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Cited by 459

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 12 of the 12 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations

Open access
Gormsen, Niels Joachim, Koijen, Ralph S J·2020·The Review of Asset Pricing Studies
DOI 10.1093/rapstu/raaa013
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Abstract

We use data from aggregate stock and dividend futures markets to quantify how investors’ expectations about economic growth evolved across horizons following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and subsequent policy responses until July 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to dividends on the aggregate stock market in a particular year, can be used to directly compute a lower bound on growth expectations across maturities or to estimate expected growth using a forecasting model. We show how the actual forecast and the bound evolve over time. As of July 20th, our forecast of annual growth in dividends points to a decline of 8% in both the United States and Japan and a 14% decline in the European Union compared to January 1. Our forecast of GDP growth points to a decline of 2% in the United States and Japan and 3% in the European Union. The lower bound on the change in expected dividends is -17% in the United States and Japan and -28% in the European Union at the 2-year horizon. News about U.S. monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus bill around March 24 boosted the stock market and long-term growth but did little to increase short-term growth expectations. Expected dividend growth has improved since April 1 in all geographies.

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Metadata

Authors
Gormsen, N. J., & Koijen, R. S. J.
Venue
The Review of Asset Pricing Studies
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2020-09-11
Volume
10
Issue
4
Pages
574-597
ISSN
  • 2045-9920 (ISSN-L)
  • 2045-9939
DOI
10.1093/rapstu/raaa013
OpenAlex
W4253629159
Cited by
459
References
12
FWCI
69.81
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
bronze

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1093/rapstu/raaa013
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Gormsen, N. J., & Koijen, R. S. J. (2020). Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa013

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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