Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus : recent trends and future scenarios
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The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion.
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Regional climate model scenarios show that during the 1960-1980s southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Stegomyia albopicta.
“For example, regional climate model scenarios coupled with high-resolution observations shows that during the 1960–1980s southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the invasive Asian tiger mosquito, St. albopicta.”
From Vector-borne helminths of dogs and humans in Europe (2013) · cites this paper as [59]
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References 29 · Cited by 376
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- [18]Haylock M. R. Hofstra N. Klein Tank A. M. G. Klok E. J. Jones P. D. New M. 2008 A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres) 113, D20119 10.1029/2008JD10201 (doi:10.1029/2008JD10201) · DOI
- [24]Rodhain F. 1996 Problèmes posés par l'expansion d’Aedes albopictus. Bull. Soc. Pathol. Exot. 89, 137– 141 8924772
- Authors
- Caminade, C., Medlock, J. M., Ducheyne, E., McIntyre, K. M., Leach, S., Baylis, M., & Morse, A. P.
- Affiliations
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- Health Protection Agency (GB)
- Avia-GIS (Belgium) (BE)
- Corresponding author
- Caminade, Cyril
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2012-04-25
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 75
- Pages
- 2708-2717
- ISSN
- 1742-5662 (ISSN-L)
- 1742-5689
- PMC
- PMC3427500
- OpenAlex
- W2106326201
- Cited by
- 376
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 21 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 28 · 2015: 34 · 2014: 26 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 28.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute for Health and Care Research
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G002827/1)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- Aedes albopictus, invasive species, climate suitability, range shifts, climate change scenarios, regional climate model, dengue, chikungunya, vector-borne diseases, overwintering, Europe
- MeSH terms
- Aedes, Animals, Climate, Computer Simulation, Europe, Insect Vectors, Models, Biological, Models, Theoretical, Introduced Species
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