Excess COVID-19-associated deaths among the unvaccinated population ≥18 years old in the United States, May 30 – December 4, 2021

Abstract

Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 were authorized at the end of 2020 and are effective in preventing deaths; however, many persons remain unvaccinated. Using weekly publicly available CDC data of COVID-19-associated death rates by age and vaccination status from 26 US jurisdictions, we estimated the number of excess deaths that might have been averted by vaccination among unvaccinated persons ≥ 18 years old from May 30 to December 4, 2021. We subtracted the death rate in the vaccinated from rates in the unvaccinated to estimate the death rate each week that could be attributable to non-vaccination and multiplied this rate difference by the number of people in the unvaccinated group for each age group and each week, to estimate the excess mortality among the unvaccinated. Then, we extrapolated the number of deaths due to non-vaccination in the 26 jurisdictions to the whole US population using 2020 census estimates. In the 26 participating jurisdictions there were an estimated 83,400 excess deaths among the unvaccinated from May 30 to December 4, 2021. The largest number of excess deaths occurred in those 65–79 years old (n=28,900; 34.7% of total), followed by those 50-64 years old (n=25,900; 31.1%). Extrapolated to the US population we estimated approximately 135,000 excess deaths during the study period in persons ≥18 years old. Our estimates are an underestimate of all excess deaths that have occurred since vaccine became available because our analysis period was limited to May 30 to December 4, 2021, and many excess deaths occurred before and after this period. In summary, we used retrospective data to estimate the substantial number of COVID-19-associated deaths among the unvaccinated illustrating the importance of vaccination to prevent further unnecessary mortality during this pandemic.