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Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets

Bekaert, Geert, Harvey, Campbell R., Lundblad, Christian·2007·Review of Financial Studies

Abstract

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that it significantly predicts future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor, unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneous return shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividend yield. We consider a simple asset-pricing model with liquidity and the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction costs that are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiates between integrated and segmented countries and time periods. Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an important driver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that the liberalization process has not fully eliminated its impact.

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Metadata

Authors
Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., & Lundblad, C.
Venue
Review of Financial Studies
Published
2007-07-24
Volume
20
Issue
6
Pages
1783-1831
ISSN
  • 0893-9454 (ISSN-L)
  • 1465-7368
OpenAlex
W3121238223
Cited by
1,078
References
3
FWCI
69.67
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1093/rfs/hhm030
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Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., & Lundblad, C. (2007). Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets. Review of Financial Studies. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhm030

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.