The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories: The Ins and Outs of Lagged Dependent Variables
Abstract
A lagged dependent variable in an OLS regression is often used as a means of capturing dynamic effects in political processes and as a method for ridding the model of autocorrelation. But recent work contends that the lagged dependent variable specification is too problematic for use in most situations. More specifically, if residual autocorrelation is present, the lagged dependent variable causes the coefficients for explanatory variables to be biased downward. We use a Monte Carlo analysis to assess empirically how much bias is present when a lagged dependent variable is used under a wide variety of circumstances. In our analysis, we compare the performance of the lagged dependent variable model to several other time series models. We show that while the lagged dependent variable is inappropriate in some circumstances, it remains an appropriate model for the dynamic theories often tested by applied analysts. From the analysis, we develop several practical suggestions on when and how to use lagged dependent variables on the right-hand side of a model.
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Cites
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Cited by
Brulle, R. J., Carmichael, J., & Jenkins, J. C. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y · Cited by 1,123
Modeling Dynamics in Time-Series–Cross-Section Political Economy Data
Beck, N., & Katz, J. N. (2011) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-071510-103222 · Cited by 825
Kim, H., & Sikkink, K. (2010) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00621.x · Cited by 401
Effects of internet use on health and depression: a longitudinal study
Bessière, K., Pressman, S., Kiesler, S., & Kraut, R. (2010) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/jmir.1149 · Cited by 270
“Lagged dependent variable regression is appropriate for testing dynamic theories of change, in which states or events at one time influence states or events at a later time [63].”
MethodGrowing closer on facebook: changes in tie strength through social network site use
Burke, M., & Kraut, R. E. (2014) · Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems · doi:10.1145/2556288.2557094 · Cited by 250
Metadata
- Authors
- Keele, L., & Kelly, N. J.
- Venue
- Political Analysis
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2006
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 186-205
- ISSN
- 1047-1987 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4989
- OpenAlex
- W2106069978
- Cited by
- 926
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 34.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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