The DOI matches its Crossref record; 11 of the 11 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective
Open accessAbstract
We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy’s GDP, jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to be output-constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining, and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants, and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply- and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks—we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.
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Cites
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Verity, R., Okell, L. C., Dorigatti, I., Winskill, P., Whittaker, C., Imai, N., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Thompson, H., Walker, P. G. T., Fu, H., et al. (2020) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30243-7 · Cited by 3,660
Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020) · doi:10.3386/w27017 · Cited by 737
Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L., & Werning, I. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26918 · Cited by 736
How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?
Dingel, J., & Neiman, B. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26948 · Cited by 422
How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic
Baker, S., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26949 · Cited by 365
Business disruptions from social distancing
Koren, M., & Pető, R. (2020) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0239113 · Cited by 264
The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic
Keogh‐Brown, M. R., Wren‐Lewis, S., Edmunds, W. J., Beutels, P., & Smith, R. D. (2010) · Health Economics · doi:10.1002/hec.1554 · Cited by 183
Social and economic impact of school closure resulting from pandemic influenza A/H1N1
Chen, W., Huang, A. S.-E., Chuang, J.-H., Chiu, C.-C., & Kuo, H. (2011) · Journal of Infection · doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2011.01.007 · Cited by 102
Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School Closures in the U.S.
Lempel, H., Epstein, J. M., & Hammond, R. A. (2009) · PLoS Currents · doi:10.1371/currents.rrn1051 · Cited by 94
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Health, Distress and Life Satisfaction of People in China One Month into the COVID-19 OutbreakPreprint
Zhang, S. X., Wang, Y., Rauch, A., & Wei, F. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3555216 · Cited by 40
Cited by
Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?
Hepburn, C., O’Callaghan, B., Stern, N., Stiglitz, J., & Zenghelis, D. (2020) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/graa015 · Cited by 771
Global supply chains in the pandemic
Bonadio, B., Huo, Z., Levchenko, A. A., & Pandalai-Nayar, N. (2021) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103534 · Cited by 396
Girum, T., Lentiro, K., Geremew, M., Migora, B., Shewamare, S., & Shimbre, M. S. (2021) · Archives of Public Health · doi:10.1186/s13690-021-00663-8 · Cited by 99
Covid Crisis Experiences of Hungarian Small Family Farms Engaged in Multifunctional Agriculture
Ujj, A., Pércsi, K. N., Bazsik, I., Harkányi, A., & Jancsovszka, P. (2023) · European Countryside · doi:10.2478/euco-2023-0025 · Cited by 2
Metadata
- Authors
- del Rio-Chanona, R. M., Mealy, P., Pichler, A., Lafond, F., & Farmer, J. D.
- Venue
- Oxford Review of Economic Policy
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2020
- Volume
- 36
- Issue
- Supplement_1
- Pages
- S94-S137
- ISSN
- 0266-903X (ISSN-L)
- 1460-2121
- OpenAlex
- W3015446691
- Cited by
- 578
- References
- 11
- FWCI
- 94.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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