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The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?
Abstract
We study the effects of positive steady-state inflation in New Keynesian models subject to the zero bound on interest rates. We derive the utility-based welfare loss function taking into account the effects of positive steady-state inflation and solve for the optimal level of inflation in the model. For plausible calibrations with costly but infrequent episodes at the zero lower bound, the optimal inflation rate is low, typically <2% even after considering a variety of extensions, including optimal stabilization policy, price indexation, endogenous and state-dependent price stickiness, capital formation, model uncertainty, and downward nominal wage rigidities. On the normative side, price-level targeting delivers large welfare gains and a very low optimal inflation rate consistent with price stability. These results suggest that raising the inflation target is too blunt an instrument to efficiently reduce the severe costs of zero bound episodes.
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Cites
INTEREST AND PRICES: FOUNDATIONS OF A THEORY OF MONETARY POLICY
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When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?
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Cited by
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Kuester, K., & Rubio-Ramírez, J. (2015) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20121236 · Cited by 938
A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation
Eggertsson, G. B., Mehrotra, N. R., & Robbins, J. A. (2019) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.20170367 · Cited by 405
Bianchi, F., & Melosi, L. (2017) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20160186 · Cited by 220
Does U.S. monetary policy sway global crypto investment demand?
Hodula, M. (2025) · Finance Research Letters · doi:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107408 · Cited by 7
Metadata
- Authors
- Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Wieland, J.
- Venue
- The Review of Economic Studies
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2012-03-07
- Volume
- 79
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1371-1406
- ISSN
- 0034-6527 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-937X
- OpenAlex
- W2154801578
- Cited by
- 359
- References
- 50
- FWCI
- 53.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Wieland, J. (2012). The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound? The Review of Economic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rds013
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