A Novel CNN-GRU-Based Hybrid Approach for Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting

Abstract

Electric energy forecasting domain attracts researchers due to its key role in saving energy resources, where mainstream existing models are based on Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). These models encounter high-level of non-linearity between input data and output predictions and limited adoptability in real-world scenarios. Meanwhile, energy forecasting domain demands more robustness, higher prediction accuracy and generalization ability for real-world implementation. In this paper, we achieve the mentioned tasks by developing a hybrid sequential learning-based energy forecasting model that employs Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) into a unified framework for accurate energy consumption prediction. The proposed framework has two major phases: (1) data refinement and (2) training, where the data refinement phase applies preprocessing strategies over raw data. In the training phase, CNN features are extracted from input dataset and fed in to GRU, that is selected as optimal and observed to have enhanced sequence learning abilities after extensive experiments. The proposed model is an effective alternative to the previous hybrid models in terms of computational complexity as well prediction accuracy, due to the representative features' extraction potentials of CNNs and effectual gated structure of multi-layered GRU. The experimental evaluation over existing energy forecasting datasets reveal the better performance of our method in terms of preciseness and efficiency. The proposed method achieved the smallest error rate on Appliances Energy Prediction (AEP) and Individual Household Electric Power Consumption (IHEPC) datasets, when compared to other baseline models.