Population ageing in the United States of America: implications for public programmes
Abstract
Like the rest of the world, the US is an ageing society. This will place substantial additional pressure on publicly-funded health, long-term and income support programmes for older people. This paper analyses the demographic changes that the US faces and how they will affect those programmes, concentrating on the factors that may affect the economic burden that these programmes impose. Like the rest of the world, the US is an ageing society (Table 1). Between 2000 and 2050, the number of older people is projected to increase by 135%. Moreover, the population aged 85 and over, which is the group most likely to need health and long-term care services, is projected to increase by 350%. Over this time period, the proportion of the population that is over the age of 65 will increase from 12.7% in 2000 to 20.3% in 2050; the proportion of the population that is age 85 and older will increase from 1.6% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2050.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The resulting gap between demand for and supply of care will burden patients, care professionals, and health care systems in the near future.
“The gap between the demand for and supply of care that results from these changes will put a burden on patients, care professionals, and health care systems in the near future [2,3].”
From Experiences of Multidisciplinary Development Team Members During User-Centered Design of Telecare Products and Services: A Qualitative Study (2014) · cites this paper as [2]
Cites
Mantón, K. G., & Gu, X. (2001) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.111152298 · Cited by 663 · see citing works
Implications of an Aging Registered Nurse Workforce
Buerhaus, P. I. (2000) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.283.22.2948 · Cited by 593 · see citing works
Population Aging: A Comparison Among Industrialized Countries
Anderson, G. F., & Hussey, P. S. (2000) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.19.3.191 · Cited by 480 · see citing works
National health expenditures: a global analysis.
Murray, C. J. L., Govindaraj, R., & Musgrove, P. (1994) · PubMed · Cited by 420 · see citing works
Understanding trends in functional limitations among older Americans.
Freedman, V. A., & Martin, L. G. (1998) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.88.10.1457 · Cited by 304 · see citing works
Bourke, J. B. (1988) · Journal of AOAC INTERNATIONAL · doi:10.1093/jaoac/71.1.179a · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Crimmins, E. M., Saito, Y., & Reynolds, S. L. (1997) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/52b.2.s59 · Cited by 256 · see citing works
Disability trends among elderly persons and implications for the future
Waidmann, T. A., & Liu, K. (2000) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences · doi:10.1093/geronb/55.5.s298 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Contribution of chronic conditions to aggregate changes in old-age functioning
Freedman, V. A., & Martin, L. G. (2000) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.90.11.1755 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Where Are The Missing Elders? The Decline In Nursing Home Use, 1985 And 1995
Bishop, C. E. (1999) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.18.4.146 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Singer, B. H., & Manton, K. G. (1998) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.95.26.15618 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Coping With Aging: International Challenges
Jacobzone, S. (2000) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.19.3.213 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society
Gruber, J., & Wise, D. A. (2001) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w8103 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Three Decades Of Health Care Use By The Elderly, 1965–1998
Lubitz, J. D., Greenberg, L. G., Gorina, Y., Wartzman, L., & Gibson, D. (2001) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.20.2.19 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Caring for the disabled elderly: who will pay?
(1989) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.26-3324 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Sharing the burden: strategies for public and private long-term care insurance
(1994) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.32-1651 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
American Health-care Association
Baucus, M. S. (2005) · International Journal of Health Care Quality Assurance · doi:10.1108/ijhcqa.2005.06218aab.009 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Liao, Y., McGee, D., Cao, G., & Cooper, R. (2001) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1046/j.1532-5415.2001.49089.x · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Immigration and the Regional Demographics of the Elderly Population in the United States
Rogers, A., & Raymer, J. (2001) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/56.1.s44 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Marmor, T., & Oberlander, J. (1998) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.17.1.52 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Chronic Illness: Implications of a New Paradigm for Health Care
Pawlson, L. G. (1994) · The Joint Commission Journal on Quality Improvement · doi:10.1016/s1070-3241(16)30051-7 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Current approaches to integrating acute and long-term care financing and services
Wiener, J. M., & Shaggs, J. (1995) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationMedicare spending for elderly beneficiaries who need long-term care.
Komisar, H., Hunt-McCool, J., & Feder, J. (1998) · PubMed · Cited by 12 · see citing works
State Pharmaceutical Assistance Programs For Older And Disabled Americans
Tilly, J. A., & Wiener, J. M. (2001) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.20.5.223 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationBudgeting for Social Security Or: When Are Savings Really Savings?
White, J. (2000) · Public Budgeting & Finance · doi:10.1111/0275-1100.00017 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Reforming Medicare's Benefit Package: Impact on Beneficiary Expenditures
Moon, M. L. (2001) · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Caring for the elderly: the embodied labour of migrant care workers in Singapore
HUANG, S., YEOH, B. S. A., & TOYOTA, M. (2012) · Global Networks · doi:10.1111/j.1471-0374.2012.00347.x · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Wei, L., Gregorich, Z. R., Lin, Z., Cai, W., Jin, Y., McKiernan, S. H., McIlwain, S., Aiken, J. M., Moss, R. L., Diffee, G. M., et al. (2018) · Molecular & Cellular Proteomics · doi:10.1074/mcp.ra117.000124 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Vermeulen, J., Verwey, R., Hochstenbach, L. M., van der Weegen, S., Man, Y. P., & de Witte, L. P. (2014) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/jmir.3195 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Jagai, J. S., Smith, G. S., Schmid, J. E., & Wade, T. J. (2014) · BMC Gastroenterology · doi:10.1186/s12876-014-0211-0 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
- Authors
- Wiener, J. M., & Tilly, J.
- Affiliations
- Urban Institute (US)
- ORCID
- Wiener, Joshua M
- Venue
- International Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2002-08
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 776-781
- ISSN
- 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
- 1464-3685
- OpenAlex
- W2109921660
- Cited by
- 271
- References
- 26
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 32 · 2014: 55 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 8.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Aging, Elder Care, and Social Issues
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Global Health Care Issues
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- population aging, older adults, government programs, health programs, long-term care, income support, economic burden, population projections, United States
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aging, Delivery of Health Care, Demography, Humans, Politics, Population Dynamics, Public Policy, United States
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review