Cited by 1,862Climate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsClimate Change and Geoengineering

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The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections

Tebaldi, Claudia, Knutti, Reto·2007·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

DOI 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076

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Abstract

Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic way. This paper outlines the motivation for using multi-model ensembles, reviews the methodologies published so far and compares their results for regional temperature projections. The challenges in interpreting multi-model results, caused by the lack of verification of climate projections, the problem of model dependence, bias and tuning as well as the difficulty in making sense of an ‘ensemble of opportunity’, are discussed in detail.

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Authors: Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R.
Affiliations: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
ETH Zurich (CH)
ORCID: Tebaldi, Claudia
Knutti, Reto
Venue: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society
Published: 2007-06-14
Volume: 365
Issue: 1857
Pages: 2053-2075
ISSN: 1364-503X (ISSN-L)
1471-2962
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076
OpenAlex: W2100956194
Cited by: 1,862
References: 69
Citations by year: 2026: 124 · 2025: 115 · 2024: 112 · 2023: 110 · 2022: 132 · 2021: 117 · 2020: 122 · 2019: 121 · 2018: 107 · 2017: 111 · 2016: 116 · 2015: 112 · 2014: 102 · 2013: 82 · 2012: 65
FWCI: 35.13
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ (tdm)
Locations: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
Keywords: multi-model ensemble, probabilistic climate projections, uncertainty quantification, model dependence, model bias, model calibration, climate model intercomparison

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The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections

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