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Cited by 335

Earnings Dynamics, Changing Job Skills, and STEM Careers*

Deming, David J, Noray, Kadeem·2020·The Quarterly Journal of Economics
DOI 10.1093/qje/qjaa021
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Abstract

This article studies the impact of changing job skills on career earnings dynamics for college graduates. We measure changes in the skill content of occupations between 2007 and 2019 using detailed job descriptions from a near universe of online job postings. We then develop a simple model where the returns to work experience are a race between on-the-job learning and skill obsolescence. Obsolescence lowers the return to experience, flattening the age-earnings profile in faster-changing careers. We show that the earnings premium for college graduates majoring in technology-intensive subjects such as computer science, engineering, and business declines rapidly, and that these graduates sort out of faster-changing occupations as they gain experience.

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Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/qje/qjaa021

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6 of 6 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • Deming and Noray (2020) document changes in skill demands associated with broader IT-related activity.

    “To investigate whether AI exposure predicts skill demands in non-AI jobs, we build on work by Deming and Noray (2020) who document such changes associated with broader IT-related activity.”

    From Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies (2022) · cites this paper as Deming and Noray (2020)

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Authors
Deming, D. J., & Noray, K.
Affiliations
  • Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research
  • Harvard University
Venue
The Quarterly Journal of Economics
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2020-06-16
Volume
135
Issue
4
Pages
1965-2005
ISSN
  • 0033-5533
  • 1531-4650
DOI
10.1093/qje/qjaa021
Cited by
335
References
6
Language
en

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