Population-Level Impact of the Bivalent, Quadrivalent, and Nonavalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccines: A Model–Based Analysis
Abstract
Background Bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now licensed in several countries. Furthermore, clinical trials examining the efficacy of a nonavalent vaccine are underway. We aimed to compare the potential population-level effectiveness of the bivalent, quadrivalent, and candidate nonavalent HPV vaccines. Methods We developed an individual-based, transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and disease in a population stratified by age, gender, sexual activity, and screening behavior. The model was calibrated to highly stratified sexual behavior, HPV epidemiology, and cervical screening data from Canada. Results Under base case assumptions, vaccinating 12-year-old girls (70% coverage) with the bivalent (quadrivalent) vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative incidence of anogenital warts (AGWs) by 0.0% (72.1%), diagnosed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions 2 and 3 (CIN2 and -3) by 51.0% (46.1%), and cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) by 31.9% (30.5%), over 70 years. Changing from a bivalent (quadrivalent) to a nonavalent vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative number of AGW episodes by an additional 66.7% (0.0%), CIN2 and -3 episodes by an additional 9.3% (12.5%), and SCC cases by an additional 4.8% (6.6%) over 70 years. Differences in predicted population-level effectiveness between the vaccines were most sensitive to duration of protection and the time horizon of analysis. The vaccines produced similar effectiveness at preve…
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The study used a comparative modelling approach including three models that have been extensively peer reviewed and validated with post-vaccination surveillance data.
“First, we used a comparative modelling approach including three models that have been extensively peer reviewed and validated with post-vaccination surveillance data.30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36”
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Brisson, M., Kim, J. J., Canfell, K., Drolet, M., Gingras, G., Burger, E. A., Martin, D., Simms, K. T., Bénard, É., Boily, M.-C., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30068-4 · Cited by 943 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem
Brisson, M., & Drolet, M. (2019) · The Lancet Oncology · doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(19)30072-5 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Self-citationSenapati, R., Nayak, B., Kar, S. K., & Dwibedi, B. (2017) · BMC Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2136-4 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Resende, L. S. D. A., Rabelo-Santos, S. H., Sarian, L. O., Alves, R. R. F., Ribeiro, A. A., Zeferino, L. C., & Derchain, S. (2014) · BMC Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-214 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Haderxhanaj, L. T., Leichliter, J. S., Aral, S. O., & Chesson, H. W. (2014) · Sexually Transmitted Diseases · doi:10.1097/olq.0000000000000132 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
- Authors
- Van de Velde, N., Boily, M.-C., Drolet, M., Franco, E. L., Mayrand, M.-H., Kliewer, E. V., Coutlée, F., Laprise, J.-F., Malagón, T., & Brisson, M.
- Affiliations
- BC Cancer Agency (CA)
- ORCID
- Venue
- JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2012-10-27
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 22
- Pages
- 1712-1723
- ISSN
- 0027-8874 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-2105
- OpenAlex
- W2148969651
- Cited by
- 140
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 13.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research (83320)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Cervical Cancer and HPV Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Genital Health and Disease
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Microbiology › Reproductive tract infections research
- Keywords
- HPV vaccine, bivalent HPV vaccine, quadrivalent HPV vaccine, nonavalent HPV vaccine, genital warts, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical squamous cell carcinoma, HPV-associated cancers, dynamic transmission model, vaccination coverage, vaccine protection duration, cervical cancer screening
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Canada, Uterine Cervical Dysplasia, Uterine Cervical Neoplasms, Child, Condylomata Acuminata, Female, Humans, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Sexual Behavior, Models, Statistical, Incidence, Papillomavirus Infections, Papillomavirus Vaccines, Young Adult
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