The Contribution of Species Distribution Modelling to Conservation Prioritization

Abstract

This chapter provides information on species distribution models (SDMs) and their use in conservation prioritization. In it we aim to give readers an understanding of the breadth of methods and applications of SDM, and to equip them to identify and resolve key decisions in creating a robust model. Our primary objectives are to describe the main methodological steps required to fit and evaluate an SDM, and to summarize the most common problems with SDMs in the context of spatial prioritization, pointing to methods for dealing with these problems or alternative approaches that might be more suitable. Note that in terms of scope, we ignore the wider use of SDMs to make inferences about ecological relationships only because this broader application is tangential to the particular focus of this volume. To provide a context for these objectives we begin in sections 6.1 and 6.2 by outlining what SDMs are, their ecological bases, what they are commonly used for, and the benefits they offer for spatial prioritization. In Section 6.3 we then outline the broad classes of models, and provide a commentary on their relative utility so that a newcomer can understand how to choose a method and set of analyses appropriate for their particular data and prioritization problem. Details on evaluation and on methodological steps and problems in building SDMs are treated in Sections 6.4 and 6.5. We then provide an illustrative example of fitting and evaluating SDMs in Section 6.6. Finally, Section 6.7 includes brief comment on limitations and future directions.