The DOI matches its Crossref record; 69 of the 69 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Abstract
Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic way. This paper outlines the motivation for using multi-model ensembles, reviews the methodologies published so far and compares their results for regional temperature projections. The challenges in interpreting multi-model results, caused by the lack of verification of climate projections, the problem of model dependence, bias and tuning as well as the difficulty in making sense of an ‘ensemble of opportunity’, are discussed in detail.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“The best climate predictions are synthesized from ensembles of 20+ climate models [782].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [782]
Citations
Cites
Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis
Berger, J. O. (1985) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-4286-2 · Cited by 7,722
Special report on emissions scenarios
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G. R., de Vries, B. J. M., Fenhann, J. V., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., et al. (2000) · Cited by 6,089
Evensen, G. (1994) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1029/94jc00572 · Cited by 5,371
The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation
Evensen, G. (2003) · Ocean Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9 · Cited by 4,606
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations.
Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M., & Stainforth, D. A. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02771 · Cited by 1,655
Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
Stainforth, D. A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M. D., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S. H. E., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., et al. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03301 · Cited by 1,167
Simulating Arctic Climate Warmth and Ice Field Retreat in the Last Interglaciation
Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Marshall, S. J., Overpeck, J. T., Miller, G. H., Hu, A., & CAPE Last Interglacial Project members (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1120808 · Cited by 936
AN AMS CONTINUING SERIES: GLOBAL CHANGE--AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
Gates, W. L. (1992) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · Cited by 744
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept
Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., & Palmer, T. N. (2005) · Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · doi:10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14657 · Cited by 710
Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R., & Delworth, T. L. (2000) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35036559 · Cited by 657
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Annan J.D, 2005, Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with paleoclimate simulations, Sci. Online Lett. Atmos, 1, 181
- IPCCp. 881 Eds. Houghton J.T Ding Y Griggs D.J Noguer M van der Linden P.J Xiaosu D Dai X Maskell K& Johnson C.A. 2001 Cambridge UK:Cambridge University Press.
- 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3834:IOTMST>2.0.CO;2 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
The art of modelling range-shifting species: The art of modelling range-shifting species
Elith, J., Kearney, M., & Phillips, S. (2010) · Methods in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1111/j.2041-210x.2010.00036.x · Cited by 2,813
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D. R., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J. P., Luo, Y., Marengo, J. A., McInnes, K. L., Rahimi, M., et al. (2012) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139177245.006 · Cited by 2,609
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
Deser, C., Phillips, A. S., Bourdette, V., & Teng, H. (2010) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x · Cited by 1,773
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
Knutti, R., & Sedláček, J. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1716 · Cited by 1,569
Self-citationRobust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture
Schlenker, W., & Lobell, D. B. (2010) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010 · Cited by 1,492
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change
Asseng, S., Ewert, F. A., Rosenzweig, C. E., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Rötter, R. P., Cammarano, D., et al. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1916 · Cited by 1,398
Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models.
Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., & Meehl, G. A. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli3361.1 · Cited by 1,270
Self-citationHigh Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6
Haarsma, R., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guémas, V., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016 · Cited by 1,229
Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
Friedlingstein, P., Meinshausen, M. A., Arora, V. K., JONES, C. D., Anav, A., Liddicoat, S. K., & Knutti, R. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00579.1 · Cited by 1,082
Self-citationGlobal river discharge and water temperature under climate change
van Vliet, M. T. H., Franssen, W., Yearsley, J. R., Ludwig, F., Haddeland, I., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Kabat, P. (2013) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002 · Cited by 1,045
On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change
Lobell, D. B., & Burke, M. (2010) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.07.008 · Cited by 1,040
Eutrophication will increase during the 21st century as a result of precipitation changes
Sinha, E., Michalak, A. M., & Balaji, V. (2017) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aan2409 · Cited by 1,060
Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa
Burke, M., Miguel, E. A., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., & Lobell, D. B. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0907998106 · Cited by 1,036
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects
Deser, C., Lehner, F., Rodgers, K. B., Ault, T. R., Delworth, T. L., DiNezio, P., Fiore, A. M., Frankignoul, C., Fyfe, J. C., Horton, D. E., et al. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2 · Cited by 973
Self-citationBending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Leclère, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S. H. M., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F. A. J., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J. C., Dürauer, M., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y · Cited by 922
Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there
Knutti, R., Masson, D., & Gettelman, A. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50256 · Cited by 918
Self-citationMeinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 · Cited by 876
Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates
Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. A., & Knutti, R. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1385 · Cited by 819
Self-citationThe European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges
Beniston, M., Farinotti, D., Stoffel, M., Andreassen, L. M., Coppola, E., Eckert, N., Fantini, A., Giacona, F., Hauck, C., Huss, M., et al. (2018) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-12-759-2018 · Cited by 827
Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models
Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C., Lehner, F., & Knutti, R. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549 · Cited by 749
Self-citationPartitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Lehner, F., Deser, C., Maher, N., Marotzke, J., Fischer, E. M., Brunner, L., Knutti, R., & Hawkins, E. (2020) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 · Cited by 734
Self-citationUsing weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change
Auffhammer, M., Hsiang, S. M., Schlenker, W., & Sobel, A. (2013) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1093/reep/ret016 · Cited by 662
The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning
Hourdin, F., Mauritsen, T., Gettelman, A., Golaz, J.-C., Balaji, V., Duan, Q., Folini, D., Ji, D., Klocke, D., Qian, Y., et al. (2017) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-15-00135.1 · Cited by 611
Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one
Martre, P., Wallach, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Jones, J. W., Rötter, R., Boote, K., Ruane, A., Thorburn, P., Cammarano, D., et al. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12768 · Cited by 511
An overview of methods to evaluate uncertainty of deterministic models in decision support
Uusitalo, L., Lehikoinen, A., Helle, I., & Myrberg, K. (2014) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.017 · Cited by 578
Knutti, R. (2010) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9800-2 · Cited by 505
Self-citationA climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence
Knutti, R., Sedláčék, J., Sanderson, B. M., Lorenz, R., Fischer, E. M., & Eyring, V. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl072012 · Cited by 524
Self-citationQuantification of model uncertainty in RANS simulations: A review
Xiao, H., & Cinnella, P. (2019) · Progress in Aerospace Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.paerosci.2018.10.001 · Cited by 467
Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe
Webber, H. A., Ewert, F. A., Olesen, J. E., Müller, C., Fronzek, S., Ruane, A. C., Bourgault, M., Martre, P., Ababaei, B., Bindi, M., et al. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2 · Cited by 438
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections
Cos, P., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Jury, M., Marcos-Matamoros, R., Bretonnière, P.-A., & Samsó, M. (2022) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-13-321-2022 · Cited by 421
The physics of climate variability and climate change
Ghil, M., & Lucarini, V. (2020) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.92.035002 · Cited by 444
A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble
Sanderson, B. M., Knutti, R., & Caldwell, P. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00362.1 · Cited by 411
Self-citationAssessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
Naylor, R. L., Battisti, D. S., Vimont, D. J., Falcon, W. P., & Burke, M. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0701825104 · Cited by 410
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, N., Bastin, S., Belda, M., Belušić, D., et al. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8 · Cited by 402
Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon
Duffy, P. B., Brando, P. M., Asner, G. P., & Field, C. B. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1421010112 · Cited by 396
Calculating Workplace WBGT from Meteorological Data: A Tool for Climate Change Assessment
LEMKE, B., & KJELLSTROM, T. (2012) · Industrial Health · doi:10.2486/indhealth.ms1352 · Cited by 394
Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption
Rode, A., Carleton, T. A., Delgado, M., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Hultgren, A., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., McCusker, K. E., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03883-8 · Cited by 406
Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections
Weigel, A. P., Knutti, R., Liniger, M. A., & Appenzeller, C. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3594.1 · Cited by 386
Self-citationReduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Brunner, L., Pendergrass, A. G., Lehner, F., Merrifield, A. L., Lorenz, R., & Knutti, R. (2020) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-11-995-2020 · Cited by 386
Self-citationBeck, H. E., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Miralles, D. G., de Jeu, R., Bruijnzeel, L. A., McVicar, T. R., & Schellekens, J. (2013) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2013wr013918 · Cited by 369
Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk
Ehsani, N., Vörösmarty, C. J., Fekete, B. M., & Stakhiv, E. Z. (2017) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.008 · Cited by 381
Global multi-model projections of local urban climates
Zhao, L., Oleson, K. W., Bou-Zeid, E. R., Krayenhoff, E. S., Bray, A. P., Zhu, Q., Zheng, Z., Chen, C., & Oppenheimer, M. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8 · Cited by 371
Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change
Xie, S., Deser, C., Vecchi, G. A., Collins, M. D., Delworth, T. L., Hall, A. D., Hawkins, E., Johnson, N. C., Cassou, C., Giannini, A., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2689 · Cited by 370
Masson, D., & Knutti, R. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl046864 · Cited by 365
Self-citationEnhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models
Capotondi, A. M., Alexander, M. A., Bond, N. A., Curchitser, E., & Scott, J. D. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jc007409 · Cited by 352
Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets
Burke, M., Davis, W. M., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9 · Cited by 377
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
Knutti, R., Rugenstein, M. A. A., & Hegerl, G. C. (2017) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo3017 · Cited by 364
Self-citationRegional climate change projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes
Hayhoe, K., VanDorn, J., Croley, T. E., Schlegal, N., & Wuebbles, D. J. (2010) · Journal of Great Lakes Research · doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2010.03.012 · Cited by 339
CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6
Stouffer, R. J., Eyring, V., Meehl, G. A., Bony, S., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., & Taylor, K. E. (2016) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-15-00013.1 · Cited by 347
Tackling climate change with machine learning
Rolnick, D., Donti, P. L., Kaack, L. H., Kochanski, K., Lacoste, A., Sankaran, K., Ross, A. S., Milojevic-Dupont, N., Jaques, N., Waldman-Brown, A., et al. (2023) · ACM Computing Surveys · doi:10.1145/3485128 · Cited by 336
Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget
Brown, P. T., & Caldeira, K. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature24672 · Cited by 334
Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information
Shepherd, T. G. (2019) · Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspa.2019.0013 · Cited by 331
Multi-site evaluation of terrestrial evaporation models using FLUXNET data
Ershadi, A., McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., Chaney, N. W., & Wood, E. F. (2014) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.11.008 · Cited by 328
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change
Ewert, F. A., Rötter, R. P., Bindi, M., Webber, H. A., Trnka, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Olesen, J. E., van Ittersum, M. K., Janssen, S. J. C., Rivington, M., et al. (2014) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003 · Cited by 334
Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit
Rogelj, J., Hare, B., Lowe, J. A., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Matthews, B., Hanaoka, T., Jiang, K., & Meinshausen, M. A. (2011) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1258 · Cited by 315
Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene
Wolkovich, E. M., Cook, B. I., McLauchlan, K. K., & Davies, T. J. (2014) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12353 · Cited by 325
Her, Y., Yoo, S., Cho, J., Hwang, S., Jeong, J., & Seong, C. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7 · Cited by 311
The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in northeast Australia
Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., Chenu, K., Zheng, B., McLean, G., & Chapman, S. C. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13022 · Cited by 310
Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change
Peng, R. D., Bobb, J. F., Tebaldi, C., McDaniel, L., Bell, M. L., & Dominici, F. (2010) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.1002430 · Cited by 318
Self-citationA Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions
Yip, S., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., & Hawkins, E. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2011jcli4085.1 · Cited by 306
Characterizing Uncertainty of the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change
Clark, M., Wilby, R. L., Gutmann, E. D., Vano, J. A., Gangopadhyay, S., Wood, A. W., Fowler, H. J., Prudhomme, C., Arnold, J. R., & Brekke, L. D. (2016) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0034-x · Cited by 308
Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models
Beck, H. E., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., de Roo, A. P. J., Dutra, E., Fink, G., Orth, R., & Schellekens, J. (2017) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-21-2881-2017 · Cited by 297
Tsujino, H., Urakawa, S., Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Adcroft, A., Amaral, A. E., Arsouze, T., Bentsen, M., Bernardello, R., Böning, C. W., et al. (2020) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020 · Cited by 282
Simulation of future climate scenarios with a weather generator
Fatichi, S., Ivanov, V. Y., & Caporali, E. (2011) · Advances in Water Resources · doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.12.013 · Cited by 281
Burke, M., Lobell, D. B., & Guarino, L. (2009) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003 · Cited by 281
Should we believe model predictions of future climate change?
Knutti, R. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0169 · Cited by 279
Self-citationAttribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C., Zwiers, F. W., & Gillett, N. P. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0412.1 · Cited by 286
Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation?
Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R. J., & Pielke, R. A. (2001) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511596667.006 · Cited by 277
Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations
Tebaldi, C., & Arblaster, J. M. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9 · Cited by 274
Self-citationHerman, J. D., Quinn, J. D., Steinschneider, S., Giuliani, M., & Fletcher, S. M. (2020) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr025502 · Cited by 279
Krueger, S. K., Fu, Q., Liou, K. N., & Chin, H.-N. S. (1995) · Journal of applied meteorology · doi:10.1175/1520-0450-34.1.281 · Cited by 262
Mapping model agreement on future climate projections
Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J. M., & Knutti, R. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl049863 · Cited by 259
Self-citationStructural uncertainty in air mass factor calculation for NO 2 and HCHO satellite retrievals
Lorente, A., Boersma, K. F., Yu, H., Dörner, S., Hilboll, A., Richter, A., Liu, M., Lamsal, L. N., Barkley, M. P., Smedt, I. D., et al. (2017) · Atmospheric measurement techniques · doi:10.5194/amt-10-759-2017 · Cited by 258
Design Criteria of Urban Drainage Infrastructures under Climate Change
Mailhot, A., & Duchesne, S. (2009) · Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management · doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000023 · Cited by 251
Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments
Sanderson, B. M., Wehner, M. F., & Knutti, R. (2017) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017 · Cited by 251
Self-citationRahman, M. H. U., Ahmad, A., Wang, X., Wajid, A., Nasim, W., Hussain, M., Ahmad, B., Ahmad, I., Ali, Z., Ishaque, W., et al. (2018) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.02.008 · Cited by 252
Uncertainty in regional climate modelling: A review
Foley, A. (2010) · Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment · doi:10.1177/0309133310375654 · Cited by 248
Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission
Ricke, K., & Caldeira, K. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002 · Cited by 254
Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions
Parker, W. S. (2013) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.220 · Cited by 250
Anache, J. A. A., Flanagan, D. C., Srivastava, A., & Wendland, E. C. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.257 · Cited by 252
Changes of heating and cooling degree‐days in Europe from 1981 to 2100
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J. V., Barbosa, P., Dosio, A., McCormick, N. L., Andrea Bigano, A., & Füssel, H. (2017) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5362 · Cited by 252
Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia
Miao, C., Duan, Q., Sun, Q., Huang, Y., Kong, D., Yang, T., Ye, A., Di, Z., & Gong, W. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/5/055007 · Cited by 243
On the Effective Number of Climate Models
Pennell, C., & Reichler, T. J. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3814.1 · Cited by 237
Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts
Burke, M., Dykema, J. A., Lobell, D. B., Miguel, E. A., & Satyanath, S. (2014) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00478 · Cited by 249
An appraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research
Ekström, M., Grose, M., & Whetton, P. H. (2015) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.339 · Cited by 242
Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over China under the SRES A1B Scenario Using 28 AOGCMs
Chen, W., Jiang, Z., & Li, L. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2011jcli4102.1 · Cited by 234
A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century
Knutti, R., Allen, M. R., Friedlingstein, P., Gregory, J. M., Hegerl, G. C., Meehl, G. A., Meinshausen, M. A., Murphy, J. M., Plattner, G., Raper, S. C. B., et al. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli2119.1 · Cited by 233
Self-citationCarvalho, D., Rocha, A. C., Gómez-Gesteira, M., & Santos, C. S. (2016) · Renewable Energy · doi:10.1016/j.renene.2016.08.036 · Cited by 243
Impacts of climate change on avian populations
Jenouvrier, S. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12195 · Cited by 249
Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs
van Hooidonk, R. J., Maynard, J. A., Manzello, D. P., & Planes, S. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12394 · Cited by 236
Multi‐model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes
Fowler, H. J., & Ekström, M. (2009) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1827 · Cited by 228
Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective
Brekke, L. D., Kiang, J. E., Olsen, J., Pulwarty, R. S., Raff, D. A., Turnipseed, D. P., Webb, R. S., & White, K. D. (2009) · U.S. Geological Survey circular/U.S. Geological Survey Circular · doi:10.3133/cir1331 · Cited by 226
Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models
Smith, R. L., Tebaldi, C., Nychka, D., & Mearns, L. O. (2009) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2009.0007 · Cited by 225
Self-citationAbramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., & Schmidt, G. (2019) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-10-91-2019 · Cited by 174
Self-citationClimate change impacts on extreme precipitation in Morocco
Tramblay, Y., Badi, W., Driouech, F., Adlouni, S. E., Neppel, L., & Servat, É. (2011) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.12.002 · Cited by 219
Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality
Murari, K. K., Ghosh, S., Patwardhan, A., Daly, E., & Salvi, K. (2015) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6 · Cited by 216
Regional Differences in the Influence of Irrigation on Climate
Lobell, D. B., Bala, G., Mirin, A. A., Phillips, T. J., Maxwell, R. M., & Rotman, D. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2008jcli2703.1 · Cited by 215
Spatial Analysis to Quantify Numerical Model Bias and Dependence: How Many Climate Models Are There?
Jun, M., Knutti, R., & Nychka, D. W. (2008) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/016214507000001265 · Cited by 214
Self-citationReview of approaches for selection and ensembling of GCMs
Raju, K. S., & Kumar, D. N. (2020) · Journal of Water and Climate Change · doi:10.2166/wcc.2020.128 · Cited by 215
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
Montaño, J., Coco, G., Antolínez, J. A. Á., Beuzen, T., Bryan, K. R., Cagigal, L., Castelle, B., Davidson, M., Goldstein, E. B., Ibaceta, R., et al. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-59018-y · Cited by 208
Metadata
- Authors
- Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Venue
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
- Publisher
- The Royal Society
- Published
- 2007-06-14
- Volume
- 365
- Issue
- 1857
- Pages
- 2053-2075
- ISSN
- 1364-503X (ISSN-L)
- 1471-2962
- OpenAlex
- W2100956194
- Cited by
- 1,862
- References
- 69
- Citations by year
- 2026: 124 · 2025: 115 · 2024: 112 · 2023: 110 · 2022: 132 · 2021: 117 · 2020: 122 · 2019: 121 · 2018: 107 · 2017: 111 · 2016: 116 · 2015: 112 · 2014: 102 · 2013: 82 · 2012: 65
- FWCI
- 35.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- multi-model ensemble, probabilistic climate projections, uncertainty quantification, model dependence, model bias, model calibration, climate model intercomparison
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
