321
- Fischer D, Moeller P, Thomas SM Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2011; 5: e1407. 22140590 PMC3226457
- Fischer D, Thomas SM, Suk JE Climate change effects on chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus’ temperature requirements. Int J Health Geogr 2013; 12, DOI: 10.1186/1476-072X-12-51. PMC3834102 24219507 · DOI
- Florescu SA, Popescu CP, Calistru P Plasmodium vivax malaria in a Romanian traveller returning from Greece, August 2011. Euro Surveill 2011; 16:pii:19954. 21903043
- Gething PW, Smith DL, Patil AP Climate change and the global malaria recession. Nature 2010; 465: 342– 5. 20485434 PMC2885436
- Gjenero-Margan I, Aleraj B, Krajcar D Autochthonous dengue fever in Croatia, August–September 2010. Euro Surveill 2011; 16:pii:, 19805. 21392489
- Gouriet F, Rolain J-M, Raoult D Rickettsia slovaca infection, France. Emerg Infect Dis 2006; 12: 521– 23. 16710981 PMC3293430
- Grandadam M, Caro V, Plumet S Chikungunya virus, southeastern France. Emerg Infect Dis 2011; 17: 910– 3. 21529410 PMC3321794
- Heinz FX, Stiasny K, Holzmann H Emergence of tick-borne encephalitis in new endemic areas in Austria: 42 years of surveillance. Euro Surveill 2015; 20: 9– 16. 25860391
- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Summary for Policymakers: Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
- Jaenson TGT, Jaenson DGE, Eisen L Changes in the geographical distribution and abundance of the tick Ixodes ricinus during the past 30 years in Sweden. Parasit Vectors 2012; 5: 8. 22233771 PMC3311093
- Jaenson TGT, Lindgren E The range of Ixodes ricinus and the risk of contracting Lyme borreliosis will increase northwards when the vegetation period becomes longer. Ticks Tick-Borne Dis 2011; 2: 44– 9. 21771536
- Jones K, Patel N, Levy M Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 2008; 451: 990– 4. 18288193 PMC5960580
- Lindgren E, Andersson Y, Suk JE Monitoring EU emerging infectious disease risk due to climate change. Science 2012; 336: 418– 9. 22539705
- La Ruche G, Souares Y, Armengaud A First two autochthonous dengue virus infections in metropolitan France, September 2010. Euro Surveill 2010; 15:pii:19676. 20929659
- Maltezou HC, Papa A Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever: risk for emergence of new endemic foci in Europe?. Travel Med Infect Dis 2010; 8: 139– 43. 20541133
- Marcantonio M, Rizzoli A, Metz M Identifying the environmental conditions favouring West Nile Virus outbreaks in Europe. PLoS One 2015; 10: e0121158. 25803814 PMC4372576
- Maroli M, Rossi L, Baldelli R The northward spread of leishmaniasis in Italy: evidence from retrospective and ongoing studies on the canine reservoir and phlebotomine vectors. Trop Med Int Health 2008; 13: 256– 64 18304273
- McIntyre KM, Setzkorn C, Hepworth PJ Systematic assessment of the climate sensitivity of important human and domestic pathogens in Europe. Sci Rep 2017; 7: 7134. 28769039 PMC5541049
- McMichael AJ Globalization, climate change, and human health. N Engl J Med 2013; 368: 1335– 43. 23550671
- Medlock JM, Leach SA Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lancet Infect Dis 2015; 15: 721– 30. 25808458
- Negev M, Paz S, Clermont A Impacts of climate change on vector borne diseases in the mediterranean basin — implications for preparedness and adaptation policy. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2015; 12: 6745– 70. 26084000 PMC4483728
- Nsoesie EO, Kraemer MUG, Golding N Global distribution and environmental suitability for chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015. Euro Surveill 2016; 21:pii:30234. PMC4902126 27239817
- Ostfeld RS, Brunner JL Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans. Philos T Roy Soc B: Biol Sci 2015; 370: 1– 11. PMC4342967 25688022
- Parham PE, Waldock J, Christophides GK Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission. Philos T Roy Soc B: Biol Sci 2015; 370: 1– 17. PMC4342957 25688012
- Paz S, Semenza JC Environmental drivers of West Nile fever epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia–a review. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2013; 10: 3543– 62. 23939389 PMC3774453
- Paz S, Malkinson D, Green MS Permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile fever upsurge. PLoS One 2013; 8: e56398. 23431374 PMC3576399
- Petersen LR, Brault AC, Nasci RS West Nile Virus: review of the literature. JAMA 2013; 310: 308– 15. 23860989 PMC4563989
- Porretta D, Mastrantonio V, Amendolia S Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling. Parasit Vectors 2013; 6: 271. 24330500 PMC3848450
- Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Ergüler K Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation. Philos T Roy Soc B: Biol Sci 2015; 370: 1– 16. PMC4342960 25688015
- Randolph SE Tick-borne encephalitis incidence in Central and Eastern Europe: consequences of political transition. Microbes Infect 2008; 10: 209– 16. 18316221
- Randolph SE, Rogers DJ The arrival, establishment and spread of exotic diseases: patterns and predictions. Nat Rev Microbiol 2010; 8: 361– 71. 20372156
- Ready PD Leishmaniasis emergence in Europe. Euro Surveill 2010; 15:pii:19505. 20403308
- Rezza G, Nicoletti L, Angelini R Infection with chikungunya virus in Italy: an outbreak in a temperate region. Lancet North Am Ed 2007; 370: 1840– 6. 18061059
- Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V RCP 8.5 – a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Change 2011; 109: 33.
- Rodó X, Pascual M, Doblas-Reyes FJ Climate change and infectious diseases: can we meet the needs for better prediction?. Clim Change 2013; 118, 625– 40.
- Roiz D, Neteler M, Castellani C Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy. Pub Libr Sci ONE 2011; 6: e14800. PMC3078124 21525991
- Rogers DJ, Suk JE, Semenza JC Using global maps to predict the risk of dengue in Europe. Acta Trop 2014; 129: 1– 14. 23973561
- Semenza JC Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2015; 12: 6333– 51. 26042370 PMC4483704
- Semenza JC, Zeller H Integrated surveillance for prevention and control of emerging vector-borne diseases in Europe. Euro Surveill 2014; 19:pii:20757. 24721535
- Semenza JC, Rocklöv J, Penttinen P Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2016a; 1382: 73– 83. 27434370 PMC7167773
- Semenza JC, Carillo-Santisteve P, Zeller H Public health needs of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers in Europe, 2015: infectious disease aspects. Eur J Public Health 2016b; 26: 372– 3. 27053729
- Semenza JC, Lindgren E, Balkanyi L Determinants and drivers of infectious disease threat events in Europe. Emerg Infect Dis 2016c; 22: 581– 9. 26982104 PMC4806948
- Semenza JC, Sudre B, Miniota J International dispersal of dengue through air travel: importation risk for Europe. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2014; 8: e3278. 25474491 PMC4256202
- Semenza JC, Tran A, Espinosa L Climate change projections of West Nile Virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices. Environ Health 2016; 15(Suppl 1): 28. 26961903 PMC4895699
- Sudre B, Rossi M, Van Bortel W Mapping environmental suitability for malaria transmission, Greece. Emerg Infect Dis 2013; 19: 784– 6. 23697370 PMC3647495
- Suk JE, Semenza JC Future infectious disease threats to Europe. Am J Public Health 2011; 101: 2068– 79. 21940915 PMC3222407
- Suk JE, Van Cangh T, Beauté J The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases. Glob Health Action 2014a; 7, DOI: 10.3402/gha.v7.25287. PMC4195207 25308818 · DOI
- Suk JE, Ebi KL, Vose D Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2014b; 11: 2218– 35. 24566049 PMC3945594
- Suk JE Climate change, malaria, and public health: accounting for socioeconomic contexts in past debates and future research. WIREs Clim Change 2016; 7: 551– 68.
- Süss J, Klaus C, Diller R TBE incidence versus virus prevalence and increased prevalence of the TBE virus in Ixodes ricinus removed from humans. Int J Med Microbiol 2006; 296: 63– 8. 16495152
- Tatem AJ, Hay SI, Rogers DJ Global traffic and disease vector dispersal. PNAS 2006; 103: 6242– 7. 16606847 PMC1435368
- Tjaden NB, Suk JE, Fischer D Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century. Sci Rep 2017; 7: 3813. 28630444 PMC5476675
- Trájer AJ, Bede-Fazekas Á, Hufnagel L The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species. Appl Ecol Environ Res 2013; 11: 189– 208.
- Tran A, Sudre B, Paz S Environmental predictors of West Nile fever risk in Europe. Int J Health Geogr 2014; 13: 26. 24986363 PMC4118316
- Van Bortel W, Dorleans F, Rosine J Chikungunya outbreak in the Caribbean region, December 2013 to March 2014, and the significance for Europe. Euro Surveill 2014; 19:pii:20759. 24721539
- Venturi G, Di Luca M, Fortuna C Detection of a chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy, August to September 2017. Euro Surveill 2017; 22:pii=17-00646. PMC5709953 29019306
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Overgaauw, P. A. M., Vinke, C. M., van Hagen, M. A. E., & Lipman, L. J. A. (2020) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph17113789 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
“A three-year European Union funded project entitled CALLISTO (Companion Animal multisectoriaL interprofessionaL and interdisciplinary Strategic Think tank On zoonoses), has investigated zoonotic infectious diseases transmitted between companion animals and humans and food producing animals [176].”
BackgroundClemens, V., von Hirschhausen, E., & Fegert, J. M. (2022) · European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1007/s00787-020-01615-3 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Thoma, M. V., Rohleder, N., & Rohner, S. L. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.675936 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry
Semenza, J. C., & Ebi, K. L. (2019) · Journal of Travel Medicine · doi:10.1093/jtm/taz026 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Self-citationMOLECULAR INVESTIGATION OF VECTOR-BORNE PATHOGENS IN RED FOXES (VULPES VULPES) FROM SOUTHERN FRANCE
Medkour, H., Laidoudi, Y., Marié, J.-L., Fenollar, F., Davoust, B., & Mediannikov, O. (2020) · Journal of Wildlife Diseases · doi:10.7589/2019-09-234 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
- Authors
- Semenza, J. C., & Suk, J. E.
- Affiliations
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Semenza, Jan C
- Venue
- FEMS Microbiology Letters
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2017-11-15
- Volume
- 365
- Issue
- 2
- ISSN
- 0378-1097 (ISSN-L)
- 1574-6968
- PMC
- PMC5812531
- OpenAlex
- W2768665307
- Cited by
- 458
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 73 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 57 · 2022: 61 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 19 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 2.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- FEMS Microbiology Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Keywords
- vector-borne diseases, climate change, Ixodes ricinus, Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis, Aedes albopictus, Zika virus, dengue, chikungunya, Phlebotomus sand flies, leishmaniasis, West Nile fever, temperature anomalies, epidemic forecasting, early warning systems, climate change adaptation, Europe
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Disease Outbreaks, Europe, Forecasting, Humans, Insect Vectors, Culicidae, Psychodidae, Ticks, Climate Change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review