Cited by 1,084Climate Change and Environmental ImpactEcology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesLand Use and Ecosystem Services

Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions

Open access
Malhi, Yadvinder, Franklin, Janet, Seddon, Nathalie, Solan, Martin, Turner, Monica G., Field, Christopher B., Knowlton, Nancy·2020·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Abstract

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1098/rstb.2019.0104

Cites

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Reestablishing microbial communities following perturbations is a crucial component of the many processes that change how ecosystems work in response to disturbances caused by changing climate conditions and more people doing more activities.

    “Reestablishing microbial communities following perturbations is a crucial component of the many processes that change how ecosystems work in response to disturbances caused by changing climate conditions and more people doing more activities [222].”

    From Harnessing bacterial consortia for effective bioremediation: targeted removal of heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and persistent pollutants (2025) · cites this paper as [222]

    Theme 1 says soil microbial communities are critical to biogeochemical cycling and describes how bacterial and fungal food webs help ecosystems recover from perturbations. The paper also discusses climate change and human disturbances, but it does not establish that reestablishing microbial communities is crucial across the many ecosystem-changing processes attributed to both drivers. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Synthetic consortia may struggle to establish themselves in native microbial ecosystems, where competition with indigenous microbes can limit their survival and efficiency.

    “synthetic consortia may struggle to establish themselves in native microbial ecosystems, where competition with indigenous microbes can limit their survival and efficiency [168,222].”

    From Harnessing bacterial consortia for effective bioremediation: targeted removal of heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and persistent pollutants (2025) · cites this paper as [222]

    The discussion of soil microbial communities in Theme 1 concerns their resilience to climate extremes, not the establishment of synthetic consortia. Searches for synthetic consortia and for competition with resident microbes found no passage addressing their survival or efficiency. (LLM, conf=0.74)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 27

  1. [2]2. Lenton TM, Rockström J, Gaffney O, Rahmstorf S, Richardson K, Steffen W, Schellnhuber HJ. 2019 Climate tipping points -too risky to bet against. Nature 575 , 592 -595. (doi:10.1038/d41586-01903595-0) · DOI
  2. [3]3. Nicholls RJ et al. 2018 Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5 C and 2.0 C: implications for coastal areas. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 376 , 20160448. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0448) · DOI
  3. [4]4. National Academy of Sciences. 2019 Climate change and ecosystems . Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. See https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ srccl/.
  4. [5]5. Bennett EM et al. 2016 Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene. Front. Ecol. Environ. 14 , 441 -448. (doi:10.1002/fee.1309) · DOI
  5. [6]6. Turner MG et al. 2020 Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities. Phil. in both of these scenarios. Extensive and connected ecosystems, species and genetic diversity, trophic intactness and habitat heterogeneity, can buffer the impacts of climate change. NbS, such as ecosystem management and restoration, can play an important role in climate change mitigation and societal adaptation, but will only provide benefits if deployed in conjunction with a reduction in fossil fuel emissions. At some point this century, as human civilization faces the decarbonization challenge, global atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are likely to stabilize, and global temperatures will peak. Judicious protection and restoration of ecosystems could have played a significant role in that stabilization, and could continue to play a role in the subsequent cool-down. The climate change that will already have occurred will inevitably have led to some ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss. But in a world where NbS have been implemented at scale, ecosystems that are intact, extensive and connected have a much better chance of adapting and thriving in this new climate regime, and thereby of contributing to a vibrant and resilient biosphere that is needed for its own sake and for providing the fabric within which human societies exist and thrive. Data accessibility. This article has no additional data. Authors ' contributions. All authors contributed to the editing of the accompanying thematic issue and contributed to this manuscript. Competing interests. We declare we have no competing interests. Funding. The National Acadamy of Sciences -Royal Society Forum that resulted in this thematic issue was supported by the Sackler Foundation. - Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190105. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2019.0105) · DOI
  6. [7]7. Bardgett RD, Caruso T. 2020 Soil microbial community responses to climate extremes: resistance, resilience and transitions to alternative states. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190112. (doi:10. 1098/rstb.2019.0112)
  7. [8]8. Iglesias V, Whitlock C. 2020 If the trees burn, is the forest lost? Past dynamics in temperate forests help inform management strategies. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190115. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0115) · DOI
  8. [9]9. Molotoks A, Henry R, Stehfest E, Doelman J, Havlik P, Krisztin T, Alexander P, Dawson TP, Smith P. 2020 Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190189. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0189) · DOI
  9. [10]10. Harrison S. 2020 Plant community diversity will decline more than increase under climatic warming. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190106. (doi:10.1098/ rstb.2019.0106)
  10. [11]11. Thomas CD. 2020 The development of Anthropocene biotas. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190113. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0113) · DOI
  11. [12]12. França FM et al. 2020 Climatic and local stressor interactions threaten tropical forests and coral reefs. - Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190116. (doi:10.1098/ rstb.2019.0116)
  12. [13]13. Solan M, Bennett EM, Mumby PJ, Leyland J, Godbold JA. 2020 Benthic-based contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190107. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2019.0107) · DOI
  13. [14]14. Roberts CM, O ' Leary BC, Hawkins JP. 2020 Climate change mitigation and nature conservation both require higher protected area targets. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190121. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0121) · DOI
  14. [15]15. Lawler JJ, Rinnan DS, Michalak JL, Withey JC, Randels CR, Possingham HP. 2020 Planning for climate change through additions to a national protected area network: implications for cost and configuration. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190117. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0117) · DOI
  15. [16]16. Griscom BW et al. 2017 Natural climate solutions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114 , 11 645 -11 650. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1710465114) · DOI · Paper page
  16. [17]17. Seddon N, Chausson A, Berry P, Girardin CAJ, Smith A, Turner B. 2020 Understanding the value and limits of nature-based solutions to climate change and other global challenges. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190120. (doi:10.1098/ rstb.2019.0120)
  17. [18]18. Lavorel S, Locatelli B, Colloff MJ, Bruley E. 2020 Co-producing ecosystem services for adapting to climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190119. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0119) · DOI
  18. [19]19. Soto-Navarro C et al. 2020 Mapping co-benefits for carbon storage and biodiversity to inform conservation policy and action. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190128. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0128) · DOI
  19. [20]20. Griscom BW et al. 2020 National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190126. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0126) · DOI
  20. [21]21. Hobbie SE, Grimm NB. 2020 Nature-based approaches to managing climate change impacts in cities. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190124. (doi:10. 1098/rstb.2019.0124)
  21. [6]6. Trophic rewilding presents regionally specific opportunities for mitigating climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190125. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2019.0125) · DOI
  22. [23]23. Macias-Fauria M, Jepson P, Zimov N, Malhi Y. 2020 Pleistocene Arctic megafaunal ecological engineering as a natural climate solution? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190122. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0122) · DOI
  23. [24]24. Norton A, Seddon N, Agrawal A, Shakya C, Kaur N, Porras I. 2020 Harnessing employment-based social assistance programmes to scale up nature-based climate action. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190127. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0127) · DOI
  24. [25]25. Lenton TM. 2020 Tipping positive change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 375 , 20190123. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2019.0123) · DOI
  25. [11]11. land-based mitigation. Nat. Commun. 10 , 5240. (doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13241-y) · DOI
  26. [28]28. Platts PJ, Mason SC, Palmer G, Hill JK, Oliver TH, Powney GD, Fox R, Thomas CD. 2019 Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups. Sci. Rep. 9 , 15039. (doi:10.1038/s41598-019-51582-2) · DOI
  27. [30]30. Seddon N, Turner B, Berry P, Chausson A, Girardin CA. 2019 Grounding nature-based climate solutions in sound biodiversity science. Nat. Clim. Change 9 , 84 -87. (doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0405-0) · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Malhi, Y., Franklin, J., Seddon, N., Solan, M., Turner, M. G., Field, C. B., & Knowlton, N.
Affiliations
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • University of California, Riverside (US)
  • Nature-based Solutions Initiative, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
  • National Oceanography Centre (GB)
  • University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
  • Stanford University (US)
  • National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian, MRC 163, PO Box 37012, Washington, DC 20013-7012, USA
Corresponding author
Malhi, Yadvinder
Venue
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Published
2020-01-27
Volume
375
Issue
1794
Pages
20190104
ISSN
  • 0962-8436 (ISSN-L)
  • 1471-2970
OpenAlex
W3001949784
Cited by
1,084
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 193 · 2025: 277 · 2024: 229 · 2023: 169 · 2022: 123 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 14
FWCI
34.69
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R002649/1, NE/P001092/1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
Keywords
climate change impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem resilience, climate variability, ocean acidification, atmospheric CO2, ecosystem degradation, defaunation, habitat fragmentation, natural climate solutions, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, ecosystem functioning, biodiversity conservation
MeSH terms
Conservation of Natural Resources, Ecosystem, Climate Change

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review