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Cited by 541Criminal Justice and Corrections AnalysisCrime Patterns and InterventionsCriminal Justice and Penology

Juvenile incarceration, human capital, and future crime: Evidence from randomly assigned judges

Aizer, Anna, Doyle, Joseph J.·2015·The Quarterly Journal of Economics
DOI 10.1093/qje/qjv003
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Abstract

Over 130,000 juveniles are detained in the United States each year with 70,000 in detention on any given day, yet little is known about whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts social and human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior. This article uses the incarceration tendency of randomly assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism. Estimates based on over 35,000 juvenile offenders over a 10-year period from a large urban county in the United States suggest that juvenile incarceration results in substantially lower high school completion rates and higher adult incarceration rates, including for violent crimes. In an attempt to understand the large effects, we found that incarceration for this population could be very disruptive, greatly reducing the likelihood of ever returning to school and, for those who do return, significantly increasing the likelihood of being classified as having an emotional or behavioral disorder.

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  • Some find that lengthy prison sentences may deplete human capital and alter inmates' capacity to reintegrate into the labor market.

    “Some find that lengthy prison sentences may deplete human capital and alter inmates' capacity to reintegrate into the labor market (Lochner, 2004; Aizer and Doyle Jr, 2015; Mueller-Smith, 2015).”

    From Prison Rehabilitation Programs: Efficiency and Targeting (2021) · cites this paper as Aizer and Doyle Jr, 2015

    Section 2.1 proposes that juvenile incarceration can hinder human and social capital accumulation, including social capital that aids job search. The Introduction likewise says incarceration during adolescence may reduce future wages. But the paper does not establish that lengthy sentences cause these effects or measure released inmates’ ability to reintegrate into the labor market; its findings concern juvenile incarceration and high-school completion. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 33

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  9. Di Tella, Rafael and Ernesto Schargrodsky. forthcoming. "Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring" Journal of Political Economy
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Cited by

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Authors
Aizer, A., & Doyle, J. J.
Affiliations
National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
ORCID
Venue
The Quarterly Journal of Economics
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2015-02-02
Volume
130
Issue
2
Pages
759-803
ISSN
  • 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
  • 1531-4650
DOI
10.1093/qje/qjv003
OpenAlex
W2118051501
Cited by
541
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 34 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 57 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 69 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 39 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 1
FWCI
137.20
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
University of Chicago
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
Keywords
juvenile detention, recidivism, human capital, high school graduation, violent crime, emotional and behavioral disorders, crime deterrence, juvenile offenders

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