The DOI matches its Crossref record; 45 of the 45 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Misvaluing Innovation
Open accessAbstract
We demonstrate that a firm’s ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in research and development (R&D) can have quite divergent, but predictably divergent, future paths. Our approach is based on the simple premise that while future outcomes associated with R&D investment are uncertain, the past track records of firms may give insight into their potential for future success. We show that a long-short portfolio strategy that takes advantage of the information in past track records earns abnormal returns of roughly 11 percent per year. Importantly, these past track records also predict divergent future real outcomes in patents, patent citations, and new product innovations.
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Cites
Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(93)90023-5 · Cited by 25,754
On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance
Carhart, M. M. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x · Cited by 17,283
The Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns
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Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests
Fama, E. F., & MacBeth, J. D. (1973) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260061 · Cited by 14,258
Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency
JEGADEESH, N., & TITMAN, S. (1993) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x · Cited by 11,584
The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems
JENSEN, M. C. (1993) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04022.x · Cited by 8,528
Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?
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FAMA, E. F., & FRENCH, K. R. (1996) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb05202.x · Cited by 6,700
The relationship between return and market value of common stocks
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Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions
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Cited by
… and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns
Harvey, C. R., Liu, Y., & Zhu, H. (2016) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhv059 · Cited by 2,119
Edmans, A. (2023) · Financial Management · doi:10.1111/fima.12413 · Cited by 531
Finance and Corporate Innovation: A Survey
He, J. (., & Tian, X. (2018) · Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies · doi:10.1111/ajfs.12208 · Cited by 282
Edmans, A. (2022) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4221990 · Cited by 15
Metadata
- Authors
- Cohen, L., Diether, K., & Malloy, C.
- Venue
- Review of Financial Studies
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2013-01-21
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 635-666
- ISSN
- 0893-9454 (ISSN-L)
- 1465-7368
- OpenAlex
- W4244304946
- Cited by
- 346
- References
- 45
- FWCI
- 26.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.