The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic

In many societies, prosociality was at a low level during the past two years.

“Prosociality was at a low ebb in many societies during the past 2 years.”

Public policies did not sufficiently use behavioural and social science insights.

“Public policies have also failed to draw upon the behavioural and social sciences”

Substantial public opposition to routine measures such as wearing well-fitting masks and vaccination seriously impeded epidemic control.

“Epidemic control was seriously hindered by substantial public opposition to routine public health and social measures, such as the wearing of properly fitting face masks and getting vaccinated.”

A major obstacle to testing and quarantining for COVID-19 was the high share of asymptomatic infections, particularly among young people.

“A major challenge to the test and quarantine approach for COVID-19 was the high proportion of asymptomatic infections, especially in young people.”

Government coordination on pandemic containment policies-such as travel protocols, testing, public health measures, supply chains, data standards, and public advice-was inadequate, even though countries were highly interdependent.

“Coordination among governments was inadequate on policies to contain the pandemic, including travel protocols to slow the global transmission of the virus, testing strategies, public health and social measures, commodity supply chains, data standards and reporting systems, and advice to the public, despite the very high interdependence among countries.”

During the uncontrolled first wave in Wuhan, the basic reproduction number R0 was approximately 2.4.

“In the uncontrolled first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, R 0 was around 2·4.20”

• cites [20] The Royal Society Reproduction number (R) and growth rate (r) of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK: methods of estimation, data sources, causes of heterogeneity, and use as a guide in policy formulation https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-covid-19-R-estimates.pdf Sept 9, 2020 (preprint).Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Governments' failure to coordinate multilaterally on intellectual property, technology transfer, financing, vaccine allocation, and support for LMIC vaccine production has caused great inequity in vaccine access.

“However, the lack of a multilateral and coordinated approach by governments to manage intellectual property rights, technology transfer, international financing, the allocation of vaccines from multinational pharmaceutical companies, and the support for vaccine production in LMICs for use in those countries, has come at a great cost in terms of inequitable access to vaccines.”

Where social trust is low, many groups in society reject prosocial behaviours.

“In places of low social trust, prosocial behaviours are rejected by many groups within society.”

High-income countries with strong, resilient national health systems, including public health systems that complement clinical care, generally coped better with COVID-19 and maintained non-pandemic health services.

“Among high-income countries, those with strong and resilient national health systems—including public health systems that complement clinical health care—have generally fared better at addressing COVID-19 and maintaining non-pandemic-related health services.”

When the outbreak became globally known in early January 2020, most governments delayed acknowledging its significance and responding with urgency.

“As the outbreak became known globally in early January, 2020, most governments around the world were too slow to acknowledge its importance and act with urgency in response.”

In many instances, policy and decision making lacked robust, continuously updated evidence syntheses.

“In many cases, policies and decision making have not been informed by robust and continuously updated evidence syntheses.”

Global cooperation among governments was undermined by hostility among major powers.

“At the global level, cooperation among governments was undermined by rancour among the major powers.”

In low-income and middle-income countries with under-resourced, fragmented health systems, better outcomes occurred when prior outbreak experience was used and community-based resources such as community health workers supported screening, contact tracing, and trust-building.

“In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where health systems tend to be under-resourced and fragmented, better outcomes were seen when previous experiences with outbreaks and epidemics were built upon, and when community-based resources—notably community health workers—were used to support screening and contact-tracing capacity and trust-building within communities.”

The exact origin of SARS-CoV-2 has not been determined.

“The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown.”

Public policies failed to adequately address the pandemic's deeply unequal effects.

“Public policies did not properly address the profoundly unequal effects of the pandemic.”

Some Western Pacific countries that used containment in the first two years of the pandemic later abandoned it during the omicron wave, once a sufficiently high share of their populations had been vaccinated.

“Some countries in the WHO Western Pacific region that adopted a containment strategy during the first 2 years of the pandemic later abandoned the strategy during the period in which the omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was dominant (known as the omicron wave), after a sufficiently high proportion of the population had been vaccinated.”

Implementing public health and social measures early-such as closing businesses and venues, banning public events, running public information campaigns, and requiring masks-keeps cumulative cases and deaths lower than delaying them.

“Early implementation of public health and social measures—including closing businesses and venues, banning public events, launching public information campaigns, and requiring the use of face masks—is more effective at keeping cumulative cases and deaths low than implementation at a later stage.27”

• cites [27] Mendez-Brito A El Bcheraoui C Pozo-Martin F Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 J Infect 83 2021 281 293 34161818 PMC8214911 sourceNot checked yet

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On Dec 20, 2019, clinicians in Wuhan noted a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases.

“On Dec 20, 2019, a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases was noted by clinicians in Wuhan.”

At regional and international levels, a supported, well coordinated, collaborative multilateral system that enables transparent cooperation is related to prosocial decision making.

“At the regional and international levels, a supported, well coordinated, and collaborative multilateral system that facilitates transparent cooperation among scientific and academic organisations, regional and national leadership, and international financial institutions is related to prosocial decision making.”

• cites figure 1Not checked yet

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The proximal origins of SARS-CoV-2 are still unknown.

“The proximal origins of SARS-CoV-2 are still not known.”

Higher trust in institutions and among people, together with strong social cohesion, is linked to more prosocial health actions such as mask wearing, physical distancing, and vaccination.

“As detailed in figure 1 , at the individual level, trust in institutions and between individuals, and high social cohesion have been related to increased prosocial health behaviours, such as the wearing of face masks, physical distancing, and getting vaccinated.”

• cites figure 1Not checked yet

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More than two years into the pandemic, the search for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 remains incomplete and inconclusive.

“More than 2 years into the pandemic, the search for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 remains incomplete and inconclusive.46, 47”

• cites [46] National Intelligence Council Updated assessment on COVID-19 origins https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf Oct 29, 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [47] WHO WHO-convened global study of origins of SARS-CoV-2: China part https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/who-convened-global-study-of-origins-of-sars-cov-2-china-part March 30, 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

WHO first acknowledged the possibility of limited human-to-human transmission on Jan 14, 2020, two weeks after the initial notification from Chinese authorities.

“WHO first acknowledged the possibility of limited human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 on Jan 14, 2020, 2 weeks after the initial notification of the novel coronavirus from Chinese authorities.”

The outbreak first came to international attention on Dec 31, 2019, when the WHO Country Office in China noted an online report of a Wuhan-based pneumonia outbreak of unknown cause.

“The outbreak first came to international attention on Dec 31, 2019, when the WHO Country Office in China noted an online report of a Wuhan-based outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause.75”

• cites [75] WHO COVID-19—China https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2020-DON229 Jan 5, 2020Not checked yet

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Acting under the IHR (2005), WHO repeatedly erred on the side of reserve rather than boldness during the COVID-19 outbreak.

“In the swirl of uncertainty during the COVID-19 outbreak, WHO—acting under the IHR (2005)—repeatedly erred on the side of reserve rather than boldness.”

On Jan 22, 2020, the WHO Director-General convened a closed-door meeting of virologists, public health researchers, and some government representatives, as the IHR (2005) process dictates.

“On Jan 22, 2020, the WHO Director-General convened a closed-door meeting of virologists, public health researchers, and some government representatives, as the IHR (2005) process dictates.95”

• cites [95] Maxmen A Why did the world's pandemic warning system fail when COVID hit? Nature 589 2021 499 500 33500574 sourceNot checked yet

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There is currently no evidence that the Chinese central government in Beijing knew of the Wuhan outbreak until late December 2019.

“There is currently no evidence that the Chinese central government in Beijing knew of the outbreak in Wuhan until late December, 2019.74”

• cites [74] Buckley C Kirkpatrick DD Qin A Hernández JC 25 days that changed the world: how COVID-19 slipped China's grasp. The New York Times, Dec 30, 2020; updated Nov 31, 2021 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/world/asia/china-coronavirus.htmlNot checked yet

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Laboratory notebooks, databases, email records, and samples from institutions involved in such research have not been made available to independent researchers.

“The laboratory notebooks, databases, email records, and samples of institutions involved in such research have not been made available to independent researchers.”

These measures failed to ensure a sufficiently robust global response to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.

“Nonetheless, these measures failed to ensure a sufficiently robust global response to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.”

Whether identifiable COVID-19 cases appeared earlier than December 2019 is unknown.

“Whether identifiable cases appeared earlier than December, 2019, is unknown.68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73”

• cites [68] Amendola A Bianchi S Gori M Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in an oropharyngeal swab specimen, Milan, Italy, early December 2019 Emerg Infect Dis 27 2021 648 650 33292923 PMC7853584 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [69] Apolone G Montomoli E Manenti A Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy Tumori 107 2021 446 451 33176598 PMC8529295 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [70] Basavaraju SV Patton ME Grimm K Serologic testing of US blood donations to identify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-reactive antibodies: December 2019–January 2020 Clin Infect Dis 72 2021 e1004 e1009 33252659 PMC7799215 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [71] Carrat F Figoni J Henny J Evidence of early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in France: findings from the population-based “CONSTANCES” cohort Eur J Epidemiol 36 2021 219 222 33548003 PMC7864798 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [72] Gianotti R Barberis M Fellegara G Galván-Casas C Gianotti E COVID-19-related dermatosis in November 2019: could this case be Italy's patient zero? Br J Dermatol 184 2021 970 971 33410129 PMC9619443 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [73] Gragnani L Monti M Santini SA SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in Italy, in early December 2019 Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci 25 2021 3342 3349 33928622 sourceNot checked yet

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No independent, transparent, science-based investigation has been carried out into the bioengineering of SARS-like viruses that was underway before COVID-19.

“No independent, transparent, and science-based investigation has been carried out regarding the bioengineering of SARS-like viruses that was underway before the outbreak of COVID-19.”

Many gaps remain in knowledge about the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak.

“There are still many gaps in our knowledge.”

There is currently no global system for monitoring and regulating gain-of-function research of concern.

“There is currently no system for the global monitoring and regulation of gain-of-function research of concern.”

By the Jan 23, 2020 lockdown in Wuhan, infectious individuals had already dispersed to many other parts of the world.

“By the time of the Jan 23, 2020 lockdown in Wuhan, infectious individuals had already dispersed to many other parts of the world.101”

• cites [101] Wells CR Sah P Moghadas SM Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 117 2020 7504 7509 32170017 PMC7132249 sourceNot checked yet

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Even then, WHO continued to caution that there was a lack of evidence that wearing face masks could prevent COVID-19 spread.

“Even then, WHO continued to caution of a lack of evidence that wearing face masks could prevent the spread of COVID-19.”

These delayed and vague WHO recommendations continued until late April 2021.

“These delayed and vague recommendations from WHO continued until late April, 2021.”

Early in the outbreak, health authorities focused almost exclusively on spray transmission, leading to emphasis on 1-2 m distancing, cleaning and disinfecting surfaces, and handwashing.

“Early in the outbreak, health authorities concentrated almost exclusively on spray transmission, leading to the emphasis on 1–2 m of physical distancing, extensive and frequent cleaning and disinfection of shared surfaces, and handwashing.”

A 2022 study found no evidence that border closures reduced the spread of COVID-19.

“However, a 2022 study found no evidence that border closures reduced the spread of COVID-19.110”

• cites [110] Shiraef MA Friesen P Feddern L Did border closures slow SARS-CoV-2? Sci Rep 12 2022 1709 PMC8807811 35105912 sourceNot checked yet

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Until that point, WHO advised that face masks should be used only in medical settings and by people with COVID-19 symptoms.

“Until that point, WHO had advised that face masks should be used only in medical settings and by people who had symptoms of COVID-19.113, 114, 115”

• cites [113] WHO Advice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19, interim report https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331693 6 April 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [114] Czypionka T Greenhalgh T Bassler D Bryant MB Masks and face coverings for the lay public: a narrative update Ann Intern Med 174 2021 511 520 33370173 PMC7774036 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [115] Chu DK Akl EA Duda S Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis Lancet 395 2020 1973 1987 32497510 PMC7263814 sourceNot checked yet

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Only in July 2021 did WHO move towards a risk-based approach to international travel measures, recommending layers of containment including contact tracing, symptom screening, diagnostic tests, face masks, and enhanced hygiene.

“Only in July, 2021, did WHO evolve towards a risk-based approach to international travel measures, which recommends the use of layers of containment that include contact tracing, screening for symptoms, diagnostic tests, use of face marks, and enhanced hygiene measures.”

A third consequential delay was WHO's hesitation to recommend a more precautionary approach to travel from China.

“A third consequential delay was the hesitation by WHO to recommend a more precautionary approach to travel from China.99”

• cites [99] Nebehay S WHO chief says widespread travel bans not needed to beat China virus Feb 3, 2020 Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1ZX1H3Not checked yet

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Laboratory, field, modelling, and case studies have shown that airborne transmission through inhalation of virus-laden aerosol is important, if not dominant, for COVID-19.

“Laboratory, field, modelling, and case studies have shown that airborne transmission through the inhalation of a virus-laden aerosol is important, if not dominant, for COVID-19.119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132”

• cites [119] Ma J Qi X Chen H COVID-19 patients in earlier stages exhaled millions of SARS-CoV-2 per hour Clin Infect Dis 72 2020 e652 e654 PMC7499537 32857833 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [120] Adenaiye OO Lai J Bueno de Mesquita PJ Infectious severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in exhaled aerosols and efficacy of masks during early mild infection Clin Infect Dis 2021 ciab797 PMC8522431 34519774 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [121] Lednicky JA Lauzardo M Fan ZH Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients Int J Infect Dis 100 2020 476 482 32949774 PMC7493737Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [122] Santarpia JL Herrera VL Rivera DN The size and culturability of patient-generated SARS-CoV-2 aerosol J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 2021 2021 1 6 PMC8372686 34408261 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [123] Port JR Yinda CK Avanzato VA Increased aerosol transmission for B.1.1.7 (alpha variant) over lineage A variant of SARS-CoV-2 BioRxiv 2021 published online July 26. 10.1101/2021.07.26.453518 (preprint). sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [124] Kutter JS de Meulder D Bestebroer TM SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are transmitted through the air between ferrets over more than one meter distance Nat Commun 12 2021 1653 PMC7955093 33712573 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [125] Miller SL Nazaroff WW Jimenez JL Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by inhalation of respiratory aerosol in the Skagit Valley Chorale superspreading event Indoor Air 31 2021 314 323 32979298 PMC7537089 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [126] Buonanno G Morawska L Stabile L Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: prospective and retrospective applications Environ Int 145 2020 106112 PMC7474922 32927282 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [127] Azimi P Keshavarz Z Cedeno Laurent JG Stephens B Allen JG Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 118 2021 e2015482118 PMC7923347 33536312 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [128] Lendacki FR Teran RA Gretsch S Fricchione MJ Kerins JL COVID-19 outbreak among attendees of an exercise facility—Chicago, Illinois, August–September 2020 MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 70 2021 321 325 33661859 PMC7948936 sourceNot checked yet

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Even after an open letter from 238 scientists in July 2020 asking WHO to address airborne transmission, WHO did not change its stance until April 30, 2021.

“One stark example is that even after receiving an open letter from 238 scientists in July, 2020, asking the organisation to address the airborne transmission of COVID-19, WHO did not change its stance on this issue until April 30, 2021.116”

• cites [116] Chamary J WHO finally admits coronavirus is airborne. It's too late May 4, 2021 Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/2021/05/04/who-coronavirus-airborne/?sh=2a33b43a4472Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

One failure of international cooperation was the lack of timely notification of the initial COVID-19 outbreak.

“The multiple failures of international cooperation include (1) the lack of timely notification of the initial outbreak of COVID-19;”

Major differences in COVID-19 mortality are seen between WHO regions.

“Major differences in COVID-19 mortality are seen between WHO regions”

• cites [146] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections May 31, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

No countries in the Americas pursued a suppression strategy.

“No countries in the Americas pursued a suppression strategy.”

Only the Western Pacific region held the rate of new infections per day to very low levels.

“Only the Western Pacific region held the rate of new infections per day to very low levels.”

• cites [146] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections May 31, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Most of the countries of the Western Pacific region relaxed their suppression strategies in early 2022, reverting to a more limited mitigation strategy.

“most of the countries of the Western Pacific region relaxed their suppression strategies in early 2022, reverting to a more limited mitigation strategy.”

One failure was the inability or unwillingness to combat systematic disinformation.

“(9) the inability or unwillingness to combat systematic disinformation;”

One failure was the lack of coordination among countries regarding containment strategies.

“(3) the lack of coordination among countries regarding containment strategies;”

Cumulative deaths per 100,000 population as of May, 2022, in the Western Pacific region were far lower than in any other region of the world.

“cumulative deaths per 100 000 population as of May, 2022, in the Western Pacific region were far lower than in any other region of the world.”

One failure was the inability to ensure adequate global supplies and equitable distribution of key commodities, including protective gear, diagnostics, medicines, medical devices, and vaccines, especially for LMICs.

“(6) the failure to ensure adequate global supplies and equitable distribution of key commodities, including protective gear, diagnostics, medicines, medical devices, and vaccines, especially for LMICs;”

The WHO European region had an estimated total death rate of 4144 per million.

“The remaining two WHO regions have the highest estimated total death rates: 4144 per million population for the European region”

• cites [146] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections May 31, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

One failure was the lack of timely, accurate, and systematic data on infections, deaths, variants, and health system responses.

“(7) the lack of timely, accurate, and systematic data on infections, deaths, variants, and health system responses;”

The other WHO regions all experienced several waves.

“The other regions all experienced several waves”

• cites [146] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections May 31, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

One failure was the shortfall of global funding for low-income and middle-income countries.

“(5) the shortfall of global funding for LMICs;”

One failure was the lack of global and national safety nets to protect populations experiencing vulnerability.

“(10) the lack of global and national safety nets to protect populations experiencing vulnerability.”

None of the other WHO regions used the phases in which infection rates were low to move to a suppression strategy.

“none used the phases in which infection rates were low to move to a suppression strategy”

• cites [146] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 projections https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections May 31, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

One failure was costly delay in acknowledging the airborne exposure pathway of SARS-CoV-2 and in implementing appropriate national and global measures to slow spread.

“(2) costly delays in acknowledging the crucial airborne exposure pathway of SARS-CoV-2 and in implementing appropriate measures at the national and global levels to slow the spread of the virus;”

One failure was governments' failure to examine and adopt the best evidence from other countries for controlling the pandemic and managing economic and social repercussions.

“(4) the failure of governments to examine and adopt best evidence for controlling the pandemic and managing economic and social repercussions from other countries;”

Greater trust in government regarding COVID-19 control was cultivated when governments were perceived as well organised, fair, and clear in messaging.

“greater trust in government regarding COVID-19 control was cultivated for governments that were perceived as well organised, fair, and to be disseminating clear messages and knowledge on COVID-19.”

• cites [255] Han Q Zheng B Cristea M Trust in government regarding COVID-19 and its associations with preventive health behaviour and prosocial behaviour during the pandemic: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study Psychol Med 2021 published March 26. 10.1017/S0033291721001306 PMC8144822 33769242Not checked yet

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Public attitudes towards the pandemic differed markedly around the world.

“Public attitudes towards the pandemic differed markedly around the world.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Public attitudes are shaped by various factors including national culture, education, peer groups, social media, and leaders' actions and statements.

In March, 2022, governments around the world removed many of the remaining public health and social measures regarding face masks, indoor gatherings, large events, physical distancing, and testing, especially in countries with high vaccination rates.

“In March, 2022, governments around the world removed many of the remaining public health and social measures regarding face masks, indoor gatherings, large events, physical distancing, and testing, especially in countries with high vaccination rates.”

A rather small group of governments, many led by women, kept death rates much lower than in other countries.

“A rather small group of governments, many led by women, kept death rates much lower than in other countries.”

More than 43% of the most-viewed YouTube videos about COVID-19 in 2020 contained misleading information.

“more than 43% of these videos contained misleading information.”

• cites [243] Li HOY Bailey A Huynh D Chan J YouTube as a source of information on COVID-19: a pandemic of misinformation? BMJ Glob Health 5 2020 e002604 PMC7228483 32409327Not checked yet

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The Western Pacific region-including Australia, China, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan, Province of China-was largely successful at maintaining relatively low death rates.

“The Western Pacific region—including Australia, China, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan, Province of China—was largely successful at maintaining relatively low death rates.”

• cites [226] The Lancet Infectious Diseases. The COVID-19 infodemic Lancet Infect Dis 20 2020 875 32687807 PMC7367666Not checked yet

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Between 100,000 and 200,000 Americans died because they refused COVID-19 vaccination and openly defied it.

“between 100 000 and 200 000 Americans lost their lives because they refused COVID-19 vaccinations and were open in their defiance.”

• cites [245] Jia KM Hanage WP Lipsitch M Swerdlow DL Excess COVID-19 associated deaths among the unvaccinated population ≥18 years old in the US, May 30–December 4, 2021 medRxiv 2022 published online Feb 13. 10.1101/2022.02.10.22270823 (preprint). sourceNot checked yet

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In India, nearly 1 million front-line community health workers went on strike in Dec 2021 due to lack of protective equipment and $40/day wages.

“In India, nearly 1 million front-line community health workers went on strike in December, 2021, owing to a lack of protective equipment and wages of $40 a day”

• cites [283] Srivastava S A million frontline COVID workers demand India boost $40 pay Dec 1, 2021 Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-01/women-on-frontlines-of-india-s-vaccine-drive-threaten-to-strikeNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Surveyed populations in Eastern Mediterranean, European, and Americas regions were later and slower to start wearing masks, missing an early suppression opportunity.

“Surveyed populations in the Eastern Mediterranean region, the European region, and the region of the Americas were later and slower to start wearing face masks, missing an early opportunity to suppress the pandemic.”

• cites [257] YouGov YouGov COVID-19 behaviour changes tracker: wearing a face mask when in public places https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2020/03/17/personal-measures-taken-avoid-covid-19Not checked yet

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Mental health in countries aiming to suppress the virus was equivalent to or better than in countries with a flatten-the-curve strategy.

“the mental health of people in countries that aimed to suppress the virus was found to be equivalent to or better than the mental health of people in countries with a flatten-the-curve strategy.”

• cites [270] Aknin LB Andretti B Goldszmidt R Policy stringency and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal analysis of data from 15 countries Lancet Public Health 7 2022 e417 e426 35461592 PMC9023007 sourceNot checked yet

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Various aspects of mental health declined during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It is clear that various aspects of mental health declined during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

• cites [271] Aknin LB De Neve J-E Dunn EW Mental health during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: a review and recommendations for moving forward Perspect Psychol Sci 17 2022 915 936 35044275 PMC9274782 sourceNot checked yet

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Global evidence suggests vaccine hesitancy is highest among people with lower formal education and lower incomes.

“Global evidence suggests that vaccine hesitancy is highest among people with lower levels of formal education and with lower incomes”

• cites [174] Crawshaw J Konnyu K Castillo G van Allen Z Grimshaw JM Presseau J Factors affecting healthcare worker COVID-19 vaccination acceptance and uptake: a living behavioural science evidence synthesis (v5, Aug 31st, 2021) https://www.mcmasterforum.org/docs/default-source/product-documents/living-evidence-syntheses/covid-19-living-evidence-synthesis-4.5---factors-affecting-covid-19-vaccination-acceptance-and-uptake-among-the-general-public.pdf?sfvrsn=33dc4261_5Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [260] Parthasarathi A Puvvada RK Basappa S Thirumala Krishna M Global intention of the general public to undergo COVID-19 vaccination: time trends and risk factors for vaccine refusal, a systematic review and meta-analysis [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] Wellcome Open Res 7 2022 17Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [261] Germani F Biller-Andorno N The anti-vaccination infodemic on social media: a behavioral analysis PLoS One 16 2021 e0247642 PMC7928468 33657152 sourceNot checked yet

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Residents of Western Pacific countries, remembering the 2003 SARS epidemic, strongly adopted measures such as mask wearing, hygiene, and avoiding gatherings.

“Residents of countries in the Western Pacific region, remembering the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome, strongly adopted public health and social measures such as wearing face masks, increasing hygiene, and avoiding large public gatherings.”

Survey results confirm a disproportionate effect of the pandemic on livelihoods of female workers.

“survey results confirm a disproportionate effect of the pandemic on the livelihoods of female workers.”

• cites [290] Global Health 50/50 International Center for Research on Women African Population and Health Research Center The sex, gender and COVID-19 project https://globalhealth5050.org/the-sex-gender-and-covid-19-project/ 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [291] International Labour Organization ILO monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Third edition https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_743146.pdf April 29, 2020 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [292] Women in Informal Employment: Globalizing and Organizing COVID-19 and the informal economy: round 1 global summary https://www.wiego.org/publications/covid-19-and-informal-economy-round-1-global-summary July, 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Women have borne a disproportionate socioeconomic burden.

“women have borne a disproportionate socioeconomic burden”

• cites [285] Su Z Cheshmehzangi A McDonnell D Šegalo S Ahmad J Bennett B Gender inequality and health disparity amid COVID-19 Nurs Outlook 70 2022 89 95 34774306 PMC8410638 sourceNot checked yet

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People in marginalised communities with lower socioeconomic status and mental health conditions reported poorer mental health than the general population.

“people living in marginalised communities with lower socioeconomic status and mental health conditions reported poorer mental health than the general population.”

• cites [30] Muehlschlegel PA Parkinson EA Chan RY Arden MA Armitage CJ Learning from previous lockdown measures and minimising harmful biopsychosocial consequences as they end: a systematic review J Glob Health 11 2021 05008 PMC8141332 34055328 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [274] Sun Y Wu Y Bonardi O Comparison of mental health symptoms prior to and during COVID-19: evidence from a living systematic review and meta-analysis medRxiv 2021 published online May 11. 10.1101/2021.05.10.21256920 (preprint). sourceNot checked yet

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Essential workers are disproportionately concentrated among vulnerable minority and low-income communities.

“essential workers are disproportionately concentrated among vulnerable minority and low-income communities.”

Anti-vaccine disinformation in the US has been traced to well-organised right-wing groups using targeted social media.

“Anti-vaccine disinformation in the United States has been traced to well organised right-wing groups that use targeted social media.”

• cites [259] Center for Countering Digital Hate The disinformation dozen: why platforms must act on twelve leading online anti-vaxxers https://counterhate.com/research/the-disinformation-dozen March 24, 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The pandemic introduced new risk profiles, with younger people aged 18-34, women, and people with children under 5 showing the largest increase in psychological distress.

“The pandemic has also introduced new profiles of risk, with younger people (aged 18–34 years), women, and people with children under the age of 5 years showing the largest increase in psychological distress.”

• cites [275] Pierce M Hope H Ford T Mental health before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal probability sample survey of the UK population Lancet Psychiatry 7 2020 883 892 32707037 PMC7373389 sourceNot checked yet

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Pre-existing inequalities in mental health remained during the pandemic.

“Pre-existing inequalities in mental health have remained during the pandemic.”

• cites [30] Muehlschlegel PA Parkinson EA Chan RY Arden MA Armitage CJ Learning from previous lockdown measures and minimising harmful biopsychosocial consequences as they end: a systematic review J Glob Health 11 2021 05008 PMC8141332 34055328 sourceNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites [274] Sun Y Wu Y Bonardi O Comparison of mental health symptoms prior to and during COVID-19: evidence from a living systematic review and meta-analysis medRxiv 2021 published online May 11. 10.1101/2021.05.10.21256920 (preprint). sourceNot checked yet

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COVID-19-related protests overwhelmingly occurred in the Americas and Europe.

“Such protests have overwhelmingly taken place in the region of the Americas and the European region”

• cites [258] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Global protest tracker https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/interactive/protest-trackerNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

After late 2020, mask use declined in Eastern Mediterranean, European, and Americas regions at higher rates than in Western Pacific.

“after reaching a maximum in late 2020, the use of face masks declined in these regions at higher rates than in the Western Pacific region.”

• cites [257] YouGov YouGov COVID-19 behaviour changes tracker: wearing a face mask when in public places https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2020/03/17/personal-measures-taken-avoid-covid-19Not checked yet

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Socioeconomic divides have widened since the start of the pandemic.

“Socioeconomic divides have widened since the start of the pandemic.”

These groups of workers have been at greatest risk of serious illness and death from COVID-19.

“These groups of workers have been at the greatest risk of serious illness and death from COVID-19.”

• cites [278] Feldman JM Bassett MT Variation in COVID-19 mortality in the US by race and ethnicity and educational attainment JAMA Netw Open 4 2021 e2135967 PMC8611482 34812846 sourceNot checked yet

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Existing gender inequalities in labour, income, personal safety, education, and food security intensified during the pandemic, with regional variations.

“existing widespread gender inequalities in terms of labour, income, personal safety, education, and food security intensified over the course of the pandemic, with important regional, national, and local variations and disparities.”

• cites [286] Chu IY Alam P Larson HJ Lin L Social consequences of mass quarantine during epidemics: a systematic review with implications for the COVID-19 response J Travel Med 27 2020 taaa192 PMC7649384 33051660 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [287] Flor LS Friedman J Spencer CN Quantifying the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gender equality on health, social, and economic indicators: a comprehensive review of data from March, 2020, to September, 2021 Lancet 399 2022 2381 2397 35247311 PMC8890763 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [288] Morgan R Pimenta DN Rashid S Gender equality and COVID-19: act now before it is too late Lancet 399 2022 2327 2329 35247308 PMC8890757 sourceNot checked yet

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Data on short-term emotions, life evaluations, loneliness, and self-harming behaviour were more mixed.

“Data on short-term emotions, life evaluations, loneliness, and self-harming behaviour were more mixed.”

Worldwide, women comprise 70% of front-line health and social workers.

“Worldwide, women comprise 70% of front-line health and social workers.”

• cites [293] Boniol M McIsaac M Xu L Wuliji T Diallo K Campbell J Gender equity in the health workforce: analysis of 104 countries https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/311314 March, 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

UNICEF estimates a third of the world's schoolchildren were unable to access digital learning.

“UNICEF estimates that a third of the world's schoolchildren were unable to access digital learning.”

• cites [3] Commissioners of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission Task Force Chairs and members of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission Commission Secretariat and Staff of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission Priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2021: statement of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission Lancet 397 2021 947 950 33587888 PMC7906747 sourceNot checked yet

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Globally, a median of one in five young people aged 15-24 often felt depressed or had little interest in doing things.

“Globally, a median of one in five young people aged 15–24 years said that they often felt depressed or had little interest in doing things.”

• cites [314] UNICEF The state of the world's children 2021—on my mind: promoting, protecting and caring for children's mental health https://www.unicef.org/reports/state-worlds-children-2021 October, 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

School closures increased children's exposure to abuse.

“School closures also affected the safety of children, increasing their exposure to abuse.”

• cites [310] The Lancet COVID-19 Commission India Task Force Reopening schools after COVID-19 closures https://covid19commission.org/regional-task-force-india April, 2021Not checked yet

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In-person schooling was deprioritised even as other non-essential or less essential activities continued.

“In-person schooling was deprioritised even as other non-essential or less essential community and economic activities continued.”

• cites [307] National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools Living rapid review update 16: what is the specific role of daycares and schools in COVID-19 transmission? 2021 McMaster University Hamilton, ONNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [308] National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools Living rapid review update 4: what is known about the risk of transmission of COVID-19 within post-secondary institutions and the strategies to mitigate on-campus outbreaks? https://www.nccmt.ca/covid-19/covid-19-rapid-evidence-service/34 Feb 4, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [309] Xu W Li X Dong Y SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools: an updated living systematic review (version 2; November 2020) J Glob Health 11 2021 10004 PMC8590829 34804514 sourceNot checked yet

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Half of women's contributions to health care, totaling about $1.5 trillion annually, are underpaid or unpaid.

“it is estimated that half of the contributions by women to health care, which totals approximately $1·5 trillion annually, are in underpaid and unpaid work.”

• cites [294] WHO Delivered by women, led by men: a gender and equity analysis of the global health and social workforce https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/311322 March, 2019Not checked yet

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A WHO survey across 105 countries showed 68% of women faced disruption in family planning services early in the pandemic.

“a WHO survey showed that across 105 countries, 68% of women faced disruption in family planning services early in the pandemic.”

• cites [302] WHO Pulse survey on continuity of essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic: interim report https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-EHS_continuity-survey-2020.1 Aug 27, 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

As of Dec 2020, 64% of low-income US students attended school solely via computer, compared with 48% of high-income students.

“As of December, 2020, 64% of low-income students in the United States were attending school solely via computer, compared with 48% of high-income students.”

• cites [311] Levinson M Geller AC Allen JG Health equity, schooling hesitancy, and the social determinants of learning Lancet Reg Health Am 2 2021 100032 PMC9790768 36588583 sourceNot checked yet

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In Latin America, the share of women in the workforce declined from 51.4% in 2019 to 46.9% in 2020.

“In Latin America, the share of women in the workforce declined from 51·4% in 2019 to 46·9% in 2020.”

Nearly 80 million children are at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases due to fragile health systems disrupted by the pandemic.

“Nearly 80 million children are at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases as a result of fragile health systems that have been disrupted by the pandemic.”

• cites [2] The Lancet COVID-19 Commissioners Task Force Chairs Commission Secretariat Lancet COVID-19 Commission Statement on the occasion of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly Lancet 396 2020 1102 1124 32941825 PMC7489891 sourceNot checked yet

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For 2020, IMF estimated learning losses from mandated school closures at 20-25% of school year in advanced economies and twice that in emerging and developing economies.

“For 2020 alone, the IMF estimated learning losses from mandated school closures at 20–25% of the school year in advanced economies and twice that in emerging market and developing economies”

• cites [318] International Monetary Fund Fiscal Monitor https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2021/03/29/fiscal-monitor-april-2021 April 2021 sourceNot checked yet

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Women faced an epidemic of domestic violence alongside COVID-19, confirmed in several meta-analyses.

“Women faced an epidemic of domestic violence alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, as confirmed in several meta-analyses.”

• cites [300] Kourti A Stavridou A Panagouli E Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review Trauma Violence Abuse 2021 published online Aug 17. 10.1177/15248380211038690 PMC10011925 34402325 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [301] Piquero AR Jennings WG Jemison E Kaukinen C Knaul FM Domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic—evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis J Crim Justice 74 2021 101806 PMC9582712 36281275 sourceNot checked yet

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Women dropped out of the labour force at higher rates than men.

“women, who dropped out of the labour force at higher rates than men.”

• cites [297] Power K The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the care burden of women and families Sustain Sci Pract Policy 16 2020 67 73Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [298] International Labour Organization Building forward fairer: women's rights to work and at work at the core of the COVID-19 recovery https://www.ilo.org/gender/Informationresources/Publications/WCMS_814499/lang--en/index.htm July 19, 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Children younger than 18 are considerably affected by indirect repercussions of the pandemic.

“children younger than 18 years are considerably affected by the indirect repercussions of the pandemic.”

• cites [303] National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools Rapid review update 1: what are the risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes in children 12 years and under? https://www.nccmt.ca/pdfs/res/risk-factors-children Jan 18, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Lockdowns resulted in increased gender-based violence.

“Lockdowns also resulted in increased gender-based violence.”

In Latin America, more than 165 million young people stopped attending classes in person.

“In Latin America, more than 165 million young people stopped attending classes in person.”

• cites [312] The Lancet COVID-19 Commission Regional Task Force: Latin America and the Caribbean Regional coordination for strengthening pandemic preparedness, vaccine access, and effective implementation of vaccine deployment plans https://covid19commission.org/regional-task-force-lac November, 2021Not checked yet

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Across the US and Mexico, at least 62 million school-age children aged 5-18 were physically out of school for at least 13 months continuously.

“Across the United States and Mexico, at least 62 million elementary-age and secondary-school-age children (aged 5–18 years) were physically out of school for at least 13 months continuously.”

• cites [311] Levinson M Geller AC Allen JG Health equity, schooling hesitancy, and the social determinants of learning Lancet Reg Health Am 2 2021 100032 PMC9790768 36588583 sourceNot checked yet

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11.2 million girls and young women globally are at risk of not returning to care centres, schools, or universities.

“11·2 million girls and young women globally are now at risk of not returning to care centres, schools, or universities.”

• cites [304] Barron GC Laryea-Adjei G Vike-Freiberga V Safeguarding people living in vulnerable conditions in the COVID-19 era through universal health coverage and social protection Lancet Public Health 7 2022 e86 e92 34906331 PMC8665842Not checked yet

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Estimated economic loss for south Asia due to school closure is projected between $622 billion and $880 billion.

“The estimated economic loss for south Asia due to school closure is projected to be between $622 billion (best-case scenario) and $880 billion (worst-case scenario).”

• cites [310] The Lancet COVID-19 Commission India Task Force Reopening schools after COVID-19 closures https://covid19commission.org/regional-task-force-india April, 2021Not checked yet

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Children have lower risk of severe COVID-19.

“Because of the lower risk of severe COVID-19 among children”

Women faced an enormous increase in time demands during the pandemic.

“Women faced an enormous increase in the demands on their time during the pandemic.”

• cites [295] Garijo B COVID-19 highlights how caregiving fuels gender inequality https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/covid-19-highlights-how-caregiving-fuels-gender-inequality/ April 24, 2020Not checked yet

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• cites [296] National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools What is known about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on families with children? https://res.nccmt.ca/family-life-EN July 22, 2020Not checked yet

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Many LMICs that faced HIV, Ebola, and Zika integrated COVID-19 responses with community screening and contact tracing and rapidly deployed community health workers.

“Many LMICs—particularly those that have faced other epidemics, such as HIV, Ebola, and Zika—were able to integrate their responses to COVID-19 with well established community screening and contact-tracing capacity, and to rapidly deploy community health workers.”

• cites [366] Nachega JB Atteh R Ihekweazu C Contact tracing and the COVID-19 response in Africa: best practices, key challenges, and lessons learned from Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda Am J Trop Med Hyg 104 2021 1179 1187 33571138 PMC8045625Not checked yet

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Indigenous Peoples have higher risk of infection with severe socioeconomic, cultural, and health consequences due to poorer baseline health and lower access to health care and sanitation.

“Indigenous Peoples have a higher risk of infection with severe socioeconomic, cultural, and health consequences, due to poorer baseline health status and lower access to health care and sanitation services than the general population.”

• cites [332] WHO WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19—20 July 2020 https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—20-july-2020 July 20, 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

In the US, only 64% of the population was fully vaccinated as of Jan 31, 2022.

“only 64% of the population was fully vaccinated as of Jan 31, 2022.”

Within the US health-care sector, focus has been on secondary and tertiary care rather than universal access to primary health care.

“Within the health-care sector, the focus has been on secondary and tertiary health care rather than on universal access to primary health care.”

All regions have seen incidents of discrimination, xenophobia, racism, and attacks against people scapegoated for spreading the virus.

“all regions have seen incidents of discrimination, xenophobia, racism, and attacks against people scapegoated for spreading the virus.”

• cites [326] Devakumar D Shannon G Bhopal SS Abubakar I Racism and discrimination in COVID-19 responses Lancet 395 2020 1194 PMC7146645 32246915Not checked yet

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In Bhutan, Brazil, and Kenya, community health workers had an essential role in pandemic responses, including encouraging public health measures and vaccination uptake.

“in Bhutan, Brazil, and Kenya, community health workers had an essential role in pandemic responses, including encouraging the adoption of public health and social measures and vaccination uptake.”

• cites [372] UNICEF Engaging communities to ensure safety and wellbeing of families during COVID-19 pandemic https://www.unicef.org/bhutan/stories/engaging-communities-ensure-safety-and-wellbeing-families-during-covid-19-pandemic June 18, 2021Not checked yet

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• cites [373] Lotta G Nunes J Fernandez M Garcia Correa M The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the frontline health workforce: perceptions of vulnerability of Brazil's community health workers Health Policy OPEN 3 2022 100065 PMC8752101 35036911Not checked yet

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• cites [374] Bhaumik S Moola S Tyagi J Nambiar D Kakoti M Community health workers for pandemic response: a rapid evidence synthesis BMJ Glob Health 5 2020 e002769 PMC7292038 32522738Not checked yet

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Approximately two-thirds of additional malaria deaths were linked to disruptions in malaria prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

“Approximately two-thirds of these additional malaria deaths were linked to disruptions in the provision of malaria prevention, diagnosis, and treatment”

• cites [385] WHO More malaria cases and deaths in 2020 linked to COVID-19 disruptions https://www.who.int/news/item/06-12-2021-more-malaria-cases-and-deaths-in-2020-linked-to-covid-19-disruptions Dec 6, 2021Not checked yet

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There have been vast differences between COVID-19 effects in countries with resilient national health systems and universal health coverage and those without.

“There have been vast differences between the effects of COVID-19 on populations in countries with resilient national health systems and universal health coverage and in countries without such systems.”

• cites [376] Lal A Erondu NA Heymann DL Gitahi G Yates R Fragmented health systems in COVID-19: rectifying the misalignment between global health security and universal health coverage Lancet 397 2021 61 67 33275906 PMC7834479Not checked yet

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• cites [377] Haldane V De Foo C Abdalla SM Health systems resilience in managing the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons from 28 countries Nat Med 27 2021 964 980 34002090Not checked yet

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• cites [378] Assefa Y Gilks CF van de Pas R Reid S Gete DG Van Damme W Reimagining global health systems for the 21st century: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic BMJ Glob Health 6 2021 e004882 PMC8088119 33906846Not checked yet

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The US Government played a long-term and pivotal role in funding scientific development of several vaccine platforms, most notably mRNA technologies underlying Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines.

“The US Government has had a long-term and pivotal role in funding the scientific development of several vaccine platforms, most notably the mRNA vaccine technologies that underpin the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines.”

Lack of social solidarity is especially acute regarding marginalised groups such as homeless, incarcerated, drug users, domestic abuse victims, racial and ethnic minorities, and low-income people.

“The lack of social solidarity is especially acute regarding marginalised groups in society, such as people experiencing homelessness, people who are incarcerated, people who use drugs, people experiencing domestic abuse, people from racial and ethnic minorities, and people with low incomes.”

The study of behavioural interventions using observational data has also been helpful to control the pandemic.

“However, the study of behavioural interventions using observational data has also been helpful to control the pandemic.450”

• cites [450] Hansen N-JH Mano R Mask mandates save lives https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/08/05/Mask-Mandates-Save-Lives-460123 Aug 6, 2021 PMC9968482 36854572Not checked yet

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Workers with tertiary education were generally least affected by employment losses.

“Workers who had received tertiary education were generally the least affected by employment losses.”

• cites [455] International Monetary Fund G-20 surveillance note https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/021622.htm February, 2022Not checked yet

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Some governments in poorer countries lacked the means to pay monopoly prices and had to wait for donations or discounts.

“Some governments in poorer countries lacked the means altogether to pay monopoly prices, and had to wait in the back of the queue for donations or discounts.”

NIH long funded bench research at the University of Pennsylvania that led to use of pseudouridine in mRNA formulations of both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.

“The NIH has long funded crucial bench research at the University of Pennsylvania that led to the use of a modified amino acid (pseudouridine) in the mRNA formulation of both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Moderna vaccines.”

AstraZeneca announced in November 2021 that it planned to step down not-for-profit provision of vaccine doses.

“However, AstraZeneca announced in November, 2021 that it planned to begin stepping down the provision of doses on a not-for-profit basis.430”

• cites [430] Espiner T AstraZeneca to take profits from COVID vaccine Nov 12, 2021 BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59256223Not checked yet

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The ability to grant emergency-use listing of COVID-19 vaccines was restricted to WHO or one of six stringent regulatory authorities in the US, Canada, UK, EU, Australia, and Japan, excluding LMIC national regulatory authorities.

“The ability to grant emergency-use listing of COVID-19 vaccines was restricted to either WHO or one of the six stringent regulatory authorities in the United States, Canada, UK, EU, Australia, and Japan—once again excluding any national regulatory authority based in an LMIC.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The ability to grant emergency-use listing of COVID-19 vaccines was restricted to WHO or one of six stringent regulatory authorities, excluding LMIC national regulatory authorities.

Vaccine-producing countries such as India imposed export bans on vaccines rather than delivering them to COVAX as promised.

“Moreover, vaccine-producing countries, such as India, imposed export bans on vaccines rather than delivering them to COVAX as promised.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Vaccine-producing countries such as India imposed export bans on vaccines rather than delivering them to COVAX as promised.

Economies following a suppression approach-China, New Zealand, Taiwan, Province of China, and Republic of Korea-had smaller growth shortfalls than the rest of the world.

“In general, economies that followed a suppression approach—China, New Zealand, Taiwan, Province of China, and Republic of Korea—had smaller growth shortfalls than the rest of the world.”

• cites [453] International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, October 2019: global manufacturing downturn, rising trade barriers https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/10/01/world-economic-outlook-october-2019 October, 2019Not checked yet

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• cites [454] International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, April 2022: war sets back the global recovery https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022 April, 2022Not checked yet

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Intellectual property funded by the US Government typically ends up entirely in non-governmental hands at universities or companies.

“Typically, intellectual property that has been funded by the US Government ends up entirely in non-governmental hands, whether at universities or companies.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Intellectual property funded by the US Government typically ends up entirely in non-governmental hands at universities or companies.

US Government funding for clinical trials of the Moderna vaccine totalled an additional $4.9 billion in 2020.

“US Government funding for clinical trials of the Moderna vaccine totalled an additional $4·9 billion in 2020.426”

• cites [426] Siddalingaiah SV Operation Warp Speed contracts for COVID-19 vaccines and ancillary vaccination materials. Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11560 March 1, 2021Not checked yet

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COVAX failed to deliver on its targets and timelines because vaccine-producing companies made contracts directly with highest-paying governments rather than COVAX, which insisted on lower prices for low-income countries.

“However, in practice, COVAX failed to deliver on its targets and timelines because vaccine-producing companies made contracts directly with the governments that paid the highest prices, rather than with COVAX, which insisted on lower prices for low-income countries.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: COVAX failed to deliver on its targets and timelines because vaccine-producing companies made contracts directly with highest-paying governments rather than COVAX.

Despite widespread empirical evidence of opportunities offered by green recovery strategies, most industrialised countries have only partly implemented sufficiently ambitious green stimulus packages.

“Despite widespread empirical evidence of the opportunities offered by green recovery strategies, current practice shows that most industrialised countries have only partly implemented sufficiently ambitious green stimulus packages.480, 481, 482, 483, 484, 485”

• cites [480] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development The OECD Green Recovery Database—examining the environmental implications of COVID-19 recovery policies https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-oecd-green-recovery-database-47ae0f0d/ April 19, 2021Not checked yet

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• cites [481] International Energy Agency Sustainable recovery tracker: monitoring progress towards sustainable recoveries from the COVID-19 crisis https://www.iea.org/reports/sustainable-recovery-tracker April, 2022Not checked yet

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• cites [482] Oxford University Economic Recovery Project Global Recovery Observatory https://recovery.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/tracking/#:~:text=The%20Global%20Recovery%20Observatory%20brings,more%20impactful%20and%20sustainable%20investmentNot checked yet

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This assistance amounted to roughly 1.5% of health financing of LMICs.

“This assistance amounted to roughly 1·5% of the health financing of LMICs, a very modest sum.463”

• cites [463] Development Initiatives Aid spent on health: ODA data on donors, sectors, recipients https://devinit.org/resources/aid-spent-health-oda-data-donors-sectors-recipients/ July 24, 2020Not checked yet

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The COVID-19 pandemic is causing long-term economic and social scarring.

“The extended period of economic disruption is creating long-term economic and social scarring, including long-lasting difficulties for children whose schooling has been repeatedly disrupted; new debt crises among low-income countries that are facing sustained output and revenue losses amid the tightening of global financial conditions, and in some cases facing years of reduced numbers of tourists;”

• cites [471] Behsudi A Wish you were here: tourism-dependent economies are among those harmed the most by the pandemic https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/12/impact-of-the-pandemic-on-tourism-behsudi December, 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [271] Aknin LB De Neve J-E Dunn EW Mental health during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: a review and recommendations for moving forward Perspect Psychol Sci 17 2022 915 936 35044275 PMC9274782 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [472] Bucciarelli V Nasi M Bianco F Depression pandemic and cardiovascular risk in the COVID-19 era and long COVID syndrome: gender makes a difference Trends Cardiovasc Med 32 2022 12 17 34619336 PMC8490128 sourceNot checked yet

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According to IMF data, advanced economies increased budget deficits relative to GDP by an average of 6.8 percentage points during 2020-21 compared with 2019.

“According to IMF data, the advanced economies increased their budget deficits relative to GDP by an average of 6·8 percentage points during 2020–21 compared with 2019.”

• cites IMF dataNot checked yet

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80% of countries worldwide invest less than 1% of GDP in research and development.

“80% of countries worldwide invest less than 1% of GDP in research and development.462”

• cites [462] UNESCO UNESCO science report: the race against time for smarter development https://www.unesco.org/reports/science/2021/en 2021Not checked yet

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Layered measures such as widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation, proper mask use, physical distancing, limits on mass gatherings, and better workplace ventilation reduce R below 1, causing the epidemic to decline.

“Third, through the implementation of combinations of layered control measures—including widespread testing, contact tracing, and isolating; proper use of face masks; physical distancing; limitations on mass gatherings; and improved ventilation systems at workplaces—R decreases to less than 1, so the epidemic declines.16, 26”

• cites [16] Regmi K Lwin CM Factors associated with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions for reducing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a systematic review Int J Environ Res Public Health 18 2021 4274 PMC8072790 33920613Not checked yet

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• cites [26] Walsh KA Tyner B Broderick N Effectiveness of public health measures to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at mass gatherings: a rapid review Rev Med Virol 32 2022 e2285 34390056Not checked yet

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Identifying cases and then tracing contacts and isolating or quarantining them can slow and reduce transmission.

“Case identification followed by contact tracing and isolation or quarantine can slow and reduce transmission.16, 17, 18”

• cites [16] Regmi K Lwin CM Factors associated with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions for reducing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a systematic review Int J Environ Res Public Health 18 2021 4274 PMC8072790 33920613Not checked yet

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• cites [17] Nussbaumer-Streit B Mayr V Dobrescu AI Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review Cochrane Database Syst Rev 9 2020 CD013574 PMC8133397 33959956 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [18] Burns J Movsisyan A Stratil JM International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review Cochrane Database Syst Rev 3 2021 CD013717 PMC8406796 33763851Not checked yet

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Even during community transmission, it is sufficient to identify and isolate a high proportion of infected people early in their infectious period so that each infected person generates fewer than one new infection on average.

“Even with community transmission, all is not necessarily lost. Identifying and isolating a high proportion of infected individuals early in their infectious period, so that on average each infected person gives rise to less than one new infected person, is sufficient.”

In the uncontrolled scenario with R0=2.4, the epidemic ends after most people have been infected and acquired immunity, a strategy sometimes called herd immunity.

“First is the uncontrolled scenario, R 0=2·4. In this case, the epidemic eventually ends when most of the population has been infected and therefore has eventually acquired immunity (at least temporarily). This kind of mass infection that eventually results in mass acquired immunity through natural infection is sometimes called the herd-immunity strategy.22”

• cites [22] Kulldorf M Gupta S Bhattacharya J The Great Barrington Declaration https://gbdeclaration.org/#read Oct 4, 2020Not checked yet

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When quality, affordable community testing is widely available, infected people can quickly learn of their infection and potential infectiousness, and by using masks, distancing, and early isolation they are more likely to transmit to fewer than one other person.

“With widespread access to quality and affordable community testing, infected individuals can learn quickly of their own SARS-CoV-2 infection and of their potential infectiousness to others, and can use face masks, adopt physical distancing, and isolate as soon as possible after infection. By doing so, these people are more likely to give rise to less than one new infection.”

That hostility severely weakened the ability of international institutions such as WHO to perform their assigned roles in the pandemic response.

“This hostility gravely weakened the capacity of international institutions such as WHO to conduct their assigned roles in the pandemic response.”

When many countries must cooperate, even a few governments that do not suppress allow travellers from those countries to keep spreading the virus to others.

“Yet when 27 EU countries or all 193 UN member states must cooperate on such measures, even if just a few governments do not pursue a suppression strategy, travellers from those countries will continue to spread the virus to the rest.”

Most epidemics in history have involved a pathogen passing from an animal host to humans and then spreading human-to-human.

“Most epidemics in history have involved the passage of a pathogen from an animal host to humans, followed by human-to-human transmission.54”

• cites [54] Wolfe ND Dunavan CP Diamond J Origins of major human infectious diseases Nature 447 2007 279 283 17507975 PMC7095142 sourceNot checked yet

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In COVID-19, a decentralised approach among many governments may lead each to choose very low pandemic control because others do so, even though all would be better off with suppression.

“In the context of COVID-19, a decentralised approach among many governments might end up with each choosing a very low degree of pandemic control because other countries are also doing so, even though every country would be better off if all pursued a suppression policy.”

The presence of the furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 does not by itself identify whether the proximal origin was natural or laboratory-related.

“The presence of the furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 therefore does not by itself identify the proximal origin of the virus, whether natural or laboratory.”

Because the first emergence could have been in November 2019 or earlier, the mid-December 2019 market-associated cases could indicate a human-to-human amplifier event rather than the original animal-to-human spillover.

“Because the first emergence of the virus could well have been in November, 2019, or even earlier, the cases associated with the Huanan Seafood Market in mid-December, 2019, could well indicate a human-to-human amplifier event rather than the original animal-to-human spillover.”

For two neighbouring countries with an open border, keeping R near 0 is possible only if both adopt a suppression policy with R<1, assuming that closing travel or imposing effective quarantine on travellers is not practical.

“If two neighbouring countries have a shared open border, the maintenance of R near 0 is feasible only if both countries pursue a suppression (R<1) policy, supposing that it is not practical to either shut down travel between the two countries or to impose an effective quarantine on travellers between the two countries.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: In the two-country open-border scenario, it is not practical to shut down travel between the countries or to impose effective quarantine on travellers between them.

Lockdowns with high adherence can produce marked but temporary reductions in R, leading to rapid declines in new infections and total infected people.

“Lockdowns with high rates of adherence can cause pronounced, albeit temporary, reductions of R, thereby causing a rapid decline in the number of new infections and the total number of infected people.”

A single country's suppression benefits all others by reducing the risk that its travellers bring new infections or that its population generates new variants.

“When a single country chooses a suppression strategy, it renders a positive service to all other countries by greatly reducing the risk of its travellers bringing new infections to other parts of the world or of its population giving rise to new variants.”

The societal and governance levels reinforce one another through their interactions.

“These levels of society and governance are mutually reinforcing, as they interact and influence one another.”

If lockdown is followed by a return to pre-lockdown controls, R quickly rebounds and exponential growth soon restores the previous daily infection rate.

“If the lockdown is simply followed by a relaxation of controls to the pre-lockdown status quo, then R quickly returns to the pre-lockdown level, and within a short period of time the exponential growth of new infections restores the pre-lockdown rate of daily infections.”

Prosocial behaviour is required not only among individuals but also among governments.

“Crucially, prosociality applies between governments as well as between individuals.”

The proximal reservoir of MERS-CoV is dromedary camels.

“The proximal reservoir of MERS-CoV, the virus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome, is dromedary camels (Camelus dromedarius).56”

• cites [56] Mohd HA Al-Tawfiq JA Memish ZA Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) origin and animal reservoir Virol J 13 2016 87 27255185 PMC4891877 sourceNot checked yet

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SARS-CoV-2 is thought to derive from a bat SARS-CoV-related coronavirus with a furin cleavage site that increases its ability to infect human cells.

“Although the proximal origins are unknown, SARS-CoV-2 is thought to derive from a bat SARS-CoV-related coronavirus with a furin cleavage site that enhances the capacity of the virus to infect human cells.48, 49”

• cites [48] Boni MF Lemey P Jiang X Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic Nat Microbiol 5 2020 1408 1417 32724171 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [49] Hasan A Paray BA Hussain A A review on the cleavage priming of the spike protein on coronavirus by angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 and furin J Biomol Struct Dyn 39 2021 3025 3033 32274964 PMC7189411 sourceNot checked yet

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SARS-CoV-2 might well be a natural spillover, especially given findings of SARS-CoV-2-like viruses in bats across east Asia.

“SARS-CoV-2 might well be such an instance, especially given findings of SARS-CoV-2-like viruses in bats across east Asia.57”

• cites [57] Mallapaty S Coronaviruses closely related to the pandemic virus discovered in Japan and Cambodia Nature 588 2020 15 16 33230273 sourceNot checked yet

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If all countries suppress, the epidemic could be stopped without prolonged closure of international travel.

“If all countries choose suppression strategies, it would be possible to stop the epidemic without resorting to extended closure of international travels.”

Human encroachment into animal habitats, such as forest clearing, handling exotic animals in illicit trade, farms, and live animal markets, increases the danger of zoonotic spillovers.

“The dangers of zoonotic spillovers are increased by human encroachments into the habitats of animals that carry novel pathogens, such as through forest clearing, the handling of exotic animals in the illicit trade of wild species, in farms that raise domestic animals, and in food markets that sell and slaughter live animals.58, 59”

• cites [58] Chomel BB Belotto A Meslin FX Wildlife, exotic pets, and emerging zoonoses Emerg Infect Dis 13 2007 6 11 17370509 PMC2725831Not checked yet

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• cites [59] Gibb R Redding DW Chin KQ Zoonotic host diversity increases in human-dominated ecosystems Nature 584 2020 398 402 32759999Not checked yet

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A flatten-the-curve strategy is likely when policymakers' main concern is hospital patient surges and they view stronger control measures as too costly, unnecessary, or infeasible.

“The flatten-the-curve strategy is likely to be adopted when the over-riding concern of policy makers is the surge of patients into the hospital system, and stronger control measures are viewed as too costly, unnecessary, or infeasible.”

Direct bat-to-human transmission is possible because some bat coronaviruses can bind human ACE2 and infect humans without adaptation.

“It is possible that the virus was passed directly from bats to humans because there are bat coronaviruses that can bind to human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and thereby infect humans without adaptation.”

The bat-to-intermediate-host-to-human pathway is plausible because many early known COVID-19 cases in Wuhan are linked to the Huanan Seafood Market, which sold animals such as raccoon dogs susceptible to SARS-related coronaviruses.

“The other natural pathway is transmission from bats to an intermediate host mammal and then to a human.61 This pathway is plausible because many of the earliest known cases of COVID-19 in humans in Wuhan are associated with the Huanan Seafood Market, and this market sold animals such as raccoon dogs that are known to be susceptible to SARS-related coronaviruses.62”

• cites [61] Wardeh M Baylis M Blagrove MSC Predicting mammalian hosts in which novel coronaviruses can be generated Nat Commun 12 2021 780 33594041 PMC7887240 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [62] Xiao X Newman C Buesching CD Macdonald DW Zhou Z-M Animal sales from Wuhan wet markets immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic Sci Rep 11 2021 11898 PMC8184983 34099828 sourceNot checked yet

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The proximal source of SARS-CoV was likely exotic animals in a live animal market in Guangdong, most probably palm civets and perhaps raccoon dogs.

“For example, the proximal source of SARS-CoV, the virus that led to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003–04, was likely to have been exotic animals in a live animal market in Guangdong, China—most probably palm civets (Paguma larvata) and perhaps raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides).55”

• cites [55] Shi Z Hu Z A review of studies on animal reservoirs of the SARS coronavirus Virus Res 133 2008 74 87 17451830 PMC7114516 sourceNot checked yet

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The idea that no one is safe until everyone is safe is an epidemiological reality in a weakest-link context, not merely rhetoric or a moral claim.

“The slogan “no one is safe until everybody is safe” is not mere rhetoric, or a moral truth, but an epidemiological reality in a weakest-link context.”

Since 2006, furin cleavage sites have been subject to laboratory manipulation, including insertion into coronavirus spike proteins.

“Since 2006, following the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome, furin cleavage sites have also been the subject of laboratory manipulation, including their insertion into coronavirus spike proteins.52”

• cites [52] Follis KE York J Nunberg JH Furin cleavage of the SARS coronavirus spike glycoprotein enhances cell–cell fusion but does not affect virion entry Virology 350 2006 358 369 16519916 PMC7111780 sourceNot checked yet

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The cost-benefit assessment of a suppression strategy remains provisional until an exit policy exists, whether through global containment or through high vaccination and access to effective medicines.

“The final tally of costs and benefits of a suppression strategy will necessarily be provisional until there is an exit policy, either through worldwide containment or through a high level of vaccination and access to effective medicines.”

Each country's actions create important externalities for all other countries.

“The actions of each country have important effects, or externalities, on all other countries.”

Bats known to harbour these viruses are present across east Asia, including central China.

“Bats known to harbour these viruses are present across east Asia, including in central China.60”

• cites [60] Guo H Hu B Si H-R Identification of a novel lineage bat SARS-related coronaviruses that use bat ACE2 receptor Emerg Microbes Infect 10 2021 1507 1514 34263709 PMC8344244 sourceNot checked yet

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The outcome of a weakest-link game depends on the weakest links among national governments.

“Such a strategic situation is known as a weakest-link game, because the outcome—in this case the chance of a suppression solution—depends on the weakest links among the national governments.35, 36, 37”

• cites [35] Sandler T COVID-19 and collective action Peace Econ Peace Sci Public Policy 26 2020 1 8 PMC8887915 35880185Not checked yet

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• cites [36] Caparrós A Finus M The corona-pandemic: a game-theoretic perspective on regional and global governance Environ Res Econ 76 2020 913 927 PMC7399618 32836857 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [37] Brown G Susskind D International cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic Oxf Rev Econ Policy 36 suppl 1 2020 S64 S76 PMC7337788 40504203 sourceNot checked yet

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A suppression strategy is likely when suppressing the pandemic is judged feasible and its cost low enough to justify stronger actions.

“The suppression strategy is likely to be adopted if suppression of the pandemic is deemed to be feasible and at sufficiently low cost to justify the stronger actions needed.”

The case for global cooperation in response to an emerging infectious disease has long been recognised in international law, diplomacy, and practice.

“The overwhelming case for global cooperation in response to an emerging infectious disease has long been recognised in international law, diplomacy, and practice.”

There appears to have been reticence in reporting the initial outbreak to national authorities, as records remained with local Wuhan authorities.

“There seems to have been reticence in reporting the initial outbreak to the national authorities, as records of the initial outbreak remained among local Wuhan authorities.”

Advances in biotechnology over the past two decades have made it possible to create new and highly dangerous pathogens through genetic manipulation, such as chimeric viruses or mutant viruses with an inserted furin cleavage site.

“Advances in biotechnology in the past two decades have made it possible to create new and highly dangerous pathogens through genetic manipulation—for example, creating chimeric viruses by combining the genetic material of more than one viral pathogen, or mutant viruses through the deliberate insertion of a furin cleavage site.”

Bioengineering of SARS-CoV-like viruses for studying and testing drugs and vaccines advanced substantially after the SARS outbreak in the 2000s.

“The bioengineering of SARS-CoV-like viruses for the study and testing of potential drugs and vaccines advanced substantially after the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2000s.52, 64”

• cites [52] Follis KE York J Nunberg JH Furin cleavage of the SARS coronavirus spike glycoprotein enhances cell–cell fusion but does not affect virion entry Virology 350 2006 358 369 16519916 PMC7111780 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [64] Ng OW Tan YJ Understanding bat SARS-like coronaviruses for the preparation of future coronavirus outbreaks—implications for coronavirus vaccine development Hum Vaccin Immunother 13 2017 186 189 27644155 PMC5287300 sourceNot checked yet

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The IHR (2005), which govern the COVID-19 response, marked a decisive upgrade of international cooperation amid the expansion of international trade and travel in the early 2000s.

“In principle, the IHR (2005), which are the governing regulations for the COVID-19 response, marked a decisive upgrade of international cooperation amid the massive expansion of international trade and travel in the early 2000s.85”

• cites [85] WHO International Health Regulations 3rd edn. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241580496 2005Not checked yet

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The precise timing of initial infections matters because earlier warnings by local authorities and international observers to national and global health bodies would have made suppression of the outbreak more likely.

“The precise timing of initial infections matters, because earlier warnings by local authorities and international observers to national and global health bodies would have made suppression of the outbreak more likely.”

There are three methods of transmission for respiratory infectious diseases: airborne, spray, and touch or fomite.

“There are three methods of transmission of respiratory infectious diseases.”

Airborne transmission in both near-field and far-field is a crucial, if not dominant, exposure pathway for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses.

“Airborne transmission in both the near-fields and the far-fields is a crucial, if not dominant, exposure pathway for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses.”

Such recommendations helped perpetuate the erroneous idea that spray transmission was the dominant mode of spread for respiratory infectious diseases, including COVID-19.

“Such recommendations contributed to the perpetuation of the erroneous idea that spray transmission was the dominant mode of spread of respiratory infectious diseases, including COVID-19.136”

• cites [136] Randall K Ewing ET Marr LC Jimenez JL Bourouiba L How did we get here: what are droplets and aerosols and how far do they go? A historical perspective on the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases Interface Focus 11 2021 20210049 PMC8504878 34956601 sourceNot checked yet

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Long-standing erroneous thinking about airborne transmission led WHO to discount this route at the start of the pandemic.

“Long-standing erroneous thinking about airborne transmission led WHO to discount the role of this transmission route at the start of the pandemic.”

The loss of a week enabled considerable global diffusion of the virus.

“This loss of a week enabled considerable global diffusion of the virus.”

Rapid identification of dominant exposure routes for an emerging infectious disease is a crucial first step in response, because it helps establish effective control strategies.

“A rapid identification of dominant exposure routes for an emerging infectious disease is a crucial first step in the response to a new outbreak, because this knowledge helps to establish effective control strategies for reducing risk.”

Because most transmission occurs during close contact, it was wrongly assumed that transmission was through spray rather than airborne aerosols.

“Because most transmission occurs when people are in close contact, it was wrongly assumed that transmission was through spray rather than through airborne aerosols.”

The IHR (2005) allow early use of measures such as collecting travel information and travel history from passengers and using screening.

“The IHR (2005) does allow for the early use of measures such as the collection of travel information and travel history from passengers and the use of screening.”

The downplaying of airborne transmission can be traced to misinterpretation of observations and experimental results from about 100 years ago.

“The downplaying of airborne transmission can be traced to the misinterpretation of observations and experimental results from around 100 years ago.”

A paradigm shift is underway in how the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases is viewed and addressed.

“A paradigm shift in how we view and address the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases is underway.118”

• cites [118] Morawska L Allen J Bahnfleth W A paradigm shift to combat indoor respiratory infection Science 372 2021 689 691 33986171 sourceNot checked yet

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Before COVID-19, it was widely believed that travel restrictions were not highly effective for controlling emerging infectious diseases.

“Before the onset of COVID-19, it was widely believed that travel restrictions were not highly effective for the control of emerging infectious diseases.”

Other than regional cooperation among the countries of the Western Pacific region, there was little early effort across governments to coordinate approaches to limit transmission of the virus during the pandemic.

“Other than regional cooperation among the countries of the Western Pacific region, there was little early effort across governments to coordinate approaches to limit transmission of the virus during the pandemic.”

Governments in the European region did not aim to suppress the pandemic, only to slow the transmission of the virus.

“Governments in the European region did not aim to suppress the pandemic, only to slow the transmission of the virus.”

In the United States, the initial test kits provided by the US CDC were faulty.

“In the United States, the initial test kits provided by the US CDC were faulty”

• cites [158] Lee JS Goldstein JM Moon JL Analysis of the initial lot of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) real-time RT-PCR diagnostic panel PLoS One 16 2021 e0260487 PMC8673615 34910739 sourceNot checked yet

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The World Bank provided nearly US$14 billion in fast-track support for COVID-19-related relief efforts.

“The World Bank provided nearly US$14 billion in fast-track support for COVID-19-related relief efforts”

• cites [144] The World Bank World Bank Group's operational response to COVID-19 (coronavirus)—projects list https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/what-we-do/brief/world-bank-group-operational-response-covid-19-coronavirus-projects-list March 14, 2022 sourceNot checked yet

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National governments generally took actions on their own with disregard for any effects on, or from, other countries.

“Instead, national governments generally took actions on their own with disregard for any effects on, or from, other countries.”

The suppression strategy during 2020 and 2021 had a lasting benefit, as it gave time for high rates of vaccination coverage.

“The suppression strategy during 2020 and 2021 therefore had a lasting benefit, as it gave time for high rates of vaccination coverage.”

The 2019 Global Health Security Index ranked the United States first and the UK second in the world in terms of preparedness for pandemics and epidemics.

“On the basis of the 2019 publication of the Global Health Security Index, which ranked the United States first and the UK second in the world in terms of preparedness for pandemics and epidemics”

• cites [151] Nuclear Threat Initiative Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Global health security index: building collective action and accountability https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2019-Global-Health-Security-Index.pdf October, 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Other than in the Western Pacific region, national pandemic control systems were very disappointing compared with expectations in 2019.

“Other than in the Western Pacific region, national pandemic control systems were very disappointing compared with expectations in 2019.”

The international distribution of COVID-19 death rates is almost the opposite of what might have been expected before the pandemic.

“The international distribution of COVID-19 death rates is almost the opposite of what might have been expected before the pandemic.”

Few if any countries in the Americas were prepared for the pandemic.

“Few if any countries in the Americas were prepared for the pandemic.”

A serosurvey in six districts of Zambia showed that the case ascertainment rate was only one reported case per 92 actual infections, or 1.1%.

“A serosurvey in six districts of Zambia showed that the case ascertainment rate was only one reported case per 92 actual infections, or 1·1%.”

• cites [183] Mulenga LB Hines JZ Fwoloshi S Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in six districts in Zambia in July, 2020: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey Lancet Glob Health 9 2021 e773 e781 33711262 PMC8382844 sourceNot checked yet

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The World Bank approved $12 billion in 2020 for countries to buy and deliver vaccines.

“approved $12 billion in 2020 for countries to buy and deliver vaccines”

• cites [144] The World Bank World Bank Group's operational response to COVID-19 (coronavirus)—projects list https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/what-we-do/brief/world-bank-group-operational-response-covid-19-coronavirus-projects-list March 14, 2022 sourceNot checked yet

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The world has paid a high price for the combination of poor preparedness and failures of cooperation in addressing COVID-19.

“The world has paid a high price for the combination of poor preparedness and failures of cooperation to address COVID-19.”

Behavioural science provides evidence about the effectiveness of interventions and policies across contexts and the processes required for change.

“Behavioural science provides evidence about the effectiveness of interventions and policies across contexts and the processes required to bring about change”

• cites [253] Girum T Lentiro K Geremew M Migora B Shewamare S Shimbre MS Optimal strategies for COVID-19 prevention from global evidence achieved through social distancing, stay at home, travel restriction and lockdown: a systematic review Arch Public Health 79 2021 150 34419145 PMC8380106 sourceNot checked yet

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Trust in government helps promote prosocial behaviours in the population.

“There is evidence that trust in government helps to promote prosocial behaviours within the population.”

New forms of disinformation through digital media are especially powerful in disseminating ideas because of their reach, immediacy, relative anonymity, and the ease of creating echo chambers.

“Now we are experiencing new forms of disinformation through digital media,231 which are especially powerful in disseminating ideas because of their reach (eg, Facebook has nearly 2·4 billion subscribers), immediacy, relative anonymity, and the ease of creating echo chambers of tightly clustered groups receiving utterly different impressions of the facts from other online communities.”

• cites [231] Iosifidis P Nicoli N Digital democracy, social media and disinformation 2021 Routledge AbingdonNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [232] Singh S Bagchi KKJ Facebook. In: How internet platforms are combating disinformation and misinformation in the age of COVID-19 https://www.newamerica.org/oti/reports/how-internet-platforms-are-combating-disinformation-and-misinformation-age-covid-19/ June 1, 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [233] Gabarron E Oyeyemi SO Wynn R COVID-19-related misinformation on social media: a systematic review Bull World Health Organ 99 2021 455 463A 34108756 PMC8164188 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [234] Gisondi MA Barber R Faust JS A deadly infodemic: social media and the power of COVID-19 misinformation J Med Internet Res 24 2022 e35552 PMC8812140 35007204 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [235] Belluz J Lavis J Joe Rogan is a drop in the ocean of medical misinformation Feb 8, 2022 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/opinion/joe-rogan-health-misinformation-solutions.htmlNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

One study in Italy found that poor public understanding of the risk of COVID-19 infection, even during the peak of COVID-19 incidence in 2020, was related to 11,411 people breaking lockdown regulations.

“One study in Italy found that poor public understanding of the risk of COVID-19 infection, even during the peak of COVID-19 incidence in 2020, was related to 11 411 people breaking lockdown regulations.”

• cites [238] Tagliabue F Galassi L Mariani P The “pandemic” of disinformation in COVID-19 SN Compr Clin Med 2 2020 1287 1289 32838179 PMC7395797Not checked yet

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The gender of political leaders seems to have had a role in the rhetoric, with women leaders more often concerned than male leaders about individual-scale effects and social welfare.

“we note that the gender of political leaders seems to have had a role in the rhetoric, with women leaders more often concerned than male leaders about individual-scale effects and social welfare.”

• cites [224] Dada S Ashworth HC Bewa MJ Dhatt R Words matter: political and gender analysis of speeches made by heads of government during the COVID-19 pandemic BMJ Glob Health 6 2021 e003910 PMC7849321 33514593 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [225] Johnson C Williams B Gender and political leadership in a time of COVID Polit Gend 16 2020 943 950Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

In the US, the political far-right promoted anti-science rhetoric, including opposition to COVID-19 vaccines and prevention measures.

“the political far-right has promoted anti-science rhetoric, as shown by their opposition to COVID-19 vaccines and anti-COVID-19 prevention measures.”

National policy choices made a vast difference in health outcomes.

“National policy choices made a vast difference in health outcomes.”

Evidence-based optimal behaviours for pandemic control include vaccination, testing, isolation when infectious, mask wearing, and physical distancing.

“evidence-based optimal behaviours for pandemic control include getting vaccinated and tested, isolating when infectious, wearing face masks, and physical distancing.”

• cites [253] Girum T Lentiro K Geremew M Migora B Shewamare S Shimbre MS Optimal strategies for COVID-19 prevention from global evidence achieved through social distancing, stay at home, travel restriction and lockdown: a systematic review Arch Public Health 79 2021 150 34419145 PMC8380106 sourceNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

There are many costs associated with the premature lifting of public health and social measures.

“There are many costs associated with the premature lifting of public health and social measures.”

All countries were highly vulnerable to pandemic-related false and misleading information.

“All countries proved to be highly vulnerable to disinformation and misinformation regarding the pandemic”

• cites [242] van der Linden S Roozenbeek J Compton J Inoculating against fake news about COVID-19 Front Psychol 11 2020 566790 PMC7644779 33192844 sourceNot checked yet

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Behaviour change strategies are most effective when combined and selected according to scientific understanding of behaviour in political and socioeconomic context.

“These strategies are most effective when selected in combination and according to a scientific understanding of behaviour in the political and socioeconomic context.”

Public attitudes are shaped by national culture, education, peer groups, social media, and leaders' actions and statements.

“Public attitudes are shaped by various factors, including national culture, education level, peer groups, social media, and the actions and statements of national leaders.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Public attitudes are shaped by various factors including national culture, education, peer groups, social media, and leaders' actions and statements.

Population-level trends conceal extreme strain felt by some individuals.

“Population-level trends conceal the extreme strain felt by some individuals.”

Widespread vaccine hesitancy in many countries was encouraged by a hostile coordinated anti-vaccine movement spreading false information and campaigning against mandates.

“widespread vaccine hesitancy, encouraged by a hostile and coordinated anti-vaccine movement that has spread dangerous and false information about the health risks of vaccines and has campaigned against vaccine mandates.”

Tight and collective cultures were more attuned than loose and individualistic cultures to respect distancing and isolation norms, leading to greater pandemic control.

“Tight and collective cultures were more attuned than loose and individualistic cultures to respect the social norms of physical distancing and to adhere to isolation when potentially infected, leading to greater success in controlling the pandemic.”

Social media had a crucial role in how public health and social measures were perceived.

“Social media also had a crucial role in how public health and social measures were perceived by the public.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Social media had a crucial role in how public health and social measures were perceived.

Social media enabled rapid orthodoxies that often delegitimised necessary adjustments to advice and measures.

“Social media left little room for the deep discussion of issues and enabled rapid orthodoxies to develop, which in turn often delegitimised necessary adjustments to advice and to public health and social measures”

Emphasis on liberty, especially in high-income countries in Americas and Europe, was widely invoked to reject mask and vaccine mandates.

“Emphasis on the value of liberty, in particular in high-income countries within these regions, has been widely invoked in these protests to reject mandates on face masks and vaccines”

These differences strongly exacerbated income inequalities because the online workforce is considerably higher paid on average.

“In general, these differences strongly exacerbated income inequalities, as the online workforce is considerably higher paid on average.”

There does not need to be a trade-off between saving lives and safeguarding mental health.

“There does not need to be a trade-off between saving lives and safeguarding mental health.”

• cites [268] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development A new benchmark for mental health systems: tackling the social and economic costs of mental ill-health 10.1787/4ed890f6-en June 8, 2021 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [269] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Tackling the mental health impact of the COVID-19 crisis: an integrated, whole-of-society response https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/tackling-the-mental-health-impact-of-the-covid-19-crisis-an-integrated-whole-of-society-response-0ccafa0b/ May 12, 2021Not checked yet

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Differences in national cultures shape national responses to the pandemic.

“Differences in national cultures also shape national responses.”

• cites [256] Gelfand MJ Jackson JC Pan X The relationship between cultural tightness–looseness and COVID-19 cases and deaths: a global analysis Lancet Planet Health 5 2021 e135 e144 33524310 PMC7946418 sourceNot checked yet

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Severe lockdowns had important social, gender, and economic consequences.

“Severe lockdowns also had important social, gender, and economic consequences.”

It is possible to keep schools open without putting students and adults at excessive risk.

“it is possible to keep schools open without putting students and adults at excessive risk.”

• cites [319] Lessler J Grabowski MK Grantz KH Household COVID-19 risk and in-person schooling Science 372 2021 1092 1097 33927057 PMC8168618 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [320] Zimmerman KO Akinboyo IC Brookhart MA Incidence and secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infections in schools Pediatrics 147 2021 e2020048090 PMC8015158 33419869 sourceNot checked yet

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Children face threats to immediate and long-term wellbeing from interruption in essential services, particularly in-person schooling.

“Children also face threats to their immediate and long-term wellbeing from interruption in other essential services, particularly in-person schooling.”

• cites [304] Barron GC Laryea-Adjei G Vike-Freiberga V Safeguarding people living in vulnerable conditions in the COVID-19 era through universal health coverage and social protection Lancet Public Health 7 2022 e86 e92 34906331 PMC8665842Not checked yet

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This monetary expansion resulted in an enormous increase in financial asset prices, especially equities, real estate, and speculative assets.

“This expansion resulted in an enormous increase in financial asset prices, especially of equities but also including real estate and wholly speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens.”

The relatively low US vaccine coverage compared with other countries is a consequence of widespread public distrust in the government and public health departments.

“This relatively low level of vaccine coverage compared with that of other countries is a consequence of widespread public distrust in the government and public health departments in the United States.”

An effective response to COVID-19 and future pandemics requires health systems that can deliver needed outcomes and support prosocial behaviours, not only a checklist of policy actions.

“An effective response to COVID-19 and any future pandemic requires not only a checklist of policy actions but also health systems that can deliver needed outcomes and can provide support to individuals to perform prosocial behaviours.”

Disparities in long COVID epidemiological data probably result from differences in base population, diagnosis accuracy, reporting systems, and health-care system capability.

“Disparities in epidemiological data are probably the result of differences in the base population, the accuracy of diagnosis, the reporting systems, and the capability of health-care systems.”

• cites [337] Crook H Raza S Nowell J Young M Edison P Long COVID—mechanisms, risk factors, and management BMJ 374 2021 n1648 34312178Not checked yet

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Without durable solutions, internally displaced people, refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and stateless people will continue to face limited or non-existent access to essential services even if the pandemic abates.

“Without lasting and durable solutions for internally displaced people, refugees, asylum seekers, undocumented migrants, and people who are stateless, they will continue to face limited or even non-existent access to essential services, including social services and health care, even if the pandemic abates.”

Social and financial effects of COVID-19 contribute to issues surrounding long COVID, including mental ill health.

“The social and financial effects of COVID-19 also contribute to the issues surrounding long COVID, including mental ill health.”

• cites [336] Raveendran AV Jayadevan R Sashidharan S Long COVID: an overview Diabetes Metab Syndr 15 2021 869 875 33892403 PMC8056514 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [341] Nabavi N Long COVID: how to define it and how to manage it BMJ 370 2020 m3489 32895219 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites [342] Aiyegbusi OL Hughes SE Turner G Symptoms, complications and management of long COVID: a review J R Soc Med 114 2021 428 442 34265229 PMC8450986 sourceNot checked yet

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Setting ventilation rates to reduce health risks rather than only minimising energy consumption, and requiring upgraded filtration, could help reduce disease transmission within buildings.

“Setting ventilation rates on the basis of reducing risks to health (as opposed to only minimising energy consumption) and requiring upgraded filtration could help to reduce the risk of disease transmission within buildings.”